If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

[LargoWinch]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Look back to the 70s and extrapolate from there. Gas lines, high food prices, price controls. Possible energy rationing.

EJ/FRED addressed this somewhat I recall a long-time back. We don't need to worry about direct invasion, the US is able to feed itself and has enough infrastructure (or could build it rather quickly) to manage things. The big issues are IMO:

1 ) Currency collapse (combined with a bank holiday -- all ATMs shutdown). Do you have enough cash outside the system to survive for a limited time
2 ) Energy (how dependent are you on peak cheap oil -- if gas/energy prices tripled [or more] how would you fare)

Katrina was mentioned, and while yes eventually things came back, that was a horrific month. If you were similarly completely on your own for a month -- would you make it?

I have found the chrismartenson.com site the absolute best for transitional thinking (with lots of great articles and examples) on transitioning to what will be the new economy.

One has to not forget the essential - even with limited means.

[jpatter666]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

One has to not forget the essential - even with limited means.

Absolutely. My wine cellar (limited as it is) is stocked (although really for the barter days I should keep a rack of Black Label)!

[dbarberic]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

One has to not forget the essential - even with limited means.

Ha... that's basically commercialized prison wine.

[karim0028]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

That makes perfect logical sense. The bottom line is that we are not Greeks, I don't really see the American people taking to the streets, we are much too sophisticated for civil unrest. On second though, there is the issue of minority discontent and their violent tendencies as it was demonstrated in the Newark riots or more recently the L.A. riots.

It would be nice to find a safe and homogeneous geographic area to pass any economic distress.

Unfortunately my friend you have drank too much kool-aid about americans

[sunskyfan]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Hey, anybody got dibs on that bird? I'm hungry.

[BillBoard]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

What happens when the benefits go away?

What makes you think they would go away? Even China is not brave enough to tempt their own poor to riot.

[BillBoard]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Mad Max not dark enough, more like the Andes flight disaster.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uruguay...rce_Flight_571

[Kadriana]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

One has to not forget the essential - even with limited means.

If you're going to pick something, you have to go with vodka. It has 101 uses and lets be honest, the one food item gardeners never have a shortage of is tomatoes.

[flintlock]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

I don't see the Mad Max scenario. Rather we'll see more and more violent crime. Home invasions, clerks being shot for $50. That sort of thing. If it's not nailed down it will be stolen. People are going to find themselves broke and unprepared for LONG TERM unemployment. People will align themselves with anyone promising a way for them to make it through this. Could be gangs. Could be more radical political parties. Energy costs are going to rise and leave folks with a choice between running the AC or eating. Food is still relatively cheap and abundant in America. That is the least of my worries though it seems to be what Doomers worry about the most. Food will become more expensive and hard to get, but lets face it, food can be grown in most climates in the US. Still plenty of land available to grow food and livestock. We may see more food being sourced locally vs the regional way its done now, so it will become more expensive. Local entrepreneurs will fill this void and they'll have no problem finding labor. Debt and taxes will be what puts people in the street. Not starvation.

I look to Early 20th century Germany for some insight. A very structured, middle class society. A very orderly place where people generally were not violent, paid their bills, etc. But after WWI they had open warfare on the streets between political parties and the weak central government could do little to stop it. Civilization can break down very quickly despite all appearances of being "above" anarchy. Just trash people's life savings and take away their jobs and see what you end up with? Not that different from today.

I find violence along political/racial lines a lot more likely than the anarchy of Mad Max. You'll be forced to choose sides for survival. The fantasy of holding out in a rural compound will only work for the ones in the middle of nowhere. And even then for how long?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Unfortunately my friend you have drank too much kool-aid about americans

BillBoard is not alone, Karim. Most of my fellow Americans have drunk long and deeply, their entire lives. They will protest, insisting that they only drink strawberry Kool-Aid, unlike their foolish comrades who gulp that awful Grape Kool-Aid. But it's the same fluoridated artificially sweetened water, just different artificial flavoring and coloring.

Many individuals are disenchanted with some aspect or other of the "American Dream". A majority no longer trust the government in Washington DC. Recent Hispanic and Oriental immigrants still have a valuable perspective from their life elsewhere, but the backbone of America, from Europe and Africa generations ago, lacks this perspective. For them, the fabric of belief in American Exceptionalism, The Shining Light On The Hill, still holds as the prevailing norm (or anti-norm.) It is a fabric that has grown weak from many wearings and much abuse. Many individual fibers have ceased to bear any load, only appearing to the causal observer to still be integral to the fabric.

