WE are entering a number of "End Games"

[Mega]

Lets face the music, we are in deep trouble:-

War In Iraq:- We are going "Leave", call it what you may, it is what it is and as Wilston Churchill once said "Defeat has a certain odour". We are going to feel very bad about this and America look like it did After Vietham.

Iraq its self?..............Turkey/Iran/Saudi will fight it out, Turkey taking the top half, Iran beating the Hell out of Saudi. Saudi its self them becomes destabized by Ismanic types trooping across the border.

Yen Carry Trade:- Dies very soon, with it and the fall of Iraq the $ comes under Major pressure, high inflation sweeps America.

I could go on, but its so depressing i can't. Just hope we don't have a 2ND Civil war when all those out of work Mexican's are "Invited" to leave!

Mega

[Sapiens]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

Ok Mega, I will share with you a simple fact: Under state issued money, inflation transfer wealth from creditor to debtor.

Under private issued money, inflation transfers wealth from debtor to creditor.

That should help you figure out where we are heading.

[medved]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

Iraq its self?..............Turkey/Iran/Saudi will fight it out, Turkey taking the top half, Iran beating the Hell out of Saudi. Saudi its self them becomes destabized by Ismanic types trooping across the border.

Turkey taking the top quarter and agrees to an independent Kurdistan (supplied and advised by US through Israel). Kurds do US bidding in exchange for independence (including supporting sunnis against shiites).

Saudi Arabia is scared shitless. It is them, not Israel, that will be the first victim of Iran. They cannot let Iran take over. So, sunni population of Iraq gets support from US and Saudi Arabia and beats the crap out of shiites (that would not be the first time either).

Iran tries to support the shiites and gets actively involved into the Iraqi mess including direct military attacks. Sunnis and kurds ask US to intervene. US intervenes, beats crap out of Iran, but does not try to replay Iraqi fiasco. Instead, it lets Saudi Arabia organize local group of wealthy pro-US thugs ("freely elected") to control oil supply and become Iranian equivalent of Saudi clique.

m.

[Mega]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

Iran will be armed with Nukes, if not already........Saudi are Crap at everything they try to do, Iran are Pro's, they waste Pro-American forces.

Turkey WANTS Oil, and they can see lots of it!

The 3RD Carrier is NOT to frighten Iran , its to get Turkey to back off! No way Turkey will allow Kurds to become oil rich.
Mega

[Spartacus]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

Under private issued money, inflation transfers wealth from debtor to creditor.

Please expand on this, I didn't quite get it - some well known examples?
(please don't write "volubly short on facts ..." )

[Sapiens]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

Please expand on this, I didn't quite get it - some well known examples?
(please don't write "volubly short on facts ..." )

U.S. Great Depression.

for the opposite, Zimbabwe is currently going through economic collapse from state currency inflation.

[Spartacus]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

U.S. Great Depression.

for the opposite, Zimbabwe is currently going through economic collapse from state currency inflation.

the part I didn't get was, which was the private money that transferred wealth from debtors to creditors (I'm Canadian so I may not know stuff about the depression that you assume)

EDIT: are you counting bank loans as private money? And FED and/or US Government money as public?
So during the depression this "private money" caused people to lose their houses to banks?
It kind of makes sense except in the depression a lot of banks went under too.

[Guest]

Meanwhile, over in the EU markets - the "plumbing" belches and gurgles

This one's for you Mega. Some good cheer to brighten your day.

Reporting from London, Adrian Ash, from I-Tulip's partner in the UK, Bullion Vault.

THE DASH FOR CASH GOES GLOBALby Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com
July 10, 2007

"...How much intangible debt now needs to be squeezed into how much real money...?"
IS THIS WHAT a credit crunch feels like on the ground? Way behind the curve of my own domestic finances as ever, I've been trying to raise a fresh mortgage on my house – well, for around half of its outstanding value, at least.

In fact, I'm just one of 750,000 borrowers in the United Kingdom about to come out of a two-year fixed deal to find interest rates have risen from 4.50% to 5.75% since late 2005 – and all of the lenders I've approached just raised their rates.

Fair's fair; alongside the spike in 10-year US Treasury yields – the global price of money in lieu of a gold standard – the long-end of the UK's yield curve has finally caught up with the Bank of England. That makes borrowing money to lend it out again more expensive. It also represents a capital hit to the price of the bond underpinning the bulk of primary mortgage origination, too.

Five-year UK gilts closed last week yielding 5.75% – slap bang where the Old Ladies put the price of short-term money on Thursday. Ten-year gilt yields rose to 5.55%, up from 4.74% at the start of the year.

