Korea reunification?

[mooncliff]

The leaked North Korea dispatches detail how:

• South Korea's vice-foreign minister said he was told by two named senior Chinese officials that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

• China's vice-foreign minister told US officials that Pyongyang was behaving like a "spoiled child" to get Washington's attention in April 2009 by carrying out missile tests.

• A Chinese ambassador warned that North Korean nuclear activity was "a threat to the whole world's security".

• Chinese officials assessed that it could cope with an influx of 300,000 North Koreans in the event of serious instability, according to a representative of an international agency, but might need to use the military to seal the border.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...eunified-korea

[Note that N. Korea used to have one of the most mechanized agricultural systems in the world until the oil they were being given was cut off, as happened to Cuba.]

[charliebrown]

Re: Korea reunification?

Hmm, might explain the seemingly unrational behavior of NK. Maybe these are messages for china against reunification.

[nitroglycol]

Re: Korea reunification?

Gwynne Dyer's take on the situation is rather interesting. Basically he thinks that nobody likes the DPRK's regime, but nobody wants them to fall because they're not prepared to deal with the consequences:

And what is North Korea’s Chinese ally supposed to do? Beijing is doubtless appalled by what Pyongyang is doing. A major war in the region is the very last thing it wants. But China cannot publicly condemn North Korea’s actions without risking the collapse of the Pyongyang regime, which is the next-to-last thing it wants.

Beijing desperately does not want its people to witness the collapse of another Communist regime: it is still haunted by the events of 1989. It does not want a huge flood of North Korean refugees coming across the long frontier between the two countries. And it most certainly does not want a unified, democratic Korea as its neighbour along that frontier. So it murmurs platitudes and does nothing.

Even South Korea is deeply ambivalent about the prospective collapse of North Korea. In principle, every South Korean wants a reunited country, but in practice most of them don’t want it quite yet.

***

In fact, everybody wants the weird North Korean dictatorship to survive—even the United States, although it would never admit it—because the level of uncertainty in East Asia if it fell would be utterly terrifying. That makes it very hard to “punish” the North Korean regime when it behaves badly.

Source.

[touchring]

Re: Korea reunification?

anyone saw the unthinkable? i think it's gona happen because of this.

[mooncliff]

Re: Korea reunification?

Yes, I don't think South Korea wants reunification.
German reunification cost West Germany 5% of its GDP for a decade.
North Korea is in much worse shape than East Germany. The human stunting (literally) alone will last for the rest of the century.
Dyer's, comments, as always, are sound spot on.

touchring, what do you mean by did we see "the unthinkable"... is that a documentary or movie?
I just hope we can get the best outcome possible for everyone, especially the poor North Korean people. When they see the outside world, they will be shocked. Being attacked and attacked can make you want to be a hermit kingdom, but not in the 21st century... so much human potential lost...

[raja]

Re: Korea reunification?

A American friend of mine teaching at a SK university says this guy's views are well respected:

Analyst View: N.Korea's diplomatic gesture and "rational policy"

SEOUL (Reuters)- The following is an edited version of an analysis by Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Kookmin University, of last week's bombardment by the North of Yeonpyeong island in the South and what to expect.
"Essentially we are dealing with a premeditated diplomatic gesture conducted in a somewhat unorthodox way ...
"The contents of the message were predictable and clear: 'We are here, we are dangerous, we are getting more dangerous every year, and we are not going to remain quiet if you keep ignoring us. Actually, we can and will make a lot of trouble, but nonetheless we are also willing to negotiate a price for being reasonable'...


more here: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUST...1?pageNumber=1

[touchring]

Re: Korea reunification?

The unthinkable is a movie.

Put yourself in the position of Kim. It costs money to wage a war, Kim is broke, he can't even feed his soldiers, let alone send them to battle. There's no fuel for trucks, let alone tanks and aircraft. The DPRK has virtually nothing worth exporting. So if you got nukes, what do you see? You see $$$.

