If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Really now, what are some practical things that can be done in this environment?

When a tsunami is coming, either heading for high ground or deep water works.

In general, almost every situation has some survivors. Most situations even have some who do well. Almost always, those who figured out what was happening did better.

You too can survive, even do well. It begins with awareness and a confidence that you will adapt and thrive in various, changing circumstances. Those of us who have already made several major changes in our life, starting at a young age, surviving and thriving where others did not, do have an advantage here. We do not hide our head in the sand, but rather greet the new challenge as yet another opportunity. But it is an advantage that anyone can obtain, if they have a mind to do so. Look to the future changes for ways to bend them to your will; you will see more opportunity that way than if you bury your head in the sand.

Man with eyes open sees more than man with eyes closed.

Perhaps this is why I make some effort to describe what I anticipate as clearly as I can. I doubt I will be particularly accurate. My forecasting record probably sucks. It is a manifestation of the energy I am currently spending on peering into the fog, that I might make out the shapes of things.

I do not sense doom. I sense change. This energizes me.

[karim0028]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

So am I, Karim. Yes, your are correct in suspecting that I was not realizing this as I wrote. Your avatar had me semi-consciously responding as if to an Egyptian.

A little bit of both Egyptian/American.

[BillBoard]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

I do not sense doom. I sense change. This energizes me.

For the time being I am pretty comfortable, maybe that is why I am not too happy about the coming changes.

But you are right, I am trying to prepare for the coming changes, hence the publishing of this thread seeking knowledge and opinions.

[shiny!]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

I highly recommend ferfal's blog about surviving the hyperinflation in Argentina:

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

He gives detailed descriptions about every aspect of life there as their economy, then their society, went through upheaval. How people suffered then adapted.

Odd things, such as people no longer stopping at red lights for fear of carjackers. The organization of the black markets that sprung up. He gives lots of information about the preps that helped, the ones that didn't, and the little things that made life so much easier and safer but we don't think about getting them until it's too late.

One thing he pointed out was that people who lived in isolated, rural areas fared worse than the people in the cities. Roaming gangs combed the countryside looking for remote homes and farms. There they would do home invasions, kill the families and live in their homes until supplies ran out, then move on... Being so isolated, there were no neighbors or nearby law enforcement to call. And no matter how many guns people have, thinking it's enough to protect their home, sooner or later they will fall asleep, or be in the wrong place when the gang strikes, or be outnumbered...

Ever since I read that, I stopped fretting on the fact that I don't have enough money to buy land and be totally self-sufficient.

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Well, try to live on love. I went that route. I thought sex was more important than money. And then one day, out of the blue, divorce papers on the breakfast table, and after making-love. And I was the male!

Don't give me this pot-head or adolescent crap that you can live on love. FORGET IT. And forget faith too! At age 62, I don't trust anything, or anyone.

SS

is

Mogambo ?

Hey Billboard, one thing always leads to another. In terms of networking, when your current neighbor leaves, maybe get to know the new one, and all of the other neighbors in your vicinity...even your estranged neighbors like one who doesn't use a pooper scooper...even if you have to crawl through concertina wire and tip-toe past claymores to reach their front door. In the dire scenario you seem to be anticipating, neighbors become your security force, along with additional benefits. If they appear stoggy or indifferent now, I assure you they won't be if/when....

For peace of mind, I suggest developing as many local relationships as possible, all varieties.

-joaquin-

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

SS

is

Mogombo ?

No way!

Where are the Infamous Mogambo Guru Outrageous Acronyms (IMGOA's)?

[Jeff]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

I'm no Pollyanna, but I've got to say, I just don't see most Americans behind the barricades. I've spent at least part of the year in fairly rural parts of Maine for about the last decade, and have family connections going back centuries. These people are simple not going to change much when it all goes to hell.

Live off the grid? What grid? We don't need no stinking grid! Almost to a man, the people I know in Maine do a few things:
Heat their homes by harvesting their own woodlots. Every Mainer has one.
Live out of their gardens and canning most of the year.
Jack enough deer, moose and whatever is around to add meat to the pot.
Fish, lobster, clam, collect mussels and otherwise take what the shoreline gives up.
Snowshoe, walk, ride (horses), skate, row or sail when the truck shits the bed which is pretty often.
Move in with kin when times get tight.
Put up a stranger in need. Way more often and in greater numbers than any cynic (I could name on this board) could even imagine.

