New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

[metalman]

New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Twin Focus Capital Partners is turning a vision of fundamental economic upheaval into an investment vehicle. The multifamily office’s Postcatastrophe Economy Portfolio is meant to capitalize on a traumatic shift from dependence on debt and foreign oil to a new system based on the development of transportation, energy and communications infrastructure.

The managed account is “a way to make a portfolio forward-looking,” said Twin Focus managing partner Paul Karger. Equally, he added, it provides a means for play-it-safe investors to add risk to predominantly conservative investment programs.

The Postcatastrophe portfolio reflects the macroeconomic views of Eric Janszen, a serial entrepreneur and economic adviser to Twin Focus since its inception in 2006.

http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/2010/09/09/new-portfolio-shaped-by-vision-of-upheaval/

[seanm123]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

The Postcatastrophe portfolio has an investment minimum of $250,000. Is this a Hege Fund? If it is Investors are going to have at least US $5,000,000 in investment assets to be able to invest.

[Jeff]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

I've had the bulk of the money I don't play with myself with Twin Focus, and they have been really great. The minimums are steep, but the law makes it hard for the wee folk, what with "accredited investor" requirements and all. It seems like the gummint should just require people to pass a financial and economic IQ test to invest in small companies, risky schemes (in the British sense of the word) and funds where you can win big, but the ride can be exciting and the wisdom is anything but conventional. If you can afford it, Paul and Wes Karger are really the guys to see (at Twin Focus).

I would defend the high minimums also this way; in my earlier life, at the literal beginning (and before that) of the commercial Internet Service Provider industry, there were only two kinds of companies. The ones that sold dial up access and got minimal revenue for lots of needy little users went broke. Anyone even remember PSInet, the once king of that business? They went bankrupt over their tech support costs.

The other kind of ISP sold high speed connections to smart people at companies that knew enough to fix their own stuff. That was mostly my idea, at least at UUNET, and it has allowed me to spend the last 15 years in relative leisure.

Don't moan about the high minimums if you've ever chewed some support guy's ear off over a $20 discrepancy on your bill. That kind of customer does not a successful business make. I used to actually fire needy customers, but that's another story.

[big67]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

"returning to equities" ?

[Chris]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

The Postcatastrophe portfolio has an investment minimum of $250,000. Is this a Hege Fund? If it is Investors are going to have at least US $5,000,000 in investment assets to be able to invest.

The article states they usually have around $75,000,000 to invest, on average. So are we in? LOL!

[swgprop]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Boston-based Twin Focus manages about $800 million, mainly for entrepreneurs with, on average, $75 million to invest.

Ummm, so that gives them a client base of about 10 investors??

[ASH]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Ummm, so that gives them a client base of about 10 investors??

Sounds like what Jeff was talking about!

[EJ]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Ummm, so that gives them a client base of about 10 investors??

This is not exactly how we planned to announce this, but as they say about "the best laid plans."

Twin Focus Capital Partners is managing a portfolio that tracks the investment thesis implied by the thepostcatastropheeconomy.

I'll continue to advise TFCP on macro-economic developments in general and as they apply to the TPCE Portfolio.

The TPCE Portfolio grew out of discussions among iTulip Select subscribers about how to diversify out of Treasury bonds as we transition from one major era to another. The bubble era started in 1998 when iTulip was launched and ended in 2008. A new era shaped by new dominant macro-economic drivers, most significantly Peak Cheap Oil and the crisis phase of the FIRE Economy, presents new challenges for us. The reason for creating this portfolio is that we iTulipers cannot hide out in gold and Treasury bonds for the next ten years as we have for the last. This new era is not about the asset price inflation, deflation, and reflation cycles that were horrid for stocks but great for gold and Treasury bonds. Unfortunately, a managed portfolio approach will be needed. I say unfortunately because the cost of sitting in gold and Treasury bonds in a Treasury Direct account from a transaction costs basis was virtually zero. A professionally maanged portfolio that tracks a complex thesis cannot be free. Also, while it took effort to review the gold and Treasury positions and determine not to sell them, from a time and attantion perspective the gold abd bond portfolio was ultra low maintenance. Now that's all changing.

One of the more novel aspects of TPCE Portfolio, besides the fact that it tracks the thesis of a book written by an economic analyst with a decent track record, is that we intend to make the positions transparent to iTulip Select Subscribers so that those who are so inclined to trade them on their own brokerage account can do so. We have selected instruments that any retail investor can trade for this reason. There's no guarantee that this will remain the case in perpetuity. It is likely that we will over the years invest in instruments that only an institutional investor can buy. The community will no doubt have ideas about how these positions can be approximated. In fact, the community will have a say in how the portfolio changes over time, as my views are influenced by the opinions of our broad range of members who are industry experts. The power of the collective mind of the iTulip community will come to bear. All in all, I think it's a very exciting development for us.