If this fabric is massively torn asunder, as I believe it will be in the next few years, the roar of the rip might be heard around the world. I fear many could die, at an even faster rate than the all too efficient U.S. Military-Industrial-Intelligence-Mercenary Complex (MIICM) is killing terrorists people now. Let us pray not.

At home, in America, the withdrawal agony, as the Kool-Aid (a highly addictive, mind rotting, drug) is removed, could be quite traumatic. Our very own MIICM is, from what I can tell, gearing up for this. In the view of the elite oligarchs, the spirit of American Exceptionalism needs to be broken, like that of a wild horse, so that Americans will bear the weight of the saddle being prepared for it. It's that, or guillotine time. I am not (yet anyway) long the guillotine manufacturers.

For a half century now, people have been weakened by a thin gruel of public schooling, debauched media, poor food and drugs legal or otherwise. Domestically I expect Americans to go out with more of a whimper than a bang. A few well publicized riots (suspected by conspiracy theorists such as myself to be false flag operations) could justify wide spread martial law crackdown, allowing the Department of Homeland Security (real title) and Minister of Domestic Propaganda (fictitious title) to get ahead of the curve and keep a lid on things. This approach could "work" in urban and suburban settings. The people in more rural areas of fly-over country are tougher. This will not go down well with them.

But it would appear that the American Empire has reached its "Sell By" date, and that the Internet is hastening the rate at which the rancid smell permeates the air.

I do not expect to see sustained Mad Max times with roving gangs of bandits taking over the land (outside of some areas bordering Mexico, where this is already a problem.) Rather I expect most Americans will adapt to the "new reality" of reduced expectations, after perhaps a few months of protesting.

Perhaps it is good that the fabric of American Exceptionalism has been weakened these many years. The roar of the rip might be more muffled, less deadly to so many innocents, foreign and domestic.

Still, it is going to take a shock or two, another "this changes everything" crisis, to affect the transition.

My basic preparations are simple, but considerable.

1. Food and supplies sufficient to get through six months of unreliable infrastructure.
2. Cash flow needs thereafter which are one half of current income.
3. Stay out of debt, or fully hedge debt with cash savings, the better to not have to deal with debt collectors and property repossessors.
4. Stay vigorously healthy, and avoid conventional medical care and pharmaceuticals.
5. Ready, willing and able to work in some different capacity, for much less pay, than in my past careers.
6. Keep my head down and eyes open, to anticipate and roll with the punches.

[karim0028]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

BillBoard is not alone, Karim. Most of my fellow Americans have drunk long and deeply, their entire lives. They will protest, insisting that they only drink strawberry Kool-Aid, unlike their foolish comrades who gulp that awful Grape Kool-Aid. But it's the same fluoridated artificially sweetened water, just different artificial flavoring and coloring.

Many individuals are disenchanted with some aspect or other of the "American Dream". A majority no longer trust the government in Washington DC. Recent Hispanic and Oriental immigrants still have a valuable perspective from their life elsewhere, but the backbone of America, from Europe and Africa generations ago, lacks this perspective. For them, the fabric of belief in American Exceptionalism, The Shining Light On The Hill, still holds as the prevailing norm (or anti-norm.) It is a fabric that has grown weak from many wearings and much abuse. Many individual fibers have ceased to bear any load, only appearing to the causal observer to still be integral to the fabric.

If this fabric is massively torn asunder, as I believe it will be in the next few years, the roar of the rip might be heard around the world. I fear many could die, at an even faster rate than the all too efficient U.S. Military-Industrial-Intelligence-Mercenary Complex (MIICM) is killing terrorists people now. Let us pray not.

At home, in America, the withdrawal agony, as the Kool-Aid (a highly addictive, mind rotting, drug) is removed, could be quite traumatic. Our very own MIICM is, from what I can tell, gearing up for this. In the view of the elite oligarchs, the spirit of American Exceptionalism needs to be broken, like that of a wild horse, so that Americans will bear the weight of the saddle being prepared for it. It's that, or guillotine time. I am not (yet anyway) long the guillotine manufacturers.

For a half century now, people have been weakened by a thin gruel of public schooling, debauched media, poor food and drugs legal or otherwise. Domestically I expect Americans to go out with more of a whimper than a bang. A few well publicized riots (suspected by conspiracy theorists such as myself to be false flag operations) could justify wide spread martial law crackdown, allowing the Department of Homeland Security (real title) and Minister of Domestic Propaganda (fictitious title) to get ahead of the curve and keep a lid on things. This approach could "work" in urban and suburban settings. The people in more rural areas of fly-over country are tougher. This will not go down well with them.