But three of the mortgage lenders now offering to keep a roof over my head also just raised the "spread" that their tracker mortgages charge above base lending rates. Two have also hiked their mortgage arrangement fees, too.

Here in London and the booming south-east of England, house prices have not even turned down yet, but the lenders are already racing to claw in money. And on the other side of the credit ledger, the same story.

Get cash at any price. It's just not as cheap anymore – and it might be about to become yet more expensive. A friend with less money than gold was last week offered a 90-day deposit paying 8% per annum. US private-equity giant KKR now says it wants to float on the stock market after failing to raise leveraged finance in the bond market. The perceived risk of holding European corporate debt is shooting higher, according to the cost of buying credit default swaps.

The cost of insuring against a default by Rolls Royce, for instance, rose 16% this morning alone according to Deutsche Bank, after reports that private equity funds are circling, ready to buy up the engineering giant with money borrowed against Rolls Royce's own future.

Credit default swaps for Air Liquide, the world's second-largest maker of industrial gases, jumped 38% today after a report that KKR is considering a bid. Alliance Boots Plc just said it will assume £1 billion of the debt needed to fund KKR's buy-out of the UK pharmacy chain. That pushed the price of CDS on Boots' debt more than 9% higher this morning.

The sausage machine still needs meat, bread and sawdust, however, and eight further bond issues worth around €500 million each are scheduled for later this week, reports Bloomberg. For as long as the mincer keeps running, you might wonder what's the fuss? Money shufflers chasing a few pennies on the Pound will hardly make a difference to the cost of your daily loaf – already breaching the £1 mark (equivalent to a fresh quarter-century high of $2.0245 at the time of writing), with the price of wheat set to extend its 53% gains of the last year thanks to the Australian drought, growing demand from China and India, plus the scramble for biofuel production in the US.

But financial institutions accounted for 78% of the world's outstanding debt issuance in March, says the Bank for International Settlement. Debt sold by financial companies to other investment groups outweighed international stock market issuance nearly eleven times over. To young families buying a home, this dash for cash simply adds a few quid – or more than a few quid – to the monthly bills. In the debt markets, however, it's already unwinding the blue skies, plain sailing forecasts of the last two decades.

Almost 60% of credit professionals surveyed by In-House Lawyer magazine think the bubble in Europe's leveraged finance market is now "unsustainable". Four in five of those gloomy professionals reckon the bust will strike inside 12 months. "European investors have had their fill," said Luis Sanchez-Guerra, head of capital markets at Ahorro Corporacion Financiera in Madrid, to Bloomberg yesterday.

But fear not! If you can't get your bond issue away to cheese-eating continentals, simply go west. "The Dollar market opens an avenue to new investors," says Sanchez-Guerra. His firm, owned by 43 savings banks, plans to sell $2 billion of notes backed by Spanish home loans into the US debt market. He might just find willing buyers, too.

"This [mortgage bond] market today is like corporate credit was in 2001 and 2002, especially like 2002, when you had a tremendous risk/return opportunity," says Barak Laks of Alpha Beta Capital Partners. "The real money in bonds is made when they are trading on price, not spreads. The only problem is the path."

In short, as John Dizard notes in the Financial Times, "we are in a liquidation phase for subprime housing debt...Not 'the' liquidation phase, because there will be several."
The liquidation of 2007's historic and global top in debt might also take a while to work itself out. "The complexity of this era of credit liquidation," as Robert Smitley wrote of the Great Depression in '30s America, "is far too great for the mob mind to grasp.

It is hardly possible for them to see the picture wherein about $700 billion dollars of physical and intangible wealth is attempting to be turned into about $5 billion dollars of money."

How much intangible debt now needs to be squeezed back into how much real money? It would be easier to find a cheap mortgage – with no ugly ARM once the teaser is finished – than guess at those numbers today.

© 2007 Adrian Ash
Editorial Archive

CONTACT INFORMATION
Adrian Ash
London, UK
Email l BullionVault.com

[renewable]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

the part I didn't get was, which was the private money that transferred wealth from debtors to creditors (I'm Canadian so I may not know stuff about the depression that you assume)

I'm a bit lost on what you mean, Sapiens - may I echo Spartacus' request, and ask you to expand on your point a bit further please?

[Sapiens]

Re: WE are entering a number of "End Games"

I'm a bit lost on what you mean, Sapiens - may I echo Spartacus' request, and ask you to expand on your point a bit further please?

I am quite tied up, but you can do well in reading this book:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...43&postcount=2