These people are technically some of the poorest in the US, but I'd take my chances in Maine over a hell of a lot of other places in the US full of people who swear they are rugged individualists, but would starve when the power for the microwave goes out. It's not going to be the tough acting blow hards who come through this national cleansing decade the better for it. Most likely shoot each other attacking imaginary looters. The kind people, those who share, those with heart, and those who know how to hit the left ventricle of a doe at 400 yards will thrive. Just don't mistake human kindness for weakness. And never mistake pigheaded selfish independence for some kind of American heroism.

A lot of Americans will look a lot like Mainers in the coming years, and a good thing too.

[ggirod]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

So no matter how much you may prepare you will be going through some really hard times. But I agree with Jeff, developing a network of people that may help you survive and prosper is not a bad idea, this may have to be the right time to begin making many new friends that have varied talent and skills. If you have any idea in how to develop such a type of network and you want to tells me, I am all ears.

IMHO the Transition Towns movement is one of the best approaches to developing the network you envision. A Transition Town is a local interdependent network of people who work together to make the community more resilient so that the consequences of peak oil and economic failure need not be a catastrophe. Instead, by preparing in advance, by supporting/preferring local resources, by re-establishing the mutual trust that made people in communities work together in times past, and by supporting and encouraging, pre-need, the development of sustainable infrastructure to provide critical needs a transition town becomes increasingly self-sufficient in the things that matter. Then, when some flavor of collapse occurs the town is already prepared and able to thrive.

Again, IMHO, living in a transition town environment may present considerable improvements in quality of life for the community though energy and economic constraints would make life there markedly different. Necessities can be provided along with a supportive living environment as an alternative to the suffering and decay that will be commonplace in areas lacking such social fabric.

Transition towns can arise in urban areas or neighborhoods, small towns, and rural areas. The whole idea is to (re)establish the trust and interdependence that makes communities work together -- not a trust in government or other overreaching institutions, but trust in each other and local institutions created to solve problems.
I am a relative newbie in the Transition Town topic, but this book covers it pretty well.

Also, articles on The Automatic Earth are a great resource in understanding the problem and some solutions and Nicole Foss (Stoneleigh) has a page with lots of resources.

Finally, a good series of videos is available here.....

[Kadriana]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

So no matter how much you may prepare you will be going through some really hard times. But I agree with Jeff, developing a network of people that may help you survive and prosper is not a bad idea, this may have to be the right time to begin making many new friends that have varied talent and skills. If you have any idea in how to develop such a type of network and you want to tells me, I am all ears.

Churches are good places for building up a social network but a lot of people aren't religious.

Learn all the people in your area that sell eggs or have a vegetable stand. Most farmers are hard workers and love to talk about what they grow/raise. You can ask them when they're produce will be ready and if you develop a good relationship, you'll get the best product.

Conservation clubs might be a good idea. Most people who belong to a conservation club also own guns and know how to hunt. They also tend to be very talkative and welcoming people. If you don't know how to shoot, think about taking a gun class. It's a great way to learn a new skill and meet a lot of people.

Frequent your local pawn shops and scrap yards. If for reason you loose your job, then you can always earn a little cash by finding things at garage sales and selling or scraping them. I have a brother-in-law that has made quite a bit by scraping materials.

Basically, look at the skills that you think might be handy if things get rough for a while and then find people who have perfected those skills.

[cpnscarlet]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

If you're going to pick something, you have to go with vodka. It has 101 uses and lets be honest, the one food item gardeners never have a shortage of is tomatoes.

Every time gold/silver takes a nice move up, I add a little something to the food stores (usually another case of canned something or some freezer items), turn some of the paper profits into physical, and buy another big bottle of booze and throw it into the crawl space! Do any of you store more than 40 gallons of gasoline on your property? How are you doing that/preserving it?

[ggirod]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Do any of you store more than 40 gallons of gasoline on your property? How are you doing that/preserving it?

I have but 20 gallons of gasoline in my stash, but if you want to keep 40 gallons in a minimum of tanks you could go to a junkyard, get one or two large vehicle gas tanks totaling or exceeding 40 gallons, seal up the fuel pump/sending unit opening and the vent opening, (no flame, heat, or welding for sealing unless you have a death wish) and fill it by siphoning gas from your vehicle tank(s) or gas can(s) into it/them. Remember to clean and paint them so rust doesn't promote hazardous leaks. Putting them on a wagon/cart with wheels would help a bit in moving them but remember you need to have the tank lower than the tank in your vehicle to siphon out of the vehicle and into it, and higher than the tank to siphon out of it and into the vehicle. Then Stabil or other gasoline stabilizer at recommended concentration will keep the gas usable for a year or two. Of course, pre-catastrophe, you need to swap the gas out of the tank regularly and into a vehicle to burn it so you can get fresh fuel, so sizing your big tanks to your vehicle's fuel capacity is recommended ....

