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Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

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  • Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

    China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says


    Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, discusses U.S. relations with China and the outcome of the Group of 20 leaders summit in Seoul. President Barack Obama attacked China’s policy of undervaluing its currency minutes after the summit ended. The G-20 failed to agree on a remedy for trade and investment distortions. Orlins speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)



    China will overtake the U.S. to become the world’s largest economy by 2020, helped by faster expansion and an appreciation of its currency, according to Standard Chartered Plc.
    “We believe that the world is in a ‘super-cycle’ of sustained high growth,” economists led by Gerard Lyons said in a report published today. “The scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous.”
    China’s economy will be twice as large as the U.S.’s by 2030 and account for 24 percent of global output, up from 9 percent today, Lyons said in the 152-page Super-Cycle Report. India will surpass Japan to be the third-biggest economy in the next decade, according to the report. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates China will overtake the U.S. by 2027.
    The world may be experiencing its third “super-cycle,” which is defined as “a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization and technological innovation, characterized by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world,” Standard Chartered said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...ered-says.html

  • #2
    Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

    “We believe that the world is in a ‘super-cycle’ of sustained high growth,”
    What are they smoking? Where can I get some?
    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

      It is possible that enormous increases in efficiency and vast speed up in research due to better communication could do it.
      In biotech matters I have been following, research speed seems to have increased about 100 times due to real-time collaboration.

      Certainly fossil fuels are going to be a problem.

      Then there is the possibility of a dollar crash... much more than the 30% Ben seems to want... a serious rather rapid devaluation would do it. Even a drop of 30% would effectively reduce US economy to 10 trillion.

      I am seeing estimates that in PPP, China passes the US in 2012.

      "... the world... still in the early stages of a power-shift as great as that which took place after the Industrial Revolution. Over the next two decades China and India will again become the dominant world economies, as they were 200 years ago."
      http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion...t-2131890.html

      http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...hin-two-years/

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

        Originally posted by mooncliff View Post
        It is possible that enormous increases in efficiency and vast speed up in research due to better communication could do it.
        In biotech matters I have been following, research speed seems to have increased about 100 times due to real-time collaboration.
        Ya, provided you do manufacturing. if you do services, practically everything can be outsourced, and everything you make (ip, media and software) can be duplicated at zero cost, so you end up with a hollowed out economy that is floating on air and fizzles out eventually.

        Originally posted by mooncliff View Post
        Certainly fossil fuels are going to be a problem.
        I don't think it will be a problem because as price rises, the inefficient automobile based economies will consume less.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

          Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
          What are they smoking? Where can I get some?


          “We believe that the world is in a ‘super-cycle’ of sustained high growth,” economists led by Gerard Lyons said in a report published today. “The scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous.”

          Over that time frame I agree with him that the scale of change will be mind boggling.

          As for "super-cycles", that might just be indicative that the emerging economy Central Banks, led by China, have learned how to blow bubbles even faster and bigger than the Greenspan/Bernanke Fed. From what I observe in my travels, and looking at the wreckage in the property markets in Dubai and other places, it is impossible not to believe that nearly "everybody" was drawn into playing the same bubble game. Given my belief that the last holdout in the global property bubble, the Pacific Rim arc of Sydney, Shanghai and Vancouver, are not immune from what has happened everywhere else, I see no reason to believe that China is running on some fundamentally different fiscal and monetary foundation.

          For those that try to convince me that "China is different", and its centrally planned, surplus generating mercantile economy will somehow escape the temptations of excess...I tend to reply with: J*A*P*A*N.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says




            Newly launch high speed rail cuts 130 mile journey between Shanghai and Hangzhou from 90 minutes to 40 minutes.


            130 miles is the straight line distance between Washington DC and Philadelphia.

            Drive time between Washington DC and Philadelphia.
            http://www.travelmath.com/drive-time...iladelphia,+PA

            Flight time
            http://flights.expedia.com/Flights_tfaOPHL_DDCA.htm

            Without high speed rail, the travel time over the distance of 130 miles will be at least 2 hours, even by air, if we factor in the time needed to get out of town to the airport and into the plane.
            Last edited by touchring; November 16, 2010, 12:18 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
              Over that time frame I agree with him that the scale of change will be mind boggling.
              "Change", yes. It's a safe bet that there will be much change in the next 20 years.

              "the world is in a ‘super-cycle’ of sustained high growth", that will surprise me.
              Most folks are good; a few aren't.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                Originally posted by touchring View Post
                ...Newly launch high speed rail cuts 130 mile journey between Shanghai and Hangzhou from 90 minutes to 40 minutes.


                130 miles is the straight line distance between Washington DC and Philadelphia.

