Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I'm not pretending to know - but I do know that there will be a certain amount of oscillation in either direction, thus I put in a Jan 2008, 200 call / Jan 2008, 125 put position. I'm clearly leaning down, but actually see some opportunity to even hit both ends of target profit.

Putting in the sell order on the put at 20, but I'll probably pull the trigger if/when it crosses 16

[Tet]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Putting in the sell order on the put at 20, but I'll probably pull the trigger if/when it crosses 16

Good luck, Apple up pretty big afterhours, but these days it could be down big in another 15 minutes.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Getting pretty close to 16 - I've decided to sell and book profit, but reinvest 1/2 of profit into 100 or 105 Jan 2008 puts.

This will double up my # shares, but if the market keeps going it would make for a pretty sweet turn.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Well, Apple is melting down even faster than I thought.

Looks like we're going to have a full mean reversion to 95.

Original sell order at 20 was hit before I could change it - needless to say I'm no longer looking at the 105's as benefit ratio is no longer worthwhile.

However, October 100s still look interesting. Will execute if Apple pops back late in the day.

Thank you APVME - overall portfolio is up in the last 3 weeks thanks to this trade.

[rabot10]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I got an Iphone a few days ago – first few hours I was going to return it. Now I feel like it’s the best dam gismo of all time.

I think Apple stock is a little over priced 35 to 50 dollars - but who knows when the herd will agree with my viewpoint. Funny if I knew that kind of stuff i would have so much money that i would't post here.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Closed out of other side of Apple spread today.

Final tally:

Jan 2008 125 put: bought 6.5, sold 20
Jan 2008 200 call: bought 3.2, sold 2.7

Looking to see if Apple gets past its previous high, if not then reloading the spread.

[renewable]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I can't find the more recent 'short apple' thread that was started when the iPad came out, but it's interesting to review these older predictions periodically, what with Apple becoming higher valued than Microsoft recently and currently trading at over $250.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I'm getting ready to buy puts on Apple again.

From my view they are about 12 to 18 months from a reprise of the Mac fiasco of the 80s.

The recent flurry of Android hardware - largely from HTC (EVO, Droid, Dream, Nexus One etc etc) but also including the Blackberry Storm - is significantly eroding the Apple hardware uniqueness. Samsung and LG are also firming their grip on the low end market.

The iPhone fanbois are always going to be there, but the easy money is now gone in the smartphone mobile market. This is especially so in the US where AT & T has now removed its unlimited Internet option - the already high AT & T plans will now soar even higher.

Apple has made some interesting moves in the hardware side - they're now trying to achieve differentiation via internal development. The jury is still out as to whether this is possible; unlike Intel which was/is far larger than its competitors, Apple is actually smaller than most of the international cell phone companies - and these companies also have an array of service providers like ARM which aggregate their demand.

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I'm getting ready to buy puts on Apple again.

From my view they are about 12 to 18 months from a reprise of the Mac fiasco of the 80s.

The recent flurry of Android hardware - largely from HTC (EVO, Droid, Dream, Nexus One etc etc) but also including the Blackberry Storm - is significantly eroding the Apple hardware uniqueness. Samsung and LG are also firming their grip on the low end market.

The iPhone fanbois are always going to be there, but the easy money is now gone in the smartphone mobile market. This is especially so in the US where AT & T has now removed its unlimited Internet option - the already high AT & T plans will now soar even higher.

Apple has made some interesting moves in the hardware side - they're now trying to achieve differentiation via internal development. The jury is still out as to whether this is possible; unlike Intel which was/is far larger than its competitors, Apple is actually smaller than most of the international cell phone companies - and these companies also have an array of service providers like ARM which aggregate their demand.