5 or 10 years from today, anyone with $100 million, the price of a small Boeing, can buy one.

[GRG55]

Re: Korea reunification?

Gwynne Dyer's take on the situation is rather interesting. Basically he thinks that nobody likes the DPRK's regime, but nobody wants them to fall because they're not prepared to deal with the consequences:
Source.

A war would almost certainly spell the end of the North Korean regime, so it would seem that it is unlikely to actually start one unless it felt the regime was going to end in any case. One might consider the periodic escalations triggered by NK as its attempt to display its current level of paranoia regarding its own longevity, knowing full well that its "allies and enemies" alike prefer the balancing act status quo to the uncertainty of "something else".

I don't agree with Dyer's assertion that "Beijing desperately does not want its people to witness the collapse of another Communist regime". Perhaps more that China prefers that its citizens be reminded of "the old days" in China, in the form of the tangible and failed NK economic example, lest they consider objecting to any of Beijing's current economic and political policy prescriptions...

[touchring]

Re: Korea reunification?

A war would almost certainly spell the end of the North Korean regime, so it would seem that it is unlikely to actually start one unless it felt the regime was going to end in any case. One might consider the periodic escalations triggered by NK as its attempt to display its current level of paranoia regarding its own longevity, knowing full well that its "allies and enemies" alike prefer the balancing act status quo to the uncertainty of "something else".

I don't agree with Dyer's assertion that "Beijing desperately does not want its people to witness the collapse of another Communist regime". Perhaps more that China prefers that its citizens be reminded of "the old days" in China, in the form of the tangible and failed NK economic example, lest they consider objecting to any of Beijing's current economic and political policy prescriptions...

This has nothing to do with capitalism but democracy. Beijing doesn't want North Korea to collapse because that will put another democracy besides its borders.

Besides, North Korea can offer 8 million highly disciplined (Koreans are disciplined than the Chinese), easy to train and cheap factory workers at a fraction of what Chinese workers - which is a serious threat to China's manufacturing base.

[GRG55]

Re: Korea reunification?

This has nothing to do with capitalism but democracy. Beijing doesn't want North Korea to collapse because that will put another democracy besides its borders.

Besides, North Korea can offer 8 million highly disciplined (Koreans are disciplined than the Chinese), easy to train and cheap factory workers at a fraction of what Chinese workers - which is a serious threat to China's manufacturing base.

Democracy? The idea that a collapse in NK would lead to some sort of working "democracy" is delusional, just as delusional as turning Iraq or Afghanistan into "democracies"...and I imagine the Chinese know this full well, and aren't losing any sleep over that prospect.

[touchring]

Re: Korea reunification?

Democracy? The idea that a collapse in NK would lead to some sort of working "democracy" is delusional, just as delusional as turning Iraq or Afghanistan into "democracies"...and I imagine the Chinese know this full well, and aren't losing any sleep over that prospect.

Of course not by itself. North korea will just collapse and be incorporated into South Korea just like what happened to East Germany. China fears this.

Iraq and Afghanistan were never real countries in the first place. They are made up of different tribes that fight with each other even before the British and Americans came. If the Americans don't come, the Afghans will be killing each other.

Korea had been a single country for almost a thousand years longer than Germany or the UK which were made up of many states only 200-300 years ago - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goryeo_Dynasty

[GRG55]

Re: Korea reunification?

Of course not by itself. North korea will just collapse and be incorporated into South Korea just like what happened to East Germany. China fears this.

Iraq and Afghanistan were never real countries in the first place. They are made up of different tribes that fight with each other even before the British and Americans came. If the Americans don't come, the Afghans will be killing each other.

Korea had been a single country for almost a thousand years longer than Germany or the UK which were made up of many states only 200-300 years ago - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goryeo_Dynasty

I see. And so you must think that South Korea is a "democracy" then, and that will quickly rub off on those newly "liberated" North Koreans?

If the South Koreans think that re-unification is such a hot idea, they really should go back and study the German experience. That should put them off such thoughts for at least another 100 years...