An alternative is to find a 50 gallon drum in excellent condition, fix/paint it, and fit it with a Harbor Freight hand crank pump to transfer the gas ultimately to the vehicle or other device for use, and then fill it yearly with gasoline hauled in in gas tanks or cans. The siphoning challenges discussed above applies, and keeping 50 gallons in one spot just complicates the problem of keeping it fresh...

For my lesser stash, I use 5 gallon cans sealed tightly so that I can simply fill them with fresh gas at the gas station after transferring their old contents to my car. You could get 8 cans for 40 gallons and maintain them, maybe one or two a month, to keep them fresh. Gas cans are costly to start out with (and new cans are very difficult to seal and maintain sealed) but the greater convenience of rotating the stock means it may actually get done! Of course, tags attached to cans detailing their rotation history are mandatory unless you have a phenomenal memory. Should you fail to maintain your stash of gasoline, it turns mostly to varnish in a few years and kills any engine or appliance you burn it in. If you are going to make a habit of rotating old gas frequently, however, you probably also want to use fuel injector cleaner in your vehicle and keep an eye on your vehicle's fuel filter.

The above commentary should alert you to most of the problems with keeping gasoline for long periods and then burning it in modern (not lawn mowers, etc) engines. Oh, yeah, you need to paint/otherwise prevent rust on any metal containers if you use them and, in any case, store the containers outdoors in more or less open air with protection against condensation and rainfall. Inside a normally tight building you are simply waiting for a bomb to go off one day.

I call my stash the "fuel depot", to keep me ever mindful of the WWII movies in which the fuel depot was attacked, and the hazards involved in keeping fuels, and the possible consequences thereof.

You have determined a need for 40 gallons of gasoline. Depending on how you plan to use it, you may want to reconsider...

Kerosene has a very long shelf life so you may want to figure out what you will use the energy for and find alternatives to gasoline wherever possible. Cooking, lighting and short term heating, are simplest (but sometimes costly) with propane, currently maybe less costly with white gas (Coleman Fuel) or fresh gasoline for cooking and light, and somewhat inconvenient but cheaper but very robust with kerosene for light, and maybe even for stoves though kerosene stoves are limited and expensive. Propane tanks, properly stored, can keep a fair amount of energy a long time without a lot of nuisance. It never goes bad until the tank rusts out... And, while engines can be converted to propane for generators, etc, the results are sub-optimum and costly. For engines the primary choice is gasoline. Diesel Fuel is good, but only for relatively costly diesel engines. Other uses allow more flexibility. I keep a stash of gasoline (for my car and worst case, emergency cooking), white gas for catastrophe light and cooking, and kerosene for catastrophe lighting. I also have propane, which is the first choice for catastrophe cooking and lighting and it ultimately gets rotated in peaceful days when I barbecue and run out of fuel. In a crisis, propane is the first choice for cooking, white gas the second, and kerosene, if equipped, the third.

For lighting, LED lights (pricey, sometimes limited in application, effectively infinite lifetime, and very low power but a challenge to apply well) , a 12 volt deep cycle storage battery or two, and a few hundred dollars worth of solar panels can make your future positively brilliant. Again, you need to consider your actual needs and find solutions to them ... FORGET the problem of preserving your current non-sustainable lifestyle through the decline of the fossil fuel era and its associated corrupt economic systems. You need to plan a new lifestyle consistent with the constraints you face.


Another serious lesson to be considered is that any significant disruption in energy supply is simply not convenient to mitigate by stockpiling. While a years' supply of food is not unreasonable (though it might be costly, inconvenient, and maybe not too tasty) a years' supply of energy in the form of fossil fuels is not trivial. If you don't believe me, just figure out your years' supply of gasoline, add in the fuel equivalent for heat, cooking, and electricity, and you may see futility in your preparation plans.

When you consider your plans you need to determine what will and will not be available during the possibly extended crisis period in question. If you live in a city, it is likely that electricity and natural gas will be available, though possibly rationed and intermittent. All possible efforts will likely be expended to first assure supplies of those two commodities in the cities, and if they are unavailable then you face a Mad Max situation soon.