Some observations:
- Apple has a big advantage of complete software+hardware control; this allows them to provide a very limited range of products that software developers have to target. For Android, Symbian and Windows mobile the target range of hw to support is just too broad for an optimised user experience.
- This causes a risk that Apple runs that they NEED to have massive success with each successive release of their Ipad/Iphone iterations. As soon as they make a big mistake, it'll have a substantial effect on their margins/revenue. (similar to what happened to Motorola and their RAZR devices).
- Competitors mostly have a big array of devices; while this broadens their focus (and causes the user experience to be less polished), it also spreads the risk of a cockup on a single device.

So while no competitor will adopt Apple's model of providing a fixed platform, and Apple retains their 'hip/cool' brand image, they will keep having big successes financially. Unless they mess up release of a new iteration of ipad/iphone/isomething bigtime. As long as Jobs is alive and in charge of Apple, I don't think that chance of this happening is that big.

Google seems to investigate this complete control over the platform route with their Nexus line. I'm not sure if their approach will be successful as they seem to simultaneously bet on providing Android to third party hardware manufacturers. I fear this double approach might prevent either option from being much successful.

So.. what is the biggest risk to Apple? Probably their dependence on being in the most expensive segment of the market. When we get a double-dip recession, they'll need to address this or their sales might get hurt bigtime.

PS. investing in Motorola doesn't seem to be a good idea to me; not then, not now. If you'd had to bet, bet on Samsung. They're in every segment and are very dedicated in coming out on top in as many market segments as possible. I think they're on their way to become the next Sony (or what Sony used to be regarding brand recognition).

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

- Apple has a big advantage of complete software+hardware control; this allows them to provide a very limited range of products that software developers have to target. For Android, Symbian and Windows mobile the target range of hw to support is just too broad for an optimised user experience.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say with this statement.

As I am now developing an app - for iPhone, Android, and Blackberry - I can say that the Android development is significantly easier than the iPhone app even as the Blackberry is more difficult than either. The iPhone troubles are primarily due to Apple proprietary issues like H.264 and lack of Flash.

Fragmentation is an issue for all of the companies/OS's; but again it is a function of how 'fancy' you want your app to be. If you're looking to implement an app with the latest and greatest - then you'd lock out all the older models whether iPhone 2G/3G or Curve 83xx/85xx or early Droid.

And furthermore I'd point out that the iPhone exclusivity with AT & T locks out a large part of the customer base: AT & T's actual mobile market share is about 28.5% right now with Sprint (the weakest link) at 13.6% and T-mobile at 11.7%. Verizon is at 26.7% with the remainder being various regional and pre-paid carriers (Metro PCS, etc)

Source: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/re...port_id=992034

From my own perspective - the Android base is growing immensely. Android has now surpassed Apple in market share:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/and...ata-2010-05-10

According to the study, the Android OS -- developed by Google Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!goog/quotes/nls/goog (GOOG 488.50, +1.49, +0.31%) -- ended the period with a domestic market share of 28%. That's up from about 20% in the December quarter, and is due mostly to strong sales of handsets such as the Droid and Droid Eris at Verizon Wireless /quotes/comstock/13*!vz/quotes/nls/vz (VZ 28.56, +0.22, +0.78%) , according to the report.

The iPhone from Apple Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl (AAPL 253.51, +3.00, +1.20%) saw its U.S. share remain relatively flat at 21%. The leader in the U.S. remains Research In Motion /quotes/comstock/15*!rimm/quotes/nls/rimm (RIMM 59.50, +0.39, +0.66%) , whose BlackBerry family of "smart phone" devices has about 36% of the market, according to NPD data.

Certainly the Apple fanboi base will likely continue to keep the Apple apps in the lead, but market share will tell over time. While I don't expect the iFart and what not to all migrate to Android or Blackberry, the major everyday apps like mobile banking, airline checkin, internet sales/auctions, social networking and the like will be ubiquitous: the cost to support apps across all 3 major platforms is anywhere from $20K to $40K+ depending on functionality and development structure - too much for 'solo developer' types but very affordable for any sort of real business.

Even the hardware side is fraught with peril for Apple: HTC is a formidable competitor with a longer history as a mobile OEM.

