Where will S&P be in next 3 months

[sishya]

I am getting jittery having been long S&P for sometime.
I am suspecting that a severe down fall in a combination of S&P and Dollar will happen before the end of the year. If S&P hits 1300, I am thinking of bailing out. Anyone seeing any signs or liquidity issues or care to comment ?

Adding the following Poll to get an idea of iTuliper's mind.

[charliebrown]

Re: Where will S&P be in next 3 months

I think the S&P will hit 1300, but maybe not by the end of the year.
As long as money aggregates are climbing the money has to go somewhere right?
Any rise will be nominal. S&P vs. CRB, etc will be flat to slightly negative.

[icm63]

Re: Where will S&P be in next 3 months

GOLD will fall back to $1000 before it gets to $2000

$USD rise is just beginning..only because the EURO will sink faster than the Titanic !

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: Where will S&P be in next 3 months

S&P will continue trending sideways at resistance throughout the remainder of 2010, eventually breaking above the April 2010 recovery high in January 2011. Gold and the broad market will make tandem moves higher during this period (with a gradually declining S&P:Gold ratio). This positive correlation will come to an abrupt halt when equities investors suddenly realize that owning the S&P at 1400 is the equivilent of holding an $80 billion Zimbabwe banknote. Gold soars to $1650 while the dollar heads South...like Antarctica South.

-joaquin-

[sishya]

Re: Where will S&P be in next 3 months

S&P already broke above April 2010 highs yesterday at around 1235.
I don't think I will wait till end of this year. Something does not look right.

I am expecting a pull down in dollar and S&P together starting anytime now.
I am going to move out my family 401K from S&P to MoneyMarket(90 days Treasury Bills), the end of this week.
I don't have the courage to short, but will buy Gold if it hits $1325(buying Gold during violent dips has helped me, lets see I will keep my fingers crossed but will not sell)

If at all I go short, it will 60% dollar and 40%(stocks that can be effected by inflation - retailers, restaurants, discretionary)

[sishya]

Re: Where will S&P be in next 3 months

If Gold falls to $1000 and if Dollar does not rise proportionately against Indian Rupees, you will see a huge demand for Gold from Indian population and there will be a very high
premium on the spot price. So I would not bet on that unless the Indian economy tanks. Remember last time Gold fell to $700 from $900(avg), Dollar rose from Rs 43/$ to $49/$, but that did not compensate adequately, we read news of excessive demand for Gold from Arabian population, whereas Indian economy was falling then. So I would not bank on a Gold fall much.

I will give a small example of Gold measured in unit labour.
When my father was a labourer(foreman) in 1972, his daily wage was Rs. 3 and Gold 22K was Rs.180/sovereign. 1 sovereign is 8 gms.
So it took 60 days of labour to buy a sovereign.

Now the average wage for a foreman is approx Rs.500. and Gold price is Rs.15000/sovereign. ie it takes only 30 days of labour to buy a sovereign.
Gold is much cheaper now(half price) measured in unit labour in India. So to be similar to 1972, either Gold price should double or labour price should fall half.

[sishya]

Re: Where will S&P be in next 3 months

I moved family 401k investments from stocks to Money Market today.
In my IRA, I am moving to Gold GTU(lowest premium to NAV).

It was a good ride but now time to watch and see. I may be
wrong, but time to book some profits. Economic data in US is looking up.