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  • TARP was successful

    The posted article is a common argument these days. Apart from principled objections to government bailouts, are the facts correct? Did the government make money on TARP?

    Politicians love to criticize the $700 billion bailout to banks, insurance companies and the auto industry made by President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama. But there is something about the bailout program that most politicians will not share with you.

    The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP - otherwise known as the Big Government Bailout - was a tremendous success.



    First of all, only $387 billion of the $700 billion was actually spent. Second, most of that money has either been repaid or is scheduled to be repaid. Third, the funds are being repaid with interest.

    The deadline for asking for TARP money was Sept. 30. So we can now get a better idea of how the TARP funds were used, as well as the method and timeline for repayment. We now know, for example, that most of the borrowed money went to banks. What most people may not know, however, is that the banks have already repaid 75 percent of the money loaned to them with interest. For example, JP Morgan repaid its loan with $795 million in interest. Goldman Sacks paid $425 million in interest, and BB&T paid $93 billion in interest.

    About $70 billion of the money went to save the American International Group or AIG. Last week the government announced that it had negotiated a repayment plan that involves the public sale of AIG stock owned by the U.S. government. If the government's stock was sold based upon AIG's closing stock price on October 1, the government would earn a $22 billion profit. And as AIG's stock continues to increase in value, so does the profit.

    The rest of the TARP money was used to save the U.S. auto industry, as well as thousands of jobs from suppliers who depend upon the auto industry for their survival. Most, if not all, of this money is expected to be returned with interest. General Motors, for example, will soon be selling public stock again, perhaps as early as next month. As the government's stock in GM is sold, more TARP money returns to the U.S. Treasury.

    According to the latest estimate, in a worst-case scenario, the real cost of TARP will be between $30 and $50 billion, not the $700 billion you hear from politicians. In a more likely scenario, the U.S. government will make a profit from TARP investments that save us from a second depression.

    Not bad for a government program. But according to a recent poll by Bloomberg News, only 30 percent of Americans believe that TARP was necessary even though economists believe that without TARP, unemployment would have peaked at 16 percent instead of 10 percent.

    For some politicians who voted for the unpopular TARP, the good news about the program's success comes too late. Bob Bennett, for example, a Republican senator from Utah, lost his primary bid mostly because of his TARP vote. He recently said, "My career is over, but I do hope that we can get the word out that TARP, number one, did save the world from a financial meltdown and, number two, did so in a manner that, I believe, won't cost the taxpayer anything."

    Voting for TARP was unpopular because American voters blamed Wall Street for getting us into this mess in the first place and it didn't help them directly. What it did do what keep a bad situation from getting worse, but try telling that to someone who just lost their job.

    Like it or not, history will show that TARP got us out of a dire situation and was instrumental in putting us on the road to economic recovery.
    Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

  • #2
    Re: TARP was successful

    Let's see. Would you rather have unemployment at 16% for a short period of time then 5% and healthy economy or 10% in perpetuity with the other 90% not knowing what is going to happen next about government bailouts?

    The assessment of TARP being successful is like deciding that justice would be served if a judge deciding that both lawyers in a case are so incompetent that he steps in and argues their case for them and then deciding that the jury is so stupid that he makes the decision for them.

    Our economy is rotten withe moral hazard thanks to TARP. Successful?
    Last edited by sunskyfan; October 14, 2010, 10:26 PM.

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    • #3
      Re: TARP was successful

      Wait a minute- don't we still own all those toxic assets? Isn't there still the very real potential for a massive amount to be lost on those?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: TARP was successful

        Originally posted by pianodoctor View Post
        Wait a minute- don't we still own all those toxic assets? Isn't there still the very real potential for a massive amount to be lost on those?
        I don't know. That's why I posted this here. I'm hoping some of our more knowledgeable members will weigh in.
        Last edited by Master Shake; October 14, 2010, 01:29 PM.
        Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: TARP was successful

          I thought the gist of it was...

