Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

You're probably right on that. I'm throwing in the towel on trying to predict the price of AAPL shares... if I had real money invested, I'd have lost my shirt shorting them by now. Anyway, they pulled 'an iPhone' after iPod sales started to saturate. I wonder if they can pull of another 'iPhone'. It has to be really revolutionary if they do. My best guess is an Apple TV (not their set top box, a real TV) with some really cool features and good content deals with major studios.

Look at it this way:

In the US - iPhones are now sold by all major wireless service providers. There is no more 'easy' upside there. It is also notable that the addition of Verizon/Sprint/CDMA iPhone only bumped up Apple smartphone market share perhaps 5% from January 2010 to now.

Outside of the US, Samsung is now directly attacking the iPhone market. While Android has a much larger market representation, the majority of Android phones in the past were lower end - but this isn't true for the Galaxy family of Samsung smartphones.

Samsung also has both the cash and the proclivity to spend money on advertising; Apple is no longer the only ones splashing out big bucks for billboard, TV, and other ads.

I do think that the iPhone product is slicker than the Android ones, but equally are less useful/usable for expert users. I just went to an Android user's group meeting which had an HTC developer rep - what was primarily interesting is that HTC is opening up its ROM and Sense platforms to developers.

It is this type of access which encourages innovation. Whether this type of Open Source access will create a more competitive product for HTC, time will tell.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

A look at worldwide numbers as estimated by Gartner:

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1622614

Table 1
Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

OS	2010	2011	2012	2015
Symbian	111,577	89,930	32,666	661
Market Share (%)	37.6	19.2	5.2	0.1
Android	67,225	179,873	310,088	539,318
Market Share (%)	22.7	38.5	49.2	48.8
Research In Motion	47,452	62,600	79,335	122,864
Market Share (%)	16.0	13.4	12.6	11.1
iOS	46,598	90,560	118,848	189,924
Market Share (%)	15.7	19.4	18.9	17.2
Microsoft	12,378	26,346	68,156	215,998
Market Share (%)	4.2	5.6	10.8	19.5
Other Operating Systems	11,417.4	18,392.3	21,383.7	36,133.9
Market Share (%)	3.8	3.9	3.4	3.3
Total Market	296,647	467,701	630,476	1,104,898

Source: Gartner (April 2011)

Note the 2010 to 2011 jump in iOS, then the 2015 projections.

I can't speak too positively or negatively on Gartner's history of accuracy, but the phenomenon of 'levelling out' of Apple's iPhone sales is well recognized.

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

A look at worldwide numbers as estimated by Gartner:

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1622614



Note the 2010 to 2011 jump in iOS, then the 2015 projections.

I can't speak too positively or negatively on Gartner's history of accuracy, but the phenomenon of 'levelling out' of Apple's iPhone sales is well recognized.

Nokia and Samsung/HTC need to sell a LOT more Windows Mobile devices to get to 10% this year. With the coming push of WP8 by Microsoft and the lack of upgradability of existing devices, this is very unlikely to happen.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Nokia and Samsung/HTC need to sell a LOT more Windows Mobile devices to get to 10% this year. With the coming push of WP8 by Microsoft and the lack of upgradability of existing devices, this is very unlikely to happen.

The Gartner projection was from April 2011; Windows phones have been pretty slow to hit market so it is unsurprising that their market share is still poor.

The comscore 2012 numbers show a falling market share in the US - down to 3.9%.

Equally anecdotal evidence from models available in stores show a poor selection of Windows phones available as well as no flagship like the Galaxy S which Samsung has for Android.