At present, between Dream, Droid Incredible, Nexus One, and EVO - HTC is carving a bloody path across the mobile hardware landscape.

A look at HTC's design history also gives an idea of the vitality of this company:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HTC_phones

Some 85 different phones put out since 1999...

With Google providing the OS and interface work, this is a real competitor.

Google seems to investigate this complete control over the platform route with their Nexus line. I'm not sure if their approach will be successful as they seem to simultaneously bet on providing Android to third party hardware manufacturers. I fear this double approach might prevent either option from being much successful.

The Nexus One was primarily a sales platform - the actual hardware is HTC.

And the internet only sales model failed. I've actually played with a Nexus One already - it is far better hardware wise than the iPhone 3GS (haven't tried the 4G yet) though the interface isn't as nice. The EVO on the other hand is very competitive: again not quite as polished as Apple in the interface, but the network is MUCH faster (note: not using 4G even - 3G vs. 3G in SF), the hardware (again vs 3GS) is vastly superior, and the monthly cost is far less (nearly 1/3 less).

For example:

The Sprint unlimited everything (mobile voice, internet, messaging) is $99.99/month

The nearest AT & T equivalent is $129.99/month, but 5 GB ration on Internet above which additional costs are incurred and also doesn't include unlimited texting.

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I'm not sure what you're trying to say with this statement.

As I am now developing an app - for iPhone, Android, and Blackberry - I can say that the Android development is significantly easier than the iPhone app even as the Blackberry is more difficult than either. The iPhone troubles are primarily due to Apple proprietary issues like H.264 and lack of Flash.

Fragmentation is an issue for all of the companies/OS's; but again it is a function of how 'fancy' you want your app to be. If you're looking to implement an app with the latest and greatest - then you'd lock out all the older models whether iPhone 2G/3G or Curve 83xx/85xx or early Droid.

From a developer point of view, Android might be nice because of the bigger userbase (however, do those figures include non-cellphone devices with iPhone OS?). From a user experience point of view, iPhone apps should on average be more polished, as the developers don't have to target as many different hardware platforms with varying specs.

This is an advantage for Apple that I think is both substantial as well as well as enduring. Apple doesn't need to be the biggest player (they didn't start as a big player either), as long as they can remain in the high-margin segment with enough appeal because of their brand image and polished user experience. Not having flash in Iphone OS is actually a good thing for this reason. So even if HTC will be successful with Android devices, I don't think they will overlap much with Apple's target audience.

Regarding HTC: I'm far from convinced at the moment that they'll become the player you envision them. They used to be big with windows mobile phones, which was far from successful due to various issues. The hardware they make for 3rd parties (like Sony Ericssson) is known to be of very poor build quality. Haven't looked much into their own branded phones though.

Then again, I'm neither a software developer for smartphones nor do I actually own a smartphone (currently a Nokia 3109 classic). So what do I know?

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

From a developer point of view, Android might be nice because of the bigger userbase (however, do those figures include non-cellphone devices with iPhone OS?). From a user experience point of view, iPhone apps should on average be more polished, as the developers don't have to target as many different hardware platforms with varying specs.

You are again under a mistaken impression: the hardware platform is irrelevant to me as a developer (for my app).

iPhone 3G is a different hardware platform than iPhone 3GS, in turn different than 4G. The OS (and its drivers) is what connects the software functionality with the hardware; in this respect there is no different between writing an app for iPhone OS 3.0 targeting iPhone 3G, 3GS, and 4G vs. writing an app for Android 2.0 targetting Droid Incredible, EVO, and Nexus One. Certainly for some types of apps - high CPU games or high bandwidth video/pic sharing, there are throughput differences but again you cannot control this as a developer. For that matter, there are significant throughput differences even between various providers, or the same provider in different parts of the US!

An app created for iPhone 4G only avoids problems on iPhone 3G by being incompatible via the OS difference, but then you've just cut off a big chunk of potential customers.

