Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

    There are many different kinds of LED bulbs for home lighting. Most of them are not very good yet, producing few lumens per watt.

    One short term goal has been to produce about 100 lumens of light in a downlight for 1 watt of electricity.

    100 lumens would be enough for a downlight in a closet.
    400 lumens would be enough to light an entranceway or a kitchen sink.
    600 to 800 lumens would be enough for general purpose lighting.

    Cool white LED bulbs usually put out about 50% more light for the same number of watts than warm white LED bulbs.

    There are many prototypes that produce 200 lumens per watt under stringent conditions. However, I had yet to see a bulb for home use that produces even 100 lumens for 1 watt until I saw this the other day.
    http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/i...8871&s=kitchen
    The bulb is really small, E17 socket size, with the head about the size of a pingpong ball. The daylight one above produces 550 lumens for 5.4 watts. The warm white one I bought produces 410 lumens for 5.4 watts, indistinguishable from the 40 watt incandescent it replaced. This light is on at least 12 hours per day, so saves about $4 per month in electricity for a payback time of about a year, and after that, I expect it to save about $50 a year for the next 10 years until it burns out, an annual 100% return on investment. But the electricity rate in Japan is about 30 cents a kilowatt hour, so your return will be less if your rate is lower.

    This model came out in the last month and so was quite expensive, about 3,500 yen, $40. However, hundreds of LED factories are coming online now, and prices should drop to the $10 to $20 range in one to two years. Once the price drops to $10, the payback for me would be about 3 months.

    Because of the many, many different kinds of LEDs, it would be useful to buy one now and learn all the issues of voltage, lumens, color, wattage, heat issues, cost, etc., but mostly how it actually looks when in use in your home. What it looks like in the store is usually not a good guide. After playing with it for a year or so, you will be prepared to make a good choice when the prices drop. You will only need to replace the lights you leave on for many hours a day; the rest can just be left as they are since there will be little advantage in changing them to LEDs if they are hardly ever on. Look around on eBay. You will be surprised at the huge variety of forms.

    The LEDs in Japan have been improving by the month, so I would not be surprised to see something like 200 lumens per watt in a couple of years, the equivalent of a 75 watt bulb for 5 watts.

    Unfortunately, I have been checking all the lights for sale on Amazon in the US, and so far, I cannot find anything comparable to the above Toshiba light. The lumen outputs per watt are much lower.

    Note that when installing an LED in any fluorescent light fixture that has a ballast/starter, the ballast/starter must be removed by an electrician or else the LED will instantly burn out.
    http://www.amazon.com/LED-96-Lumens-...7844432&sr=8-1

    If you know any electricians who need work, you might want to point out the kind of labor it will take to replace the millions of fluorescent lighting fixtures or remove all those ballasts.
    In our office building, they are considering that a regular fluorescent light is about $10 and must be replaced annually, and therefore, if an LED replacement is about $100 dollars but lasts 10 years, the cost is actually already the same. There will be savings in not having to have the lights replaced every year, not to mention cutting electricity use in half, and reducing the waste heat from the lighting that the air conditioning has to remove from the building. On our floor alone, there are 400 fluorescent lights, and we guesstimated that changing them over to LEDs would save in electricity the equivalent of the salary of one staff member. Final tweaks in color quality and brightness are all that remain, so it is time to test a few for a year, and more the year after that, so as to be ready for the huge changeover beginning about 2012?... just in time for the hyperinflation... might as well expend the cash you have on something you need...
    Last edited by mooncliff; October 23, 2010, 10:47 AM.

  • #2
    Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

    Thanks for highlighting this. I bought a test LED light about two years ago. It sucked but got me interested enough in the process to keep an eye on it. I go into a specialty lighting store every 6 months or so and check in with the owner about what's coming on-line. From what he's told me I think there will indeed be a sweet spot coming fairly soon to change over wholesale.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

      Yes, if you know any electricians who need work, you might want to point out the amount of work that is going to be necessary to replace all those florescent lighting fixtures or remove all those ballasts. In our office building, they are considering that a regular florescent light is about $10 and must be replaced annually, and therefore, if an LED replacement is about $100 dollars, the cost is actually already the same. There will be savings in not having to have the lights replaced every year, not to mention cutting electricity use in half, and reducing the waste heat from the lighting that the air conditioning has to remove from the building. Final tweaks in color quality and brightness are all that remain, so it is time to test a few for a year, and more the year after that, so as to be ready for the huge changeover beginning about 2012.