I seriously doubt the Chinese "fear" any such thing. Any reunification effort would be fraught with great difficulties, and even if such an effort was to be undertaken it wouldn't take much interference from the Chinese to cause the whole affair to fail...

[mooncliff]

Re: Korea reunification?

I don't agree with Dyer's assertion that "Beijing desperately does not want its people to witness the collapse of another Communist regime". Perhaps more that China prefers that its citizens be reminded of "the old days" in China, in the form of the tangible and failed NK economic example, lest they consider objecting to any of Beijing's current economic and political policy prescriptions...

Good point. That sounds more likely.

[touchring]

Re: Korea reunification?

I see. And so you must think that South Korea is a "democracy" then, and that will quickly rub off on those newly "liberated" North Koreans?

If the South Koreans think that re-unification is such a hot idea, they really should go back and study the German experience. That should put them off such thoughts for at least another 100 years...

I seriously doubt the Chinese "fear" any such thing. Any reunification effort would be fraught with great difficulties, and even if such an effort was to be undertaken it wouldn't take much interference from the Chinese to cause the whole affair to fail...

The Chinese have gone through huge ways to maintain their alliance with the North Koreans.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...8J3IdRWQC06tnQ

Ten N.Koreans 'may face death in prison camps'
(AFP) – Jun 14, 2010
SEOUL — A group of 10 North Korean former refugees could face death in the communist country's prison camps after being deported by China, rights campaigners said on Monday.
The two men in their 50s or 60s and eight women in their 20s and 30s were caught hiding in the Chinese border city of Dandong and sent home on June 3, said the Seoul-based Citizens? Alliance for North Korean Human Rights.
The group said the former refugees, who hoped eventually to come to South Korea, would end up in the North's prison camps.
"In these camps, it is a matter of course that prisoners get beaten and tortured, pregnant women are forced to have an abortion, and new-born infants are killed in front of their mothers," it said in a statement.
"Moreover, many prisoners cannot bear malnutrition and intensive labour and die. There have been occasions on which 20-30 people have died in a day."
The rights group gave no further details on those deported. Seoul's National Intelligence Service could not immediately confirm the case.
Most refugees cross into China, where they face forced repatriation if caught. Many travel on to Southeast Asian nations in the hope of eventual resettlement in South Korea.
About 18,000 North Koreans have arrived in the South since the 1950-1953 war, the vast majority in recent years.
The rights group urged members of the public to appeal for the group's safety and release by writing to the North's ambassador to the United Nations.

Leaked from wikileaks, conversation between US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew.

http://kentridgecommon.com/?p=8812

MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Chinese do not want North Korea, which China sees as a buffer state, to collapse. The ROK would take over in the North and China would face a U.S. presence at its border. If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad for China than a North Korea that has collapsed, he stated.

If you haven't been educated and brought up in an autocratic state, it is difficult to understand what the Chinese leaders think.

This is like trying to understand why the North Korean govt must abort babies born with Chinese fathers, or infanticide (after they are born), when the Chinese and North Koreans are allies?

This is how autocracy works - by fear and by punishment, even for the slightest mistakes. The North Korean women that got involved with Chinese men must be punished for their illegal acts.

[don]

Re: Korea reunification?

There's is much about the Korean Question we, as Americans, don't know (me included).

Korea was for decades under a brutal Japanese colonialism. Many Koreans fled into China. Many of them joined Mao and helped to defeat Chiang.

Much of the resistance to Japanese occupation came from the north. Most of the collaboration came from the south.

What we call the Korean War was a civil war to re-unite the country, which following all the years of Japanese occupation, was cut in half by the victors of WW2.

"North" Korea was ruled by the China/resistance fighters, "South" Korea by the collaborators. Yes, it was volatile and part and parcel of the Cold War.

The Korean War was particularly brutal on Korean civilians throughout the country.

Much of this history infuses the present policies. North, South and Japan.