          1) Banks get bad assets off the books by using them as collateral for loans, govt pretends they're worth full amount and makes loans based on fictional valuation.
          2) Banks repay loans, with interest, and the assets revert to the bank.

          Do I have it wrong?

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          • #6
            Re: TARP was successful

            TARP was a sideshow. The real bailout was from the FED. They bought all of those worthless (less than face value at least) securities at 100% on the dollar. Fannie and Freddie have also done the same and are continuing to do so.

            Somebody else can pull up the numbers, but it certainly is a hell of a lot more than 300 billion in Tarp funds.

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            • #7
              Re: TARP was successful

              Originally posted by pianodoctor View Post
              Wait a minute- don't we still own all those toxic assets? Isn't there still the very real potential for a massive amount to be lost on those?
              Originally posted by Master Shake View Post
              I don't know. That's why I posted this here. I'm hoping some of our more knowledgeablefficeffice" /> members will weigh in.
              Originally posted by WDCRob View Post
              I thought the gist of it was...

              1) Banks get bad assets off the books by using them as collateral for loans, govt pretends they're worth full amount and makes loans based on fictional valuation.
              2) Banks repay loans, with interest, and the assets revert to the bank.

              Do I have it wrong?
              As I understand it, TARP was a taxpayer-funded program run by the Treasury. It is different from the various actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Originally, TARP was going to be about purchasing toxic assets. Fortunately, they wised up, and the plan changed. Instead, the Fed "printed" money to buy a lot of the bad assets, and the regulatory authorities relaxed mark-to-market rules such that other bad assets didn't have to be recognized as such immediately. Thus, TARP changed from a bad-asset-buying program into a bunch of loans to troubled companies (and not-so-troubled companies) secured largely by preferred stock. Instead of the Treasury, it is the Fed that has a bunch of questionable assets to deal with... but that doesn't cost the taxpayer anything, and it isn't as though the Fed is in trouble.

              The basic facts of the article are right. A lot of people remember how enraged they were by TARP when it was first conceived (Treasury uses tax money and borrowing to buy bad assets from banks), and didn't notice when the program changed to reduce taxpayer exposure (Treasury bails out a few selected company in turn for preferred shares at depressed prices). We are likely to take a net loss on AIG -- and I'm sure that unlimited backing of Freddie and Fannie is going to bite us in the ass -- but as far as TARP itself goes, we're coming out alright in net, all things considered.

              Was it a success? If the goal was to prevent "the system" from collapsing, then yes (so far). As others have pointed out, if the goal was to end up in a better place, then probably not. "The system" needed reform, and risk-takers needed to be punished, and that didn't happen. But that wasn't what TARP was for. TARP succeeded in accomplishing what it was designed to do. The thing to take issue with is whether that objective was worthy.

              (EDIT: WDCRob -- I should check into this to verify, but what you describe sounds a lot like some of the Fed's lending facilities. I'm not sure if that ended up happening with TARP in the end, or not. My impression was that several of the Fed programs involved securing loans with questionable assets, but that TARP was mostly $ for shares.)
              Last edited by ASH; October 14, 2010, 11:46 AM.

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              • #8
                Re: TARP was successful

                Much too early to tell. If you ask me, I think the system is still being held up by rubber bands and bubble gum.

                All those toxic assets (an oxymoron, for if they are toxic then they are not assets) will need to be liquidated at some point, and sun light will need to be shed on those books before we can begin the reconstruction in earnest.

                If you step back and look at the big picture, you can see that the macroeconomic landscape of the USA has been completely nationalized but not for the benefit of the public.

                If you ask me, TAPR has done its job, which it was to cover for a temporary period the monstrosity of a collapse that awaits us. Everything should be evident once the peons wake up and see that going to work is no longer feasible because they are no longer left with anything after going to work and paying their taxes, and going on the dole will be more profitable.

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                • #9
                  Re: TARP was successful

                  Originally posted by BillBoard View Post
                  Much too early to tell. If you ask me, I think the system is still being held up by rubber bands and bubble gum.