For that matter, Android can do the same thing: the Android marketplace is actually fairly evenly split between 2.0/pre 2.0 and 2.2

As for polished - that is a function of the app. Apple doesn't do significant quality control over the apps so much as content control - they don't test for mispellings any more than they test for speed and 'feel'.

If you have a specific example of a difference - I'd be happy to check it out. But so far from my own personal testing, I do not see any of the differences you point out between the Android and iPhone apps I use as reference points. Again, unquestionably the overall iPhone experience is better, but not significantly better (anymore).

This is an advantage for Apple that I think is both substantial as well as well as enduring. Apple doesn't need to be the biggest player (they didn't start as a big player either), as long as they can remain in the high-margin segment with enough appeal because of their brand image and polished user experience. Not having flash in Iphone OS is actually a good thing for this reason. So even if HTC can be successful with Android devices, I don't think they will overlap much with Apple's target audience.

I disagree completely. When iPhone was the only game in town, they aggregated all of the mobile gaming/social networking/app users. As other cell phone providers gain phones with similar capabilities, the only game in town gets split up. The cost differences only accentuate this.

Maybe it will be different this time, but it wasn't for the PC market.

Apple's products were markedly easier to use and nicer, but Windows crushed Apple in the overall market - relegating it to a small but rabid fanboi market. Even today the Apple machines are arguably more stable and easier to use, but Apple PCs and laptops simply don't have presence - no doubt due to their 2x or 3x higher cost.

Apple's share prices are predicated on not just maintaining its existing market share, but continued growth.

A failure to grow much less outright market share losses will spell disaster for its stock price.

An anecdote: 2 years ago, I was being constantly pestered to bring iPhones into Russia. I even had a customs agent offer to help me import 10 iPhones in my luggage, in return for him getting one.

Today, it is Nexus One and other HTC phones. And while you might not think HTC is a real player, HTC has far more experience actually creating cell phones than Apple.

And lastly - I'd note that are plenty of software reasons to migrate out of Apple.

One example: VOIP without having to be on Wi-Fi. Android phones allow Google Voice anytime; Skype on iPhone is only allowed to work when the iPhone is on Wi-Fi.

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

ah you might be completely right. Whatever happens, I think a fast-paced market like integrated personal devices (can you even call them cellphones these days with all the stuff they do?) is very interesting to watch. There are some online communities that discuss this stuff with a lot more depth than I ever could, like beyond3d.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Whatever my (or your) beliefs, time will tell...

More data for your erudition:

1) A typo in the landing page for an iPad app.

7wonder3200x266.jpg

2) Comscore mobile app usage
comscore21.png
3) Comscore mobile browser usage
comscore3.png

Bandwidth isn't a big factor in hardly any of the top 10

[renewable]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Report: FTC will investigate Apple http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20007531-260.html

The Federal Trade Commission will open an investigation into whether Apple is illegally using its position in the mobile software market to harm competitors, according to several published reports.

On Friday afternoon, both Bloomberg News and The Wall Street Journal reported that the FTC had opened a formal probe.

At issue is Apple's recent tweaking of its App Store rules. In May, Apple made changes that prohibit certain developer tools from being used to create applications for the iPhone and iPad, and on Monday effectively blocked Google's AdMob and other non-independent mobile ad networks from accessing applications on the iPhone.

Part of Apple's strength is iTunes (I don't know what proportion of their revenue though). Went to a small concert yesterday and all the unsigned bands were promoting their music with iTunes flyers. There may also be a certain 'stickiness' where people who have bought music & apps on iTunes will be locked in, as it's difficult to use what they've already paid for on non Apple devices.

The fortunes of Apple contrast strongly with those of the 'old' record companies:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE65A1XN20100611

Buyout firm Terra Firma has pumped 105 million pounds ($152.9 million) of new cash into EMI, sources familiar with the situation said, enough to keep the music group out of the hands of lender Citigroup (C.N).