Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Went to a small concert yesterday and all the unsigned bands were promoting their music with iTunes flyers. There

Certainly there is some benefit to having an iTunes distribution platform, but then again I suspect the goal is more due to the market penetration of the hardware as opposed to the software. And since we're talking about Apple, the possibility of some type of astroturfing using subsidies should never be discounted.

The music industry has long had both unpaid and paid representatives in concerts pushing lesser known bands; the bands themselves also have a strong incentive to conduct marketing.

The fortunes of Apple contrast strongly with those of the 'old' record companies:

There's a good reason for that: the iPod/iTouch/iPhone are simply institutional ways to steal music intellectual property. Jobs did a great job of fooling the music industry into thinking the iPod/iTunes would change the ongoing technology dynamic killing that industry - when in fact the agreement with Apple accelerated it.

Even for those who buy songs on iTunes, the dynamic of buying single songs has completely changed the record industry model.

No more can 1 or 2 catchy tunes be used to lure listeners into more subtle or complex songs.

[renewable]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Certainly there is some benefit to having an iTunes distribution platform, but then again I suspect the goal is more due to the market penetration of the hardware as opposed to the software. And since we're talking about Apple, the possibility of some type of astroturfing using subsidies should never be discounted.

The music industry has long had both unpaid and paid representatives in concerts pushing lesser known bands; the bands themselves also have a strong incentive to conduct marketing.

They're vertically integrated; use their own hardware, and their own software on top of an open source base. With iTunes, there is no intermediary taking a cut of the profits between the artist (or their agent) and the customer. It is argued that Apple don't let flash onto their mobile devices in order to stop people making iphone/ipad flash applications and just using them on the web, bypassing iTunes.

The main threat to Apple seems to be a hole in this vertical integration. Or Android becoming more compelling WRT their own web integration, due to apple trying to maintain their vertical integration / profit wall. An example is that Google seem better placed to have augmented reality on your device: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

cut
Today, it is Nexus One and other HTC phones. And while you might not think HTC is a real player, HTC has far more experience actually creating cell phones than Apple.

cut

well HTC seem to indeed be as good as Apple in spying on their users:
HTC integrates spying software into phone ROM

[DSpencer]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

These old threads are very entertaining to read.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

well HTC seem to indeed be as good as Apple in spying on their users:
HTC integrates spying software into phone ROM

This isn't the least bit surprising - why would a handset maker not want to know how the handset is being used? In the old days you had to hold focus groups, but today that bizdev degree of separation is unnecessary.

It isn't the same as logging GPS locations - though Android does the same as iPhone in this respect.

The difference is you don't have to crack open an Android OS to stop that.

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...7503dex992.htm

Apple keeps surprising. Phenomenal growth across their product line; 46 billion USD revenue for Q1 2012.

I'm guessing that with RIM going down the crapper and Nokia going all-in on an OS that doesn't have an established reputation (Windows Phone 7), Apple and the Android could pick up what these two giants left behind.

How they can further increase revenue and margins, beyond maintaining their market share in an overall growing market? One guess is that they'll launch iBooks with their own ARM-arch chip, saving money they spend on Intel microprocessors right now. This requires an OSX version that runs on ARM, or an iOS adapted for notebook (/netbook) usage. For low to mid-end usage, a quad core ARM Cortex A9 or Cortex A15 would probably be just fine.

Then there's the rumoured Apple Television (Apple TV integrated with a screen + ?). If they can pull off the contracts for serving content (largest collection of on-demand films, access to video clips, pay-channels) it just might become very popular too.

Apple and Google are going head-on in many markets. Nobody else can get even close to these two... Microsoft is investing billions to try and keep up, financed by their lucrative Windows and Office product lines. This worked out for gaming consoles, but will it work for phones, a search engine, an advertisement sales platform and serving media into the living room too?

In the end, I think Apple and Google are innovating at a speed too great for Microsoft to catch up. Meanwhile their lucrative base (Windows, Office) will slowly get eroded by these two giants on one side, and open source software on the other (the latter is mainly a threat to Windows Server and Exchange).

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Actually what is happening isn't RIM going down the crapper or Windows phones taking a dive. It is, however, about Motorola and Nokia getting pounded.

What's happening with relevance for Apple is the smartphone market is growing very rapidly.

RIM just isn't growing at all - perhaps losing some slight overall number. Keeping an existing 20 million users doesn't help though when the overall smartphone market has tripled in the past

Latest comscore data:

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events...r_Market_Share

Top Mobile OEMs 3 Month Avg. Ending Nov. 2011 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2011 Total U.S. Mobile Subscribers (Smartphone & Non-Smartphone) Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Mobile Subscribers
Aug-11	Nov-11	Point Change
Total Mobile Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
Samsung	25.3%	25.6%	0.3
LG	21.0%	20.5%	-0.5
Motorola	14.0%	13.7%	-0.3
Apple	9.8%	11.2%	1.4
RIM	7.1%	6.5%	-0.6

The above is for the 234 million mobile phone subscribers in the US

This data below is for just the smart phone market with 91.4 million users in the US:

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Nov. 2011 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2011 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
Aug-11	Nov-11	Point Change
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
Google	43.8%	46.9%	3.1
Apple	27.3%	28.7%	1.4
RIM	19.7%	16.6%	-3.1
Microsoft	5.7%	5.2%	-0.5
Symbian	1.8%	1.5%	-0.3

To compare, here is comscore data from January 2010 (also from comscore)