On the other hand, if you take your bug-out-bag and head for the hills, you are on your own. Wood can make excellent heat with a considerable raw materials and labor component, complemented by a chainsaw, a log splitter, modest fuel for both, and a lot of elbow grease. However, you may also want to budget some NSAIDS like Naprosyn for tendon trouble - I just got the wood stacker's equivalent of Tennis Elbow from stacking firewood. ... Anything else (gas, propane, even kerosene) is likely to be scarce after a while and certainly dicey when TSHTF so your long term fossil fuel alternatives in the rural countryside are probably tenuous.

I certainly have answered more than your question, but I hope I have given you pause to think how you want to solve the problem of thriving in future situations. People tend to break down the problems we face into little bite sized pieces and consider them in isolation. Each one seems easy, so the sum has to be easy too. Analytic techniques that break the problem down into bite sized pieces work in controlled, relatively static situations. When other things happen, spot solutions do not necessarily help much and a more comprehensive solution must be sought. I hope I have started you to seek the the path to such a solution.

No matter how much the average American may wish that his indomitable individual spirit might overcome the problems he faces, only his serious efforts combined with the cooperation of his neighbors can begin to solve the problems he faces. He needs only consider the complexity of what he faces to see the folly of spot solutions.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

For lighting, LED lights (pricey, sometimes limited in application, effectively infinite lifetime, and very low power but a challenge to apply well) , a 12 volt deep cycle storage battery or two, and a few hundred dollars worth of solar panels can make your future positively brilliant

My alternative here is a propane powered generator, a couple of spare 20 pound propane tanks for my BBQ, and the battery powered UPS (uninterruptible power supply) that I have anyway, for my computers. I have two such UPS's (Smart-UPS 750's, with spare batteries), so could have one outside, recharging its battery off the generator, while I have the other inside, powering up a computer, a AAA battery recharger, a light or two, and my Cell phone (the phone and computer may or may not be useful any given day, depending on what infrastructure is up then.) I have radios and flashlights that run on AAA batteries. Alternatively, the propane powered generator is strong enough to run my refrigerator, so for short periods of time (too much hassle long term) I could re-cool the frig each day and extend the usefulness of what food was left inside it.

The above is a few week solution. The year long solution is a stash of rice and beans, a years worth of vitamin and nutrient pills and a Berkey Water Filter. There are two small lakes within a mile from which I can get filterable water. If both electricity and propane gas tanks cease to be available, then I guess I will have to collect firewood to cook the beans (I hope I don't have to think that alternative out more carefully.) The rice, beans and vitamins I rotate constantly through my normal consumption.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Meh........

We just went through a "fast crisis" with a rather considerable earthquake.

It was good practice for the family plan.

We got off the beach in mere minutes with enough to sustain ourselves for a week.

With no risk of tsunami we were back home in a couple hours after inspecting some business interests.

No water, no power, no problem......we had everything we needed and most of what we wanted to last the duration.

Working in partnership copatrolling with the Police on overnight shift for weeks on end it was quite disturbing to see how incredibly unprepared most folks were(and still are?) to handle a "fast crisis", and that's with a community of approximately 400k that actually worked exceptionally well together to sort things out.

Going through a considerable natural disaster(no fatalities, couple billion in damage) was a very enlightening experience.

Like many here....I don't envision a "fast crisis" that will play well for a TV movie of the week or special effects laden disaster miniseries.

I think of it as something akin to Japan.......a descending spiral, slow boil....but with a couple specifically noticeable and uncomfortable short-sharp bits in between.

I would agree with what has already been posted about Argentina and rural folks potentially at greater risk.....I've seen it here recently.....we literally had to cordon off a suburb of approx 500 homes with a quarter uninhabitable due to opportunistic looters....no one allowed in/out unless through road blocks...and that tempo of operations cannot be sustained indefinitely....we could only stay presence patrolling there for a few nights all night...and this is a relatively affluent homogenous western community...once we left some more houses got hit....law enforcement is 99 parts perception, 1 part tazer-ific reality.

As already stated, I see the police per capita dropping as governments are forced to cut costs, I see crime rising as poverty explodes, I see low level corruption rising(why are cops/inspectors/civil servants so honest in western nations according to metrics in recent decades?) as civil service wages fail to match rising inflation, and I see people having to harden up, face the new reality, and let go of the temporary and artificial affluence of the past.

You can fruitlessly fight it, or you can make the most of it.