      Because the electric rate in Japan is about 30 cents a kwh, the cost of the LED itself is not as important as how much electricity it saves. Several restaurants I have gone to recently are fully lit by LEDs. They are so inconspicuous and so like incandescents and halogens that I did not notice they were LEDs until I looked directly up into the fixture. Since the lights are on 24 hours a day, the payback time must be very short, and by the time they burn out in 5 years, there will be really good ones to replace them.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Led

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

        Where I live in the US the current cost of these lamps ($50!) provides no reasonable payback. I'm starting to see LED packs that replace the trim and bulb in recessed fixtures. But for now, LED is strictly for the "Green" crowd. Get the cost down to even $25 and at least people would feel like possible trying one out. But like you say, as more factories come on line, prices should drop.

        On a side note I thought I'd pass this along to Itulipers. This was from an email from a friend.

        Below is a picture of a CFL light bulb from my bathroom. I turned it on the other day and then smelled smoke after a few minutes. Four inch flames were spewing out of the side of the ballast like a blow torch! I immediately turned off the lights. But I'm sure it would have caused a fire if I was not right there. Imagine if the kids had left the lights on as usual when they were not in the room.
        I took the bulb to the Fire Department to report the incident. The Fireman wasn't at all surprised and said that it was not an uncommon occurrence. Apparently, sometimes when the bulb burns out there is a chance that the ballast can start a fire. He told me that the Fire Marshall had issued reports about the dangers of these bulbs.
        Upon doing some Internet research, it seems that bulbs made by "Globe" in China seem to have the lion's share of problems. Lots of fires have been blamed on misuse of CFL bulbs, like using them in recessed lighting, pot lights, dimmers or in track lighting. Mine was installed in a normal light socket.
        I bought these at Wal-Mart. I will be removing all the Globe bulbs from my house
        The picture basically showed a CFL with a hole burned in the side of it.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

          Unfortunately, I have been checking all the lights for sale on Amazon in the US, and so far, I cannot find anything comparable to the above Toshiba light. The lumen outputs per watt are much lower.
          I also look every few months, and have yet to see anything comparable on Amazon.com or other U.S. sites.

          The compact fluorescent bulbs dominate the energy sensitive market in America, which will make it harder for LED bulbs here.

          LED bulbs have taken the hand held flashlight market by storm here. One of my most recent new toys is a Fenix TK45 Cree XP-G R5 LED Flashlight, Maximum 760 Lumens.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
            I also look every few months, and have yet to see anything comparable on Amazon.com or other U.S. sites.

            The compact fluorescent bulbs dominate the energy sensitive market in America, which will make it harder for LED bulbs here.

            LED bulbs have taken the hand held flashlight market by storm here. One of my most recent new toys is a Fenix TK45 Cree XP-G R5 LED Flashlight, Maximum 760 Lumens.
            I use an LED flashlight in the course of my work every day. A tiny lightweight flashlight now puts out the same light as one of those huge Maglights used to. And the batteries last for weeks, despite heavy use. What I can't figure out is if my twin AA flashlight is so powerful and cheap, why are the 120v lamps so expensive and weak?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

              Originally posted by oddlots View Post
              Thanks for highlighting this.
              Good pun!

              Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                Wow, that is scary.

                We had our house wired with a security system with fire sensors about 20 years ago. Totally worthwhile. It cut our homeowners insurance some, but mostly it is good for peace of mind. For the first time in 45 years, someone tried to break in. Joke would have been on him since we have nothing to steal... unless he wants a whole bunch of old paperbacks! He tripped the alarm and took off.

                I don't know why there are so many types of really good LEDs by Toshiba, Sharp, and Panasonic that are not available outside Japan.
                Maybe it is because Japan is 100V? Or patent problems?
                I have had a perfectly fine Toshiba 350 lumen warm white LED over my kitchen sink for a year now, and it is on sale for $20. Has paid for itself already. Cannot find anything comparable on eBay or Amazon in the US.