Top Mobile OEMs 3 Month Avg. Ending Jan. 2010 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Oct. 2009 Total U.S. Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Mobile Subscribers
Oct-09	Jan-10	Point Change
Total Mobile Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
Motorola	24.1%	22.9%	-1.2
LG	22.0%	21.7%	-0.3
Samsung	21.0%	21.1%	0.1
Nokia	9.3%	9.1%	-0.2
RIM	6.4%	7.8%	1.4

The above is also for 234 million subscribers, but the below is only for 42.7 million smartphones:

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Jan. 2010 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Oct. 2009 Total U.S. Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
Oct-09	Jan-10	Point Change
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
RIM	41.3%	43.0%	1.7
Apple	24.8%	25.1%	0.3
Microsoft	19.7%	15.7%	-4.0
Google	2.8%	7.1%	4.3
Palm	7.8%	5.7%	-2.1

Note how the smartphone market went from 42.7 million to 91.4 million is just about 2 years. RIM's overall market share actually went up from 2009 to 2011.

However, the US is just about hit saturation.

June 2011 saw 78.5 million smartphone, October 2011 saw 90 million smartphone - it is safe to say that the US will probably not exceed 100 million smartphone users for a while.

At the moment the smartphone growth abroad is now ramping up; this is also likely to hit saturation soon at which point the free ride for smartphone makers is over.

[rtchoke]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Aapl http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL...off&z=l&q=l&c=

About to partake on an eventful playe of parabola...

Or a screaming deal at 13 x free cash flow?

[lektrode]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

Aapl http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL...off&z=l&q=l&c=

About to partake on an eventful playe of parabola...

Or a screaming deal at 13 x free cash flow?

These old threads are very entertaining to read.

you got that right!
absolutely fascinating!

wonder if its time to short em yet??? (and whats mr mega think ;)

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

you got that right!
absolutely fascinating!

wonder if its time to short em yet??? (and whats mr mega think ;)

The AAPL bubble to me looks like it's ready to pop / already popping. Mind you it took much longer (and went much higher) than I had ever thought it would (I had guessed it would be around the death of Jobs).

Meanwhile, RIM and Nokia are in the process of burning to the ground. I wonder who will pick up their remains... It'd be very cynical if Microsoft could acquire Nokia's patent portfolio after planting their mole (Mr. Elop) who plays a significant part in the pace at which Nokia is burning down.

Who's benefiting from this? Definitely not HTC. Apple and Samsung seem to be in the best position for the next couple of years. Samsung has been the rising star of the smartphone market, and their consistent execution and quality has earned them a brand image that is possibly growing into something that Sony used to have during their good years (that's what I predict).

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I don't think the AAPL bubble is going to pop until the 1st world smartphone ramp levels off.

At present the adoption curve seems to be slowing down, but is still positive.

As noted above, smartphone numbers went from 42.7 million subscribers in January 2010 to 91.4 million in November 2011.

February 2012 shows 104 million - a healthy jump but of course encompassing that magic Christmas holiday. The May numbers will be more indicative whether smartphone adoption will continue its torrid pace - the absolute maximum upside being the present total mobile subscriber base of 234 million.

[sishya]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I don't think the AAPL bubble is going to pop until the 1st world smartphone ramp levels off.

At present the adoption curve seems to be slowing down, but is still positive.

As noted above, smartphone numbers went from 42.7 million subscribers in January 2010 to 91.4 million in November 2011.

February 2012 shows 104 million - a healthy jump but of course encompassing that magic Christmas holiday. The May numbers will be more indicative whether smartphone adoption will continue its torrid pace - the absolute maximum upside being the present total mobile subscriber base of 234 million.

you forget the upgrade cycle of iphone's. I buy them each after contract and sell old(poor countries) or use as other devices. my old 3GS, I am using as a Movie player using Airplay==>Apple TV ===>TV.

[c1ue]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

you forget the upgrade cycle of iphone's. I buy them each after contract and sell old(poor countries) or use as other devices. my old 3GS, I am using as a Movie player using Airplay==>Apple TV ===>TV.

The upgrade cycles doesn't grow Apple sales - it replaces 1 previous iPhone with another.

New smartphone customers are what is behind Apple's 'beating their numbers'.

[sishya]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

The upgrade cycles doesn't grow Apple sales - it replaces 1 previous iPhone with another.

New smartphone customers are what is behind Apple's 'beating their numbers'.

True. if that happens Apple becomes Microsoft of smartphone/ipad. That is still a long way off. lot of people underestimated, still underestimate Apple. I love their simplicity and ease of using for voice/data/entertainment etc...

[FrankL]

Re: Who said not o buy Apple? (You were RIGHT!)

I don't think the AAPL bubble is going to pop until the 1st world smartphone ramp levels off.

At present the adoption curve seems to be slowing down, but is still positive.

As noted above, smartphone numbers went from 42.7 million subscribers in January 2010 to 91.4 million in November 2011.

February 2012 shows 104 million - a healthy jump but of course encompassing that magic Christmas holiday. The May numbers will be more indicative whether smartphone adoption will continue its torrid pace - the absolute maximum upside being the present total mobile subscriber base of 234 million.

You're probably right on that. I'm throwing in the towel on trying to predict the price of AAPL shares... if I had real money invested, I'd have lost my shirt shorting them by now. Anyway, they pulled 'an iPhone' after iPod sales started to saturate. I wonder if they can pull of another 'iPhone'. It has to be really revolutionary if they do. My best guess is an Apple TV (not their set top box, a real TV) with some really cool features and good content deals with major studios.