The simpler my family's lifestyle is, combined with living as far beneath our ongoing and aggregate means as possible, looking after our health, and looking after our friends and neighbours where we can means we will see less inconvenience and discomfort than most everyone else.

Having a practical and pragmatic assessment of your home and family's security is worth consideration...and it's something people can actually DO instead of being stressed waiting for an event to occur sitting on the net.

The current and likely environment probably does not necessitate the same incredibly high level of precautions taken by my friends in South Africa I visited a year ago(and with good reason as their next door neighbour's family member was murdered in a home invasion the day before I arrived).....those that do, should seriously consider their geographical bad luck and consider their options.

But an alarm system, security lighting, a good dog, good neighbours, and other practical passive/active measures that don't have to cost a fortune can be implemented to make the naughty folks choose to burgle your neighbour down the street instead of you...because they are going to try and burgle someone.....better the lazy guy down the street than your family.

It's best to invest in solutions for likely and possible scenarios, and a bit less time on unlikely doomer porn......

But having said that...I can easily see the period that finished a few years back as the modern equivalent of the Roaring Twenties, and a reasonably paced return to the worst parts of the 70's/80's.

The good news is we WILL adapt and overcome......and those that do so sooner and better stand the best chance of success going through it and coming out the @ss end of it.

Just my 0.02c

[Raz]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

I don't see the Mad Max scenario. Rather we'll see more and more violent crime. Home invasions, clerks being shot for $50. That sort of thing. If it's not nailed down it will be stolen. People are going to find themselves broke and unprepared for LONG TERM unemployment. People will align themselves with anyone promising a way for them to make it through this. Could be gangs. Could be more radical political parties. Energy costs are going to rise and leave folks with a choice between running the AC or eating. Food is still relatively cheap and abundant in America. That is the least of my worries though it seems to be what Doomers worry about the most. Food will become more expensive and hard to get, but lets face it, food can be grown in most climates in the US. Still plenty of land available to grow food and livestock. We may see more food being sourced locally vs the regional way its done now, so it will become more expensive. Local entrepreneurs will fill this void and they'll have no problem finding labor. Debt and taxes will be what puts people in the street. Not starvation.

I look to Early 20th century Germany for some insight. A very structured, middle class society. A very orderly place where people generally were not violent, paid their bills, etc. But after WWI they had open warfare on the streets between political parties and the weak central government could do little to stop it. Civilization can break down very quickly despite all appearances of being "above" anarchy. Just trash people's life savings and take away their jobs and see what you end up with? Not that different from today.

I find violence along political/racial lines a lot more likely than the anarchy of Mad Max. You'll be forced to choose sides for survival. The fantasy of holding out in a rural compound will only work for the ones in the middle of nowhere. And even then for how long?

I'm with flintlock on this "peek into the future".

If we get Mad Max it will most likely be world-wide, due to the consequences of Peak [Cheap] Oil.

Here in the US we have corrupt Repukelicans, insane Demonrats, a government owned and operated for the benefit of (a) Congress, and (b) banksters (the Federal Reserve SYSTEM) and other FIRE interests. We're far more likely to get Wiemar or at least a First Cousin to that experience.

We can then hope we get nothing worse than a Huey Long.

[Kadriana]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Another serious lesson to be considered is that any significant disruption in energy supply is simply not convenient to mitigate by stockpiling. While a years' supply of food is not unreasonable (though it might be costly, inconvenient, and maybe not too tasty) a years' supply of energy in the form of fossil fuels is not trivial. If you don't believe me, just figure out your years' supply of gasoline, add in the fuel equivalent for heat, cooking, and electricity, and you may see futility in your preparation plans.

Now is a good time of year to stock up on charcoal and camping supplies. We have solar panels, a generator and a battery back-up system but the refrigerator uses a lot of electricity so being able to grill up all your meat is a good option. Also if you want to store extra food, look at your pantry and just quadruple it. If you eat a bunch of pasta, buy 12 boxes when on sale instead of 2. I eat oatmeal almost every morning for breakfast so I keep plenty of containers in my downstairs pantry. It also saves on gas and trips to the grocery store. I do a lot of baking so I keep plenty of flour, yeast, sugar etc. in the house. I have my Mad Max collection of rice, beans and wheat that will keep 10+ years in 5 gallon buckets but most of my storage is food I eat every week and food I can myself.

My homemade jelly beats anything you can find in the store and my spaghetti sauce has a lot more flavor than anything you can buy. I worry more about my husband loosing his job or a period of strong inflation so knowing that I could grow, raise and preserve 80% of our food is a big relief.