Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

[mooncliff]

Assuming there is no "juking the stats"*, Shanghai students are tops in reading, math, and science; the level of US education achievement is second only to the cheap oil and coal running out as a security threat.

"Highlights From PISA 2009: Performance of U.S. 15-Year-Old Students in Reading, Mathematics, and Science Literacy in an International Context," shows the U.S. now ranks 25th in math, 17th in science, and 14th in reading out of the 34 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/china...ry?id=12336108


*juking the stats
http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/20...ing_the_stats/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCNLiHmEUxA

And if you don't know about the outrageous things that were done to Adrian Schoolcraft, a police officer, by other police officers...
Click on PLAY EPISODE
Time index 16:45
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radi...-remain-silent

Basically, what is happening now is not really The Bernank's fault, although there is the biggest wealth transfer theft ever (the best way to rob a bank is to own it); the juking of the stats that has been going on for decades is collapsing.

[touchring]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

If they measured MoneyQ, the shanghainese will score even better.

[chedir007]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Mooncliff,

But did we not go through the same dance during the 80's with Japan? (Japanese students were # 1, Japan was going to take over the world and US was finished).

Now, Japan is basically on the precipice of imploding (I understand you live there and perhaps can confirm? Low birth rates, a dour outlook, Toyota's tipping point)

Those similar crushing societal forces will inevitably transform China down as well- but even faster.

For us yankees however, we will do the right thing - eventually (as Churchill alluded).

[Chris Coles]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Perhaps it is worth noting that by far the majority of hits on my own publishing web site that hosts new thinking being rejected by Western science are coming from all over China. They seem to have a thirst for new knowledge that was once a major feature of the Western economies; but is now largely extinct.

[touchring]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

You have to look at the real scores to see the trend.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc..._20101207.html

One should realize that Shanghai isn't representative of the whole of China.

The score for China as a whole might not be too far from the US scores.

[mooncliff]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Yes, but China is 10 times the size of Japan.

I meant to draw attention to the sinking level of US students because it cannot be fixed overnight.

I think there is confusion about the bubble and the education level in Japan. About 90% of Japanese students graduate from high school, which is equivalent to a 2-year junior college in the US. So approximately 90% of Japanese students graduate from "junior college". About 25% go on to a 4-year college, party, and nearly everyone graduates. They may not be bright and inquisitive, but the level of literacy is quite high.

Yes, if you look at that damn Japanese government debt, it is scary. And business is not good. But unemployment is under 6% and has been at under 6% for 20 years (yes, yes, it is a lie). More and more manufacturing is being offshored.
But I assure you that if you visit and walk around Tokyo, you will have the same reaction as all the people who have been here over the last two decades: "Recession? What recession?" Everything has continued to get better and better. Most old buildings have been replaced, per capita floor space has doubled, the trains are better, the taxis are hybrids, traffic congestion dropped 20% with the advent of GPS, the utility bills have gone down as the energy efficiency has improved, the food is cheaper and of better quality, there are more nicer restaurants, clothing is cheaper by far, broadband is $20 a month and has been that way for over a decade, the roads are in perfect repair and do not have potholes, the LEDs, air cleaners, refrigerators, water heaters, TVs, electric carpets, rice cookers, breadmakers, hot water pots, are much better. The iPhone is very popular now, but when it first came out, most Japanese said, "Meh, the cell phones here have been like that for a decade". The air is cleaner. Most important for quality of life, people are not working insane numbers of hours these days. In fact, I think maybe the Japanese are working less than Americans. None of these things is reflected in the GDP in yen, much less the even more distorted picture when converted into dollars. The unconscious assumption in looking at a flat GDP for 20 years is that people are working the same number of hours and that the purchasing power is the same. What really matters is the amounts and quality of goods and services and the amount of labor it took to obtain them. And adjusted for demographics, it seems that Japan's GDP growth has actually been the same as in the US and Europe over the last 20 years. The purchasing power of the yen has gone way up. Every Japanese person I have asked "Hasn't the general standard of living about doubled in the last 20 years?" has said yes. If I hadn't read the newspaper for the last 20 years, I would have thought we were in the biggest boom I had ever seen. I recently took a group from Washington around Tokyo for their first time, and they were in shock looking out from the observation floor of Roppongi Hills (which will probably go bankrupt now that the investment bankers are gone, and it will be sold... to the Chinese). Then I took them to the electronics district...

