Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

[LargoWinch]

Hugh compares China to Starbucks in this Sept. 28, 2010 interview on KWN:

Interview here (audio only)

[touchring]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

He hasn't given any concrete reasons on why he thinks that the Chinese economic bubble will burst in the medium term other than quoting the economic adage that the impossible usually happens.

As I can see, there are only couple of scenarios in which this can happen and the chances of such scenarios are not high.

1. US and maybe the EU as well slap across the board tariffs on Chinese goods.
2. North Korea and South Korea goes into war.
3. Iran and Israel goes into war causing oil to spike to $200.
4. Great Tokyo or San Francisco earthquakes.

[BigBagel]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...o-return/8186/

The link is to a article in The Atlantic about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. My takeaway from the article is the attack will most certainly take place unless Iran curtails it's nuclear ambitions. The only variable is what Iran does and I don't think that's much of a variable.

[a warren]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

[QUOTE=touchring;175615]He hasn't given any concrete reasons on why he thinks that the Chinese economic bubble will burst in the medium term other than quoting the economic adage that the impossible usually happens.

He talked about the misallocation of capital to the extent that there would be negative ROI. He illustrated this with comments about empty buildings. He also pointed out that the GDP figures include the construction of the buildings. Its like including the growth of a cancerous tumour in body weight gain as if its a good thing.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

I'm going to start a competing site in a few years.... iJade.com !

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/21/wo...ia/21jade.html

"Jade From China’s West Surpasses Gold in Value"

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...o-return/8186/

The link is to a article in The Atlantic about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. My takeaway from the article is the attack will most certainly take place unless Iran curtails it's nuclear ambitions. The only variable is what Iran does and I don't think that's much of a variable.

I continue to suspect that The Atlantic speaks in-line with Israeli national interests.

In this article, discussions of when or if Israel might attack Iran are not disinterested forecasts. They are veiled threats, negotiation by other means.

Netanyahu is quoted in the article as saying: “You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs.” Needless to say, I agree. The question is who, if anyone is the messianic apocalyptic cult? Is it Iran, or is it Israel?

In this article, The Atlantic, which I claim speaks for Israel's national interests, is beating the drums of war. Why? Who wants what? On the plain face of the matter, it would seem that Israel wants to raise Middle East tensions, increasing the chances of a major war between the Anglo-American empire (the audience for this article) and the Islamic region from North Africa to Indonesia (the other audience for this article.) Since with a sufficient escalation of force, it must be the Islamic region that loses such a conflict and the Western military industrial complex that profits most from such a conflict, I presume, perhaps naively, that such is the objective.

If Israel simply wanted to blow up a couple of nuclear reactors, they would have done so already.

It seems here, and in other such war mongering for the last many years, that certain controlling interests of Israel are looking to provoke general war.

If enough ordinary Jews, Gentiles, Muslims and atheist cows see through the lies propagated by those certain controlling interests, perhaps it makes the prospect of general war a bit more distant. One can hope.

[Jay]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

If Israel simply wanted to blow up a couple of nuclear reactors, they would have done so already.

It may have already been done:

Stuxnet malware is 'weapon' out to destroy ... Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant?

By Mark Clayton Mark Clayton – Tue Sep 21, 3:08 pm ET
Cyber security experts say they have identified the world's first known cyber super weapon designed specifically to destroy a real-world target – a factory, a refinery, or just maybe a nuclear power plant.
The cyber worm, called Stuxnet, has been the object of intense study since its detection in June. As more has become known about it, alarm about its capabilities and purpose have grown. Some top cyber security experts now say Stuxnet's arrival heralds something blindingly new: a cyber weapon created to cross from the digital realm to the physical world – to destroy something.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20100921/ts_csm/327178

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

It may have already been done:

Stuxnet will likely do more damage to the freedoms of Internet users than to Iranian nuclear facilities. I see nothing to suggest that Stuxnet is capable of setting back a nuclear program for a substantial (such as a year) period of time.

