Threat appears to be bullshit

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Threat appears to be bullshit

I think the conspiracy-minded are wrong because we're never going to have many boots on the ground in Yemen, and the President has no compelling need to build public or political support for operations in Yemen. If you are going to invade and run a country (for whatever strategic purpose), then you need public support and at least temporary political consensus. If you are growing to blow up a few camels, or run a small-scale covert war, then you really don't need much public support.

Hmm... nice observation.

As a card carrying member of the Conspiracy Party, it set my mind to thinking.

Perhaps (I speculate on the basis of no evidence whatsoever) this means that the U.S. is building up this threat not to justify a major invasion of Yemen (for the reasons you state) but rather that the U.S. is building up this threat for some other purpose.

I had a vague memory of Iran being involved in this, so started searching for variations of "Yemen Iran". That turned out to be interesting. Now I have dubious evidence instead of no evidence (grin) ... progress. Consider the following articles found searching for "Yemen Iran proxy":

• Iran's Proxy War In Yemen
• US General Says Yemen Could Become Iran-Saudi Proxy War
• Yemen: Saudi-Iran proxy war or repressed minority insurgency?
• Saudi Arabia and Iran fighting proxy war in northern Yemen
• Diffusing Yemen’s ticking time bomb & the Iran-Saudi proxy war
• Yemen-Iran Foreign Relations
• Yemen: Iran Backing Armed Rebels
• Yemen: Another Proxy State
• Did Iran Know About the Yemen Terror Plot?

Granted, it doesn't mean much, as I haven't actually read the articles, nor can I vouch for the above websites, not being familiar with them.

But the gist of things I get from the headlines is that we might be seeing a pawn move, not a rook move (in chess terms.) Yemen becomes important for its geographical position threatening Saudi Arabia and its political alliance with Iran. Yemen is not a major piece itself, but a pawn intended to help get other larger pieces in some desired positions.

There, ASH. See how easy it is to concoct conspiracy theories?

[don]

Re: Threat appears to be bullshit

Or to put it another way, let's go back to pre-WW2 USA. Would Yemen be considered a threat?

Case closed.

[flintlock]

Re: Threat appears to be bullshit

Or to put it another way, let's go back to pre-WW2 USA. Would Yemen be considered a threat?

Case closed.

Ha good one!

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Threat appears to be bullshit

There, ASH. See how easy it is to concoct conspiracy theories?

Then again there is always the theory that Yemen is at a critical chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as expressed for example by F. William Engdahl in his post The Yemen Hidden Agenda: Behind the Al-Qaeda Scenarios, A Strategic Oil Transit Chokepoint.

[ASH]

Re: Threat appears to be bullshit

Then again there is always the theory that Yemen is at a critical chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden

Just because Yemen is in a strategic location does not mean we need a large presence in Yemen itself -- or a fabricated/spun Casus Belli to justify to the public military involvement in Yemen short of a conventional invasion. We have enough naval power to control that choke point if we need to; conversely, no potential adversary has anything like the naval power required to contest control of that choke point. (Yes, if a hostile power with access to modern weapons were to install advanced anti-ship and anti-air missiles in Yemen, that would be a problem for our navy... but this is headed more in the direction of low-tech nuisance. That's still difficult to manage, but is less likely to lead to boots on the ground, in my opinion.) The tie-in to Somalia is apropos, but I think Engdahl gets the chicken and egg wrong. Do we really need to trump up a pirate threat in Somalia as an excuse to station some ships off its coast? Does the average American know -- or care -- where the rest of our fleet is? Who, exactly, is going to contest our control of this choke point? I don't get Engdahl's fundamental proposition that we need an excuse to militarize those waters -- and that some power would call us on it, be in any position to object to the disposition of our fleet, and yet be satisfied by the anti-piracy/anti-terror rationale. I'm sure that we're worried about weak government in Yemen, and we don't want to see Somali-style piracy and Islamic militancy spread closer to that choke point, but the reason concern about this is growing could simply be that activity by AQ in the Arabian Peninsula, based in Yemen, is growing.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Threat appears to be bullshit

Just because Yemen is in a strategic location does not mean we need a large presence in Yemen itself ...

Well, no, probably not.

The differing views present in various forms in this thread as to what's really happening over there and as to what misinformation, propaganda and confusions are overlaying that reality, from whom, for what motives, to what audiences, ... are all sufficiently diverse and conflicting that it's difficult to have a coherent discussion.