Recently, people have been talking about Hooters being the death knell since businessmen will no longer go to Ginza. That is a pretty funny idea. I have been to Hooters in Tokyo. It seats about 200 and is fairly bland. Bars in Ginza are going out of business because they charge like a thousand bucks, which is fine if you have a business account and are trying to impress a client. But that is like saying that all Americans live on Rodeo Drive. It is what the tourists or the expats see precisely because it is outrageous; what does that have to do with the everyday lives of most people?

I have no idea when the yen will blow up. One possible mitigating factor is that the Japanese bubble popped 20 years ago, whereas the European and US and Chinese bubbles are in the midst of popping and have no where to go but down.

Expats and tourists have very different impressions of Tokyo than if you live here as a local hire.

The reason that education is such a big deal is that it is not actually foreign labor that we are competing with. All of us are competing against machines. If you have very good engineers, you can have very good automation that can drive the costs down so far it is unbelievable.

I have said in other posts that I think the Japanese have been deliberately downsizing for more than a decade because they knew that peak oil was imminent, although I don't think they knew it would happen in 2005.

Except for the last 300 years or so, the wealthiest, most technically advanced, most literate place on Earth was China. It will become that again, but with energy efficient infrastructure and higher education to rival the entire rest of the world... with a few crashes along the way.

[mooncliff]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

You have to look at the real scores to see the trend.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc..._20101207.html

One should realize that Shanghai isn't representative of the whole of China.

The score for China as a whole might not be too far from the US scores.

Yes, that's right. Hong Kong and Shanghai are not all of China. There was a lot of immigration of the best and brightest there.

So the scores of China as a whole, not fully electrified, iodine-deficient, poverty-stricken, malnourished China, has scores about the same as the wealthiest country for 50 years the world has ever seen... that does not sound promising.

The education system in the US is so haphazard and unequal that it is a security threat.

The Chinese saying is:
If you want to make money for a year, plant wheat.
If you want to make money for a decade, grow a forest.
And if you want to make money for a century, educate people.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

What do standardized timed-test scores really mean when the "testing authorities" do not allow students time to answer the questions, or the answer that the student has is not standardized, i.e, not A, B, C, nor D? What happens to kids who are hungry or sick on the testing day? What happens when kids speak Spanish (or another major world language) and the test is in English-only? What happens if a hornet flies into the testing room, or the student's pencil breaks, or the student has to go to the bathroom?

[zoog]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

You have to look at the real scores to see the trend.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc..._20101207.html

One should realize that Shanghai isn't representative of the whole of China.

The score for China as a whole might not be too far from the US scores.

Doesn't it seem a little dubious that every other country on that list appears to be graded by the entire country, but China is graded separately by three cities? (Ok Hong Kong and Macau are "special administrative regions".) Might as well list the USA by only looking at New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

At any rate, the US education system is not broken, it does exactly what it's intended to do: turn us into complacent and compliant sheeple.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Exactly! The U.S. education system wants students who recite, memorize, and think-convergently. The "testing authorites" do not want critical-thinkers, slow-thinkers, deep-thinkers, divergent-thinkers, nor answers in Spanish.

Why do you think kids are joining gangs in California? The education system is an insult to student intelligence.

And where are the jobs for those who do graduate from American schools? --- at McDonald's drive-in?