                  All those toxic assets (an oxymoron, for if they are toxic then they are not assets) will need to be liquidated at some point, and sun light will need to be shed on those books before we can begin the reconstruction in earnest.
                  I think the big issue is the pace at which the toxic assets are liquidated. Relaxing mark-to-market rules allowed the banks to keep these assets on their balance sheets at fictitious valuation. The loans will still go bad, but they won't all go bad at once. Since the Fed is pumping the banking system full of 'cheap' short-term money, the banks have an opportunity to 'earn' back their losses, as long as they are spread out over a sufficiently long time period.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: TARP was successful

                    Originally posted by ASH View Post
                    As I understand it, TARP was a taxpayer-funded program run by the Treasury. It is different from the various actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Originally, TARP was going to be about purchasing toxic assets. Fortunately, they wised up, and the plan changed. Instead, the Fed "printed" money to buy a lot of the bad assets, and the regulatory authorities relaxed mark-to-market rules such that other bad assets didn't have to be recognized as such immediately. Thus, TARP changed from a bad-asset-buying program into a bunch of loans to troubled companies (and not-so-troubled companies) secured largely by preferred stock. Instead of the Treasury, it is the Fed that has a bunch of questionable assets to deal with... but that doesn't cost the taxpayer anything, and it isn't as though the Fed is in trouble.

                    The basic facts of the article are right. A lot of people remember how enraged they were by TARP when it was first conceived (Treasury uses tax money and borrowing to buy bad assets from banks), and didn't notice when the program changed to reduce taxpayer exposure (Treasury bails out a few selected company in turn for preferred shares at depressed prices). We are likely to take a net loss on AIG -- and I'm sure that unlimited backing of Freddie and Fannie is going to bite us in the ass -- but as far as TARP itself goes, we're coming out alright in net, all things considered.

                    Was it a success? If the goal was to prevent "the system" from collapsing, then yes (so far). As others have pointed out, if the goal was to end up in a better place, then probably not. "The system" needed reform, and risk-takers needed to be punished, and that didn't happen. But that wasn't what TARP was for. TARP succeeded in accomplishing what it was designed to do. The thing to take issue with is whether that objective was worthy.

                    (EDIT: WDCRob -- I should check into this to verify, but what you describe sounds a lot like some of the Fed's lending facilities. I'm not sure if that ended up happening with TARP in the end, or not. My impression was that several of the Fed programs involved securing loans with questionable assets, but that TARP was mostly $ for shares.)
                    Didn't GM pay it's loan with another government loan? And then took credit for paying the loan?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: TARP was successful

                      I see that Ash, but for how long can that last without something dramatic happening? I mean, how soon will banks be solid enough to begin lending again, and what will be the credit standard that would let the average Joe qualify for a loan?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: TARP was successful

                        Originally posted by BillBoard View Post
                        I see that Ash, but for how long can that last without something dramatic happening? I mean, how soon will banks be solid enough to begin lending again, and what will be the credit standard that would let the average Joe qualify for a loan?
                        True... it may not be possible to maintain these conditions long enough. Very loose monetary policy happens to align with our current goals for the dollar's exchange rate, but that could get out of hand. Also, if this mortgage documentation debacle results in a ruling that forces banks to buy back mortgages, all bets are off. I agree with your point that things are still strapped together with bubble gum and rubber bands. If the banks can spread out their losses on bad loans long enough, they'll be okay. The recent drop in non-performing loans is maybe a sign that things are under control. Or maybe it will reverse as stimulus spending fades.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: TARP was successful

                          Originally posted by tsetsefly View Post
                          Didn't GM pay it's loan with another government loan? And then took credit for paying the loan?
                          You make a good point. I know the banks generally paid back their loans, but they were in a position to benefit from additional help from the Federal Reserve. As I recall, there was some BS accounting and/or overly optimistic projections involved when it comes to very sick companies like AIG and GM. AIG will pay back their TARP funds only if their stock goes really really high for no very good reason. And I think you're right about GM.