                Drive time between Washington DC and Philadelphia.
                http://www.travelmath.com/drive-time...iladelphia,+PA

                Flight time
                http://flights.expedia.com/Flights_tfaOPHL_DDCA.htm

                Without high speed rail, the travel time over the distance of 130 miles will be at least 2 hours, even by air, if we factor in the time needed to get out of town to the airport and into the plane.
                There's tons of high speed rail in Europe. I've used some of it, and particularly enjoyed several round trips on the London-Paris Eurostar train...very civilized way to transit between those two cities compared to flying.

                There's also some pretty advanced high speed rail in Japan, the Shinkansen.

                So what.

                It hasn't stopped those economies from going boom and bust. It hasn't prevented the extraordinary over-reliance on property development to drive GDP growth...with all the predictable outcomes when those bubbles burst.

                When China's mother-of-all-property-bubbles finally bursts [and takes down Sydney and Vancouver with it] I can't see that any number of high speed train networks is going to make a tinkers damn bit of difference. China is NOT different.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                  Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                  China is NOT different.
                  That depends on where the world's largest capital pools go.
                  Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                    Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
                    That depends on where the world's largest capital pools go.
                    What the "world's largest capital pools" are doing right now, and will do yet again when China busts, is EXACTLY why China is NOT different...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                      What the "world's largest capital pools" are doing right now, and will do yet again when China busts, is EXACTLY why China is NOT different...
                      True enough.
                      Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                        There's tons of high speed rail in Europe. I've used some of it, and particularly enjoyed several round trips on the London-Paris Eurostar train...very civilized way to transit between those two cities compared to flying.

                        There's also some pretty advanced high speed rail in Japan, the Shinkansen.

                        So what.

                        It hasn't stopped those economies from going boom and bust. It hasn't prevented the extraordinary over-reliance on property development to drive GDP growth...with all the predictable outcomes when those bubbles burst.

                        When China's mother-of-all-property-bubbles finally bursts [and takes down Sydney and Vancouver with it] I can't see that any number of high speed train networks is going to make a tinkers damn bit of difference. China is NOT different.

                        It does makes a difference when you got 700 million people in South and East China, which has an area a little larger than France. A lot of people don't realize that the coastal part of China is so densely population that it could be considered one huge metro.

                        All property bubbles will burst, but this is only a hiccup that will rebound within a couple years, assuming WWIII doesn't break out.
                        Last edited by touchring; November 17, 2010, 02:46 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                          Originally posted by touchring View Post
                          It does makes a difference when you got 700 million people in South and East China, which has an area a little larger than France. A lot of people don't realize that the coastal part of China is so densely population that it could be considered one huge metro.

                          All property bubbles will burst, but this is only a hiccup that will rebound within a couple years, assuming WWIII doesn't break out.
                          How long it takes to "rebound" is dependent on how big it is allowed to get before it bursts. The Chinese authorities have a well deserved reputation for getting cold feet at the first sign of trouble whenever they try to tighten credit...they immediately loosen again and then goose it some more for good measure. If they do that a few more times this thing is going to be spectacular when it finally ends...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                            Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                            How long it takes to "rebound" is dependent on how big it is allowed to get before it bursts. The Chinese authorities have a well deserved reputation for getting cold feet at the first sign of trouble whenever they try to tighten credit...they immediately loosen again and then goose it some more for good measure. If they do that a few more times this thing is going to be spectacular when it finally ends...

                            Prices in HK fell like 70% after 1997, and has since returned and breached previous record highs by a great margin.

                            China is best described as Japan after the fall of the Tokugawa Shogunate thanks to American warships that turned up outside Edo, and then coming back with a vengeance, determined to become a new power, to erase the shame of the past. But the comparison ends here, Japan is a little country, China is tens times the size.

                            Inflation don't matter, bubbles don't matter, what matters is gaining power on the political, economic and military fronts.

                            60 years ago, this is call fascism. Today, they call it the new world order with "chinese characteristics".
                            Last edited by touchring; November 17, 2010, 10:20 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

                              Originally posted by touchring View Post
                              60 years ago, this is call fascism. Today, they call it the new world order with "chinese characteristics".
                              I can't really tell from where I sit if what I'm thinking here is so or not, but I've got a hunch that the Chinese people are being stirred (by their leaders) to anger against the arrogance of the American empire more so than the American people are being stirred to anger against the Chinese or Russian people or government.

                              This would suggest a dynamic where the Chinese people are being riled up, preparing for more aggression outside their own land, while the American people are being suppressed, preparing for a weaker presence outside their own land, except for continued military aggression against Islamic nations. My hunch is that this is a dynamic playing out over perhaps a five to fifteen year time span.

                              Perhaps someone with a different view can refine, or "roll on floor, laughing out loud at", this hunch.
                              Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                              Comment

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