[c1ue]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

But I assure you that if you visit and walk around Tokyo, you will have the same reaction as all the people who have been here over the last two decades: "Recession? What recession?" Everything has continued to get better and better. Most old buildings have been replaced, per capita floor space has doubled, the trains are better, the taxis are hybrids, traffic congestion dropped 20% with the advent of GPS, the utility bills have gone down as the energy efficiency has improved, the food is cheaper and of better quality, there are more nicer restaurants, clothing is cheaper by far, broadband is $20 a month and has been that way for over a decade, the roads are in perfect repair and do not have potholes, the LEDs, air cleaners, refrigerators, water heaters, TVs, electric carpets, rice cookers, breadmakers, hot water pots, are much better. The iPhone is very popular now, but when it first came out, most Japanese said, "Meh, the cell phones here have been like that for a decade". The air is cleaner. Most important for quality of life, people are not working insane numbers of hours these days. In fact, I think maybe the Japanese are working less than Americans. None of these things is reflected in the GDP in yen, much less the even more distorted picture when converted into dollars. The unconscious assumption in looking at a flat GDP for 20 years is that people are working the same number of hours and that the purchasing power is the same. What really matters is the amounts and quality of goods and services and the amount of labor it took to obtain them. And adjusted for demographics, it seems that Japan's GDP growth has actually been the same as in the US and Europe over the last 20 years. The purchasing power of the yen has gone way up. Every Japanese person I have asked "Hasn't the general standard of living about doubled in the last 20 years?" has said yes. If I hadn't read the newspaper for the last 20 years, I would have thought we were in the biggest boom I had ever seen. I recently took a group from Washington around Tokyo for their first time, and they were in shock looking out from the observation floor of Roppongi Hills (which will probably go bankrupt now that the investment bankers are gone, and it will be sold... to the Chinese). Then I took them to the electronics district...

Yes, the entire nation and culture of Japan are in a massive state of denial promulgated by 20 years of continuous government overspending.

Unlike you, I deal with those who actually own businesses.

Business is bad and continually getting worse.

The 'automotive miracle' is ending - while Toyota and what not aren't going the way of the dodo, equally so they are no longer going to be an engine of growth.

So where exactly is the money for future and ongoing overspending going to come from? It has been coming from you, and your neighbors, and your relatives, and everyone else in Japan. The "what recession" you see is the Japanese government spending your collective savings propping up zombie banks, building roads to nowhere, employing 10 civil servants where 1 will do, and so forth.

This is all great - but Japan is now on the cusp of having to either inflate or go outside in order to borrow money. The internal savings pot is just about empty.

So will there be a controlled devaluation? Or will it be a Weimar?

You get to decide and then to live with it.

[chedir007]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Mooncliff,

Very interesting feedback about frontline quality of Japanese life- thank you: I did not expect that perception was generally so positive- perhaps it is similar to Italy and Switzerland.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, but China is 10 times the size of Japan.

I meant to draw attention to the sinking level of US students because it cannot be fixed overnight.

I think there is confusion about the bubble and the education level in Japan. About 90% of Japanese students graduate from high school, which is equivalent to a 2-year junior college in the US. So approximately 90% of Japanese students graduate from "junior college". About 25% go on to a 4-year college, party, and nearly everyone graduates. They may not be bright and inquisitive, but the level of literacy is quite high.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

US high school education system generally has , as I understand, always historically been "atrocious" (I am painting broad brush here)- we have always depended on the single home runs (the Bill Gates etc, the super "outside the bell curve" individuals) who come out with transformative ideas and completely re-shape the world. Our effectiveness mechanism to the world is different from Japan- they need a literate population to take that grand idea and continuously improve it to super perfection (Lexus).


Regarding the fact that China is 10 times the size of Japan, I am not sure if size really matters.


I recall sometime ago travelling in Japan: Do the workers on the Shinkansen bullet trains still turnaround and bow to seated customers before they exit on to the next carriage?


Such wonderfully irrational and tragic behaviour: societal behaviours/cultural conditioning/tendencies is what shapes overall society's impact and longevity on the world stage imo.


(I would not be surprised if they don't bow now just as I was surprised to not hear that a single Japanese Toyota senior executive had committed "seppuku" to atone for their recent quality mishaps. Several decades ago this would have been standard expectation).