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                          • #14
                            Re: TARP was successful

                            Originally posted by ASH
                            The recent drop in non-performing loans is maybe a sign that things are under control. Or maybe it will reverse as stimulus spending fades.
                            Don't hold your breath on those figures, my sister defaulted on her debt a few months back and she told me that last week she got a letter from Amex telling her that her account was still in good standing but that she needed to make a payment before the end of the month.

                            I think with all the foreclosure moratoriums that the banks are putting in place, they are just delaying the inevitable and at the same time fudging their loan default figures. But that is just my opinion, I don't have any evidence of that.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: TARP was successful

                              Originally posted by ASH View Post
                              You make a good point. I know the banks generally paid back their loans, but they were in a position to benefit from additional help from the Federal Reserve. As I recall, there was some BS accounting and/or overly optimistic projections involved when it comes to very sick companies like AIG and GM. AIG will pay back their TARP funds only if their stock goes really really high for no very good reason. And I think you're right about GM.
                              Found it, not only did they not pay it back but they did also get another loan:

                              Uncle Sam gave GM $49.5 billion last summer in aid to finance its bankruptcy. (If it hadn't, the company, which couldn't raise this kind of money from private lenders, would have been forced into liquidation, its assets sold for scrap.) So when Whitacre publishes a column with the headline, "The GM Bailout: Paid Back in Full," most ordinary mortals unfamiliar with bailout minutia would assume that he is alluding to the entire $49.5 billion. That, however, is far from the case.

                              Because a loan of such a huge amount would have been politically controversial, the Obama administration handed GM only $6.7 billion as a pure loan. (It asked for only a 7 percent interest rate—a very sweet deal considering that GM bonds at that time were trading below junk level.) The vast bulk of the bailout money was transferred to GM through the purchase of 60.8 percent equity stake in the company—arguably an even worse deal for taxpayers than the loan, given that the equity position requires them to bear the risk of the investment without any guaranteed return. (The Canadian government likewise gave GM $1.4 billion as a pure loan, and another $8.1 billion for an 11.7 percent equity stake. The U.S. and Canadian government together own 72.5 percent of the company.)

                              But when Whitacre says GM has paid back the bailout money in full, he means not the entire $49.5 billion—the loan and the equity. In fact, he avoids all mention of that figure in his column. He means only the $6.7 billion loan amount.

                              But wait! Even that's not the full story given that GM, which has not yet broken even, much less turned a profit, can't pay even this puny amount from its own earnings.
                              So how is it paying it?

                              As it turns out, the Obama administration put $13.4 billion of the aid money as "working capital" in an escrow account when the company was in bankruptcy. The company is using this escrow money—government money—to pay back the government loan.
                              GM claims that the fact that it is even using the escrow money to pay back the loan instead of using it all to shore itself up shows that it is on the road to recovery. That actually would be a positive development—although hardly one worth hyping in ads and columns—if it were not for a further plot twist.


                              Sean McAlinden, chief economist at the Ann Arbor-based Center for Automotive Research, points out that the company has applied to the Department of Energy for $10 billion in low (5 percent) interest loan to retool its plants to meet the government's tougher new CAFÉ (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards. However, giving GM more taxpayer money on top of the existing bailout would have been a political disaster for the Obama administration and a PR debacle for the company. Paying back the small bailout loan makes the new—and bigger—DOE loan much more feasible.
                              In short, GM is using government money to pay back government money to get more government money. And at a 2 percent lower interest rate at that. This is a nifty scheme to refinance GM's government debt—not pay it back!
                              GM boasts that, because it is doing so well, it is paying the $6.7 billion five years ahead of schedule since it was not due until 2015. So will there be an accelerated payback of the rest of the $49.6 billion investment? No. That goal has been pushed back, as it turns out.
                              http://reason.com/archives/2010/04/2...ailout-payback

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