Even if Stuxnet was intended to be, and succeeded as, a destroyer, not just a minor delayer, of the Iranian nuclear program, the fact that The Atlantic (and the King of Jordan on the John Stewart show, posted elsewhere on iTulip today) are raising the fears of a major Middle East war and beating the drums of war remains true.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

Stuxnet will likely do more damage to the freedoms of Internet users than to Iranian nuclear facilities. I see nothing to suggest that Stuxnet is capable of setting back a nuclear program for a substantial (such as a year) period of time.

Even if Stuxnet was intended to be, and succeeded as, a destroyer, not just a minor delayer, of the Iranian nuclear program, the fact that The Atlantic (and the King of Jordan on the John Stewart show, posted elsewhere on iTulip today) are raising the fears of a major Middle East war and beating the drums of war remains true.

Well TPC (our software expert )

That leaves only one option to the NATO dumbnuts: military.

[Jay]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

Stuxnet will likely do more damage to the freedoms of Internet users than to Iranian nuclear facilities. I see nothing to suggest that Stuxnet is capable of setting back a nuclear program for a substantial (such as a year) period of time.

Even if Stuxnet was intended to be, and succeeded as, a destroyer, not just a minor delayer, of the Iranian nuclear program, the fact that The Atlantic (and the King of Jordan on the John Stewart show, posted elsewhere on iTulip today) are raising the fears of a major Middle East war and beating the drums of war remains true.

I saw him more using the fear of war as a tool to try and get public opinion behind successful mideast talks.

[ASH]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

I continue to suspect that The Atlantic speaks in-line with Israeli national interests.

I read that article as articulating Israeli interests... not so sure it was specifically promoting them, except beyond the Israeli interest that the world -- and the US in particular -- understand clearly what those interests are. In particular, I think the article outlines the divergence between Israeli and American interest. The article pointed out that a temporary delay of Iran's nuclear program might be worth it to Israel, but not the US -- which is the view I hold.

Now... how do we combine horse-trading over Iran with horse-trading over a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute? Okay, Bibi -- we'll help you with a more comprehensive strike on Iran, but only if you offer enough concessions to Abbas to secure a permanent two-state solution... you can tell your people that you made some painful choices to protect Israel, but addressed the greater danger.

[oddlots]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

Let me know when it appears on the balance sheet of central bankers.

[touchring]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

He hasn't given any concrete reasons on why he thinks that the Chinese economic bubble will burst in the medium term other than quoting the economic adage that the impossible usually happens.

He talked about the misallocation of capital to the extent that there would be negative ROI. He illustrated this with comments about empty buildings. He also pointed out that the GDP figures include the construction of the buildings. Its like including the growth of a cancerous tumour in body weight gain as if its a good thing.

I'm quite sure that the housing bubble in China will collapse, but whether that will cause negative economic growth in China will take more than just economic factors.

China has a huge growing consumer economy, and the export industry is winning everyone both in terms of cost and production capability (China can manufacture practically anything), and the Chinese government is doing everything it can using financial support (funding acquisition of foreign brands), legislation (barring rare earth exports) and politics to increase that competitive advantage.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

I read that article as articulating Israeli interests... not so sure it was specifically promoting them,

That's a sensible distinction. In my youth, I was naive. In my middle age, I was sensible. Now I am mostly cynical regarding the larger institutions of our current "civilization", and hopeful regarding the human spirit.

The article promoted the view that Israel is beleaguered, that it risks a second Holocaust, and that Ahmadinejad is a nut job. As with most good promotions, the matters of real import are not presented as matters for consideration, but rather as givens, enveloping the entire presentation like water envelopes a fish. The reader is left pondering minor choices of little import, such as which color pen to use to sign the "sales" (debt) contract.

Now... how do we combine horse-trading over Iran with horse-trading over a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute?

Peace negotiations for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute have been "hopeful", "hoped for" or "promising" for my entire life. They are a distraction, a charade. Efforts do not fail for this long unless someone wants them to fail.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Hugh Hendry bearish on Japan, China.

I saw him more using the fear of war as a tool to try and get public opinion behind successful mideast talks.

Successful Mid-East talks will not happen in my lifetime. The oscillating tensions will persist until some far more dramatic sequence of events "changes everything." The risk remains that this dramatic sequence will be very violent.