                If we have nasty inflation, we will get less for our money, so I have been trying to spend to get expenses down at my mom's house in Hawaii over the next decade. We will still need light, hot water, electricity, etc., so if I can pay for something now that drastically reduces expenses during the next leg down, I am doing that. The photovoltaics have dropped by half in the last year, so I can install a system to produce about double the electricity we use now, covering any future increased demand, for $10,000, even without tax credits. I am actually thinking about not taking the credits because I am sure they are not unlimited, and I would not want to deny the funds to someone who needs them. Once I have installed the photovoltaics, the annual cost of my mom's house, taxes, insurance, maintenance on roof and paint job, water, absolutely everything, will have gone from $12,000 a year to $4,000 a year, with no change in standard of living. That should just about keep pace with the pension cuts she is gonna face.
                When I told her four years ago that we were going to have a depression and her pension was going to get cut in half, I sounded crazy. Now she is very proactive.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                  Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                  What I can't figure out is if my twin AA flashlight is so powerful and cheap, why are the 120v lamps so expensive and weak?
                  The fundamental advantage that LED's have over incandescent and fluorescent is that the active light emitting element is smaller. The total amount of light, integrated over the entire sphere, of LED lights is still having difficulty competing with incandescent and fluorescent bulbs, but a focused beam can be formed with a more accurate shape using a smaller reflector.

                  Most interior lighting uses require high total output over a wide area, not a spot beam.

                  The less expensive LED flashlights have less total light output, but focus it better in a conveniently small flashlight package.

                  The more expensive LED flashlights (such as the Fenix TK45 I linked above, costing $150) have the total light output, but use leading edge LED lamps that still cost too much money to compete in the home lighting market. No one is going to spend $150 for a dang light bulb.
                  Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                    I don't know why there are so many types of really good LEDs by Toshiba, Sharp, and Panasonic that are not available outside Japan.
                    Are compact fluorescents sold in Japan?

                    If not, this could explain the difference.
                    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                      I don't know why there is this lag. It seems to me to be similar to the lag in CFLs. In Japan, they were in widespread use with very good light quality nearly indistinguishable from an incandescent, 10 years ago, but at $20. They seem to me to have gotten to that level on the US market only 2 years ago.

                      By the way, did you hear this about Maglite? Still made in the USA!
                      http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=130197557

                      ... except for the LED!

                      It is not just the LEDs, it is the hot water dispensers, the air conditioners/heat pumps, the LED TVs, the refrigerators... everything in Japan is driven by the 30 cent per kilowatt hour high electricity rate... and yet, strangely, devices are often not that much more expensive.
                      I have a 16 year old Sharp air conditioner/heat pump. It was $1000, but is so efficient that at US rate of 10 cents per kilowatt hour, I could have run it during this past hottest summer in 113 years 24 hours a day for 70 cents per day to air condition 600 square feet. The chip died once, but other than that, it works nearly as well as when I first got it.

                      The current most efficient air conditioner heat pump heater, at US 10 cents per kwh, runs at 2 cents per hour.
                      Last edited by mooncliff; October 23, 2010, 11:52 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                        Yes, they have been as good as they are in the US now, but they were like that 10 years ago, although at $20 each.

                        If I could have sent some to my family, I would have, but Japan is 100V and the US is 120V.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                          It is not just the LEDs, it is the hot water dispensers, the air conditioners/heat pumps, the LED TVs, the refrigerators... everything in Japan is driven by the 30 cent per kilowatt hour high electricity rate... and yet, strangely, devices are often not that much more expensive.
                          Yeah -- I priced out a Japanese mini-split air conditioner for my Texas trailer, but at 10 cent per kwh, it wasn't worth throwing away the perfectly fine, nearly new, air conditioner that came with the trailer. I live right over the Barnett Shale Natural Gas formation, which powers most of the local electricity generators near me, so I don't expect my electricity prices to spike permanently upwards. Better to keep using the inefficient air conditioner I have until it gets old enough to replace, then perhaps get an efficient Japanese heat pump.
                          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                            Wow, 10 cents a kwh...

                            In Hawaii, it has been like 25 cents for a long time, spiking to 30 cents or more when we had the oil spike because 70% to 100% of the electricity is from oil, depending on island. When the next oil spike that EJ talks about in his book comes, yikes, 40 or 50 cents.

                            In a similar vein, when gasoline first went over $1 a gallon on the mainland, everyone screamed... people in Hawaii thought this was kinda funny since we just looked at each other and said "But it has been like that for years".

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: LED bulb passes 1 watt/100 lumen milestone

                              Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                              Where I live in the US the current cost of these lamps ($50!) provides no reasonable payback. I'm starting to see LED packs that replace the trim and bulb in recessed fixtures. But for now, LED is strictly for the "Green" crowd. Get the cost down to even $25 and at least people would feel like possible trying one out. But like you say, as more factories come on line, prices should drop.

                              On a side note I thought I'd pass this along to Itulipers. This was from an email from a friend.



                              The picture basically showed a CFL with a hole burned in the side of it.
                              Did the fire burn off the United Laboratories (UL) insignia?
                              Ed.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X