But it would appear that the American Empire has reached its "Sell By" date, and that the Internet is hastening the rate at which the rancid smell permeates the air.

I do not expect to see sustained Mad Max times with roving gangs of bandits taking over the land (outside of some areas bordering Mexico, where this is already a problem.) Rather I expect most Americans will adapt to the "new reality" of reduced expectations, after perhaps a few months of protesting.

Perhaps it is good that the fabric of American Exceptionalism has been weakened these many years. The roar of the rip might be more muffled, less deadly to so many innocents, foreign and domestic.

Still, it is going to take a shock or two, another "this changes everything" crisis, to affect the transition.

My basic preparations are simple, but considerable.

1. Food and supplies sufficient to get through six months of unreliable infrastructure.
2. Cash flow needs thereafter which are one half of current income.
3. Stay out of debt, or fully hedge debt with cash savings, the better to not have to deal with debt collectors and property repossessors.
4. Stay vigorously healthy, and avoid conventional medical care and pharmaceuticals.
5. Ready, willing and able to work in some different capacity, for much less pay, than in my past careers.
6. Keep my head down and eyes open, to anticipate and roll with the punches.

I just wanna be clear, im an american born and raised as well, so not saying that as an outsider ;)

[Starving Steve]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Friends, family, barter. You don't so much need money as what it buys. What would it take to be clothed, sheltered and fed? Do you have skills others could use in return for the basics? I think things will actually be interesting and possibly an improvement if we remember why civilizations form, and why we bother living in groups. Money is a means to an end. There are much more important things.

"Money is a means to an end. There are much more important things." (per the above from Jeff) Well, try to live on love. I went that route. I thought sex was more important than money. And then one day, out of the blue, divorce papers on the breakfast table, and after making-love. And I was the male!

Don't give me this pot-head or adolescent crap that you can live on love. FORGET IT. And forget faith too! At age 62, I don't trust anything, or anyone.

According to the BBC, one of the gangsters in Mexico is re-writing the Bible. ( I kid you not! ) And the gangs in Mexico do public-works projects and donate to charities. Google the story from the BBC World News because I don't have a link for you.

Here is the link:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8319924.stm

Or you may google: El Mas Loco, the most crazy one, Nazario Moreno Gonzalez, BBC, Thur 22 Oct 2009

[BillBoard]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

Nice write up, but after reading it I had the sensation to get up from my chair and bury my head in a nearby sand pit.

Really now, what are some practical things that can be done in this environment?

After reading your basic preparations, I didn't feel any comfort in the pit of my stomach. The reality is that we are all F*^& but just don't know it.

Now I get it, someone here said that this was going to be a massive tsunami and that no matter the size of your dingy, boat, yacht, ship, or cruise liner, you were screwed. I look around and can't help feeling how right he might be.

But let us be pragmatic. My neighbor sent his wife and young kid to Colombia where the lady is from, and is now selling his house even at a loss. I asked him why is he taking such dramatic actions and he replied that the USA is done, stick a fork in It. When pressed about what he meant, he said that there was no way he could start a new business in the USA and survive with all the regulations. When I asked him how would he fair in Colombia when he doesn't even speak Spanish he replied that he would have to learn it, but it was better for him to go through that hardship than know he was eventually be totally screwed in the USA.

I have lived next to this man for over 12 years, and after having that conversation I was shaken to say the least.

So no matter how much you may prepare you will be going through some really hard times. But I agree with Jeff, developing a network of people that may help you survive and prosper is not a bad idea, this may have to be the right time to begin making many new friends that have varied talent and skills. If you have any idea in how to develop such a type of network and you want to tells me, I am all ears.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

I just wanna be clear, im an american born and raised as well, so not saying that as an outsider ;)

So am I, Karim. Yes, your are correct in suspecting that I was not realizing this as I wrote. Your avatar had me semi-consciously responding as if to an Egyptian.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: If there is a collapse, civil unrest, or anything that stops commerce, how will you fare?

If you have any idea in how to develop such a type of network and you want to tells me, I am all ears.

Ah, I'm afraid you've found my weakness, BillBoard. With a few exceptions, I've done much better with reading, writing and arithmetic than I have with networking. I won't be of much help there.