gregor- oil production forecast to 2015 [with implicit economic impacts]

[GRG55]

Re: gregor- oil production forecast to 2015 [with implicit economic impacts]

re gregor's meaning- my own interpretation is in post #5, above.

re: commodity prices and zirp - i'm sure there are speculative momentum players in the commodities markets [isn't that what cta's DO? plus add the prop desks], HOWEVER i also think that commodities are taking on one role of money- they are functioning more and more as STORES OF VALUE. [i have been saying that about oil for years now, but i think it also is beginning to apply to other commodities besides, of course, pm's.] so the presence of the momo players will certainly drive price swings, but i think the big, secular, move is still UP as long as the fed [and now it increasingly appears, the ecb] continues to print money.

as to whether the world can AFFORD these commodity prices, i say that the world will damn well have to. thus, more and more of income will go to necessities, less and less will be left for discretionary spending.

The problem that I see is that "everything" is now a store of value play...and I find that worrysome. That the Swiss watch industry is on track for one of its best years ever suggests to me that even those products are now something that people are convinced is better than holding cash ["...after all Swiss watches only go up in price..."]. Fine art auctions are attracting handsome prices. Even the vintage car market is starting to perk up again. And we won't bother to mention Sydney, Shanghai and Vancouver property prices. Speculation is everywhere and, yes, this could go on for quite some time to come, as we have seen in the past. But I am easing over towards the sidelines and peeling off some of my commodity positions and raising my cash levels now. And I am perfectly prepared to acknowledge that I may be one, two, or three years early...

[jk]

Re: gregor- oil production forecast to 2015 [with implicit economic impacts]

The problem that I see is that "everything" is now a store of value play...and I find that worrysome. That the Swiss watch industry is on track for one of its best years ever suggests to me that even those products are now something that people are convinced is better than holding cash ["...after all Swiss watches only go up in price..."]. Fine art auctions are attracting handsome prices. Even the vintage car market is starting to perk up again. And we won't bother to mention Sydney, Shanghai and Vancouver property prices. Speculation is everywhere and, yes, this could go on for quite some time to come, as we have seen in the past. But I am easing over towards the sidelines and peeling off some of my commodity positions and raising my cash levels now. And I am perfectly prepared to acknowledge that I may be one, two, or three years early...

isn't "'everything' is now a store of value" another way of saying we are experiencing significant inflation? take your cash and turn it into SOMETHING, ANYTHING, rather than hold cash. you may be right to raise cash in the very short to intermediate run [1,2,3 years], but in the moderate intermediate run - 5 years or so - i think we have more inflation ahead. good luck timing it. i know i am incapable of that kind of timing.

[GRG55]

Re: gregor- oil production forecast to 2015 [with implicit economic impacts]

isn't "'everything' is now a store of value" another way of saying we are experiencing significant inflation? take your cash and turn it into SOMETHING, ANYTHING, rather than hold cash. you may be right to raise cash in the very short to intermediate run [1,2,3 years], but in the moderate intermediate run - 5 years or so - i think we have more inflation ahead. good luck timing it. i know i am incapable of that kind of timing.

While I am edging towards the sidelines, I wasn't planning to actually leave the game. And, so far at least, the coach* hasn't benched me either...

* that's Mrs. GRG55, otherwise known around our household as "The Minister of the Interior"...and much to be feared when it comes to financing of the realm decisions.