As another ITuliper noted, extreme rational obsession and excellence with "MONEYQ" is a challenge that will afflict China in imo.


Decades ago while ascending to the top, Japan never demonstrated a MONEYQ obession (read Canon President's Fujita Miturai's book explaining how shocked he (as Sales head) had to be to told from the US IRS that the sole purpose of a business was to make money! Even Sony Morita's first priority when he formed his company was to give his technical team something juicy/challenging to work on- not to make huge profits).


What about us Americans?

Yes, we have an obsession with MONEYQ but my personal conclusion is that the "Fear of God/Adherence to the Constitution" and "Fear of Lawsuits" have traditionally contained runaway behaviours (i.e. contained the FIRE industry) enabling the individual to remain empowered and US a powerhouse. It will need to reset again.



Having said that before I sign off to go and update my MONEYQ and read Gold/Silver updates, here is an "irrational"/off the wall link that may prove that I may be completely wrong on China and she may be just what the world needs right now:

http://divinecosmos.com/index.php/st...inasurpriseiii

[shiny!]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

The U.S. educational system is designed to "dumb us down" but there are still some bright students coming out of the system. Not nearly enough, but they are there. But as far as test scores go, the U.S. is not playing on a level playing field with the other countries.

In the U.S., every child is required by law to be educated, and every child is required to be tested at grade level. This includes all Special Education students: learning disordered, mentally retarded, you name it. Special Ed students who cannot read or write their own names are given the SAME TESTS as all other students their age, and their failing scores are included with those of the total student population. This lunacy, concocted by idiotic legislators who know NOTHING about real education, is a terribly shaming process for the children, and breaks the hearts of their teachers.

This situation does not occur in other countries. Special needs children are not educated in public schools, and even where they are, they are not tested as regular students.

My husband has taught at schools where Special Ed. students comprised up to 25% of the school population. This is a definite drag on test scores.

Think about this for a minute. If an infectious disease afflicted 25% of our children it would rightfully be considered an epidemic and a public health crisis. There would be a deafening outcry to find a cure no matter what the cost. But Special Ed? Who cares! Let's just let politicians keep throwing out money and platitudes and useless curriculms for "No Child Left Behind".

If countries were tested on how much they really love their children, the U.S. would score near the bottom. We indulge them but we do not love them.

[touchring]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Decades ago while ascending to the top, Japan never demonstrated a MONEYQ obession (read Canon President's Fujita Miturai's book explaining how shocked he (as Sales head) had to be to told from the US IRS that the sole purpose of a business was to make money! Even Sony Morita's first priority when he formed his company was to give his technical team something juicy/challenging to work on- not to make huge profits).

The Koreans probably got the formula right by striking a balance between making money and making sure the technical team is in tip top condition.

[touchring]

Re: Shanghai students number one globally in reading, math, and science

Bad business doesn't always mean the economy is bad and vice versa.

If you compare to Singapore which is suppose to have an "economic growth" of 15%, where the cost of living is similar to a medium sized Japanese city, and where janitors, gas station and restaurant workers are paid about $500-$600 a month.

Yes, the entire nation and culture of Japan are in a massive state of denial promulgated by 20 years of continuous government overspending.

Unlike you, I deal with those who actually own businesses.

Business is bad and continually getting worse.

The 'automotive miracle' is ending - while Toyota and what not aren't going the way of the dodo, equally so they are no longer going to be an engine of growth.

So where exactly is the money for future and ongoing overspending going to come from? It has been coming from you, and your neighbors, and your relatives, and everyone else in Japan. The "what recession" you see is the Japanese government spending your collective savings propping up zombie banks, building roads to nowhere, employing 10 civil servants where 1 will do, and so forth.

This is all great - but Japan is now on the cusp of having to either inflate or go outside in order to borrow money. The internal savings pot is just about empty.

So will there be a controlled devaluation? Or will it be a Weimar?

You get to decide and then to live with it.