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Goldman's Chief Economist loves QE2

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  • Goldman's Chief Economist loves QE2

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-unlikely.html
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. defended Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s decision to pump money into the U.S. economy after officials in Germany, China and Brazil criticized the plan.

    The move will spur gross domestic product growth and reduce the risk of deflation, Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. Because the Fed’s target for overnight loans between banks is near zero, the central bank is doing “the next best thing,” according to Goldman, one of the 18 primary dealers that are authorized to trade directly with the central bank.

    “The widespread hostility to the Fed’s actions is misplaced,” Hatzius wrote. “Downside risks to the economic outlook have declined significantly. U.S. inflation is unlikely to become a problem for years.”

    E. Gerald Corrigan, former Fed Bank of New York president, said at the Georgia conference that he’s concerned the central bank’s efforts risks causing price increases that are out of the Fed’s control.

    “Even in the face of substantial margins of underutilization of human and capital resources, efforts to achieve an upward nudge in today’s very low inflation rate make me somewhat uncomfortable,” Corrigan, chairman of Goldman’s bank subsidiary, said in prepared remarks.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Gerald_Corrigan

    Edward Gerald Corrigan
    (born in Waterbury, Connecticut on June 13, 1941) is an American banker who was the 7th President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Vice-Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee.[1] Corrigan is currently a partner and managing director in the Office of the Chairman at Goldman Sachs and was appointed chairman of GS Bank USA, the bank holding company of Goldman Sachs, in September 2008.[2] He is also a member of the Group of Thirty, an influential international body of leading financiers and academics. (Volcker currently heads that outfit)

    ...Corrigan began his career at the New York Federal Reserve in 1968 where he remained for twenty-five years, becoming Vice President in 1976, and serving as a Special Assistant to Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Paul Volcker in Washington, D.C.
    “They are doing the next best thing, aiming to lower the bond term premium via purchases of longer-term securities,” Hatzius wrote. The strategy is known as quantitative easing because it targets the quantity of money in the economy. Traders have dubbed it “QE2” because the Fed also tried it last year.

    “We also disagree with the criticism that the Fed is ‘flooding the world with money,’” Hatzius wrote. One risk of the decision is that it will boost currencies outside the U.S., he said, which makes the goods of exporting nations more expensive for their customers.

    Divergence

    “But that is always true when regional cycles diverge, and it has little to do with QE2 per se.”
    Hatzius said the outlook has improved from a month ago, when he said the U.S. economy faced two main scenarios, neither of them good:

    “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession,” he wrote to clients on Oct 6.

    Based on what has the outlook improved from a month ago?
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