One comment on timing: We are awaiting a few final approvals. In the meantime, fee free to contact the folks at TFCP.

[jpatter666]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

This is not exactly how we planned to announce this, but as they say about "the best laid plans."

Twin Focus Capital Partners is managing a portfolio that tracks the investment thesis implied by the thepostcatastropheeconomy.

I'll continue to advise TFCP on macro-economic developments in general and as they apply to the TPCE Portfolio.

The TPCE Portfolio grew out of discussions among iTulip Select subscribers about how to diversify out of Treasury bonds as we transition from one major era to another. The bubble era started in 1998 when iTulip was launched and ended in 2008. A new era shaped by new dominant macro-economic drivers, most significantly Peak Cheap Oil and the crisis phase of the FIRE Economy, presents new challenges for us. The reason for creating this portfolio is that we iTulipers cannot hide out in gold and Treasury bonds for the next ten years as we have for the last. This new era is not about the asset price inflation, deflation, and reflation cycles that were horrid for stocks but great for gold and Treasury bonds. Unfortunately, a managed portfolio approach will be needed. I say unfortunately because the cost of sitting in gold and Treasury bonds in a Treasury Direct account from a transaction costs basis was virtually zero. A professionally maanged portfolio that tracks a complex thesis cannot be free. Also, while it took effort to review the gold and Treasury positions and determine not to sell them, from a time and attantion perspective the gold abd bond portfolio was ultra low maintenance. Now that's all changing.

One of the more novel aspects of TPCE Portfolio, besides the fact that it tracks the thesis of a book written by an economic analyst with a decent track record, is that we intend to make the positions transparent to iTulip Select Subscribers so that those who are so inclined to trade them on their own brokerage account can do so. We have selected instruments that any retail investor can trade for this reason. There's no guarantee that this will remain the case in perpetuity. It is likely that we will over the years invest in instruments that only an institutional investor can buy. The community will no doubt have ideas about how these positions can be approximated. In fact, the community will have a say in how the portfolio changes over time, as my views are influenced by the opinions of our broad range of members who are industry experts. The power of the collective mind of the iTulip community will come to bear. All in all, I think it's a very exciting development for us.

One comment on timing: We are awaiting a few final approvals. In the meantime, fee free to contact the folks at TFCP.

Well, if it's a $5M accredited investor requirement, that knocks out all but a handful of us. Guess we'll be following the choices.

What I find interesting about all this is EJ's implied comment that gold is *no longer* the place to get maximum returns. Interesting given all those commentators with gold to 5K, 10K or more.

[EJ]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Well, if it's a $5M accredited investor requirement, that knocks out all but a handful of us. Guess we'll be following the choices.

What I find interesting about all this is EJ's implied comment that gold is *no longer* the place to get maximum returns. Interesting given all those commentators with gold to 5K, 10K or more.

Clarification: We're staying in gold but we are communicating possible ways to diversify out of Treasury bonds.

[jpatter666]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Clarification: We're staying in gold but we are communicating possible ways to diversify out of Treasury bonds.

Ah! Well glad we got that cleared up fast then.

Thanks!

[zoog]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

Well, if it's a $5M accredited investor requirement, that knocks out all but a handful of us. Guess we'll be following the choices...

...we intend to make the positions transparent to iTulip Select Subscribers so that those who are so inclined to trade them on their own brokerage account can do so. We have selected instruments that any retail investor can trade for this reason. There's no guarantee that this will remain the case in perpetuity...

I am glad to hear that us "wee folk", as Jeff put it, will have access to at least some of the choices. In some of the earlier hints and snippets over the months about upcoming changes to what iTulip was looking at for investments, I really got the impression that all of us who are less than spectacularly wealthy were going to be left out in the rain.

[strittmatter]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

I'm interested as to the extent of your portfolio emphasis, if any, on water infrastructure and development going forward. For a while I've had the intent to share various private study / industry resource data that I'm aquainted with however my efforts to do so seem to encounter one thwart after another.

This earlier GS report has lots of good data:
http://www.excelwater.com/2008-goldm...ter-primer.pdf

[EJ]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

I am glad to hear that us "wee folk", as Jeff put it, will have access to at least some of the choices. In some of the earlier hints and snippets over the months about upcoming changes to what iTulip was looking at for investments, I really got the impression that all of us who are less than spectacularly wealthy were going to be left out in the rain.

It was quite a project to avoid leaving my good friends here at iTulip behind. That's the main reason my writing has slowed to a crawl. As far as I know, no one else offers anything similar. It's my good fortune to have a relationship with the Karger Bros. at TFCP. They are sympathetic to our mission to bring everyone along. Here we have a world class team of portfolio managers turning an ever-evolving macro thesis into trades that are observable by our subscribers. I was unable to find anyone else who was willing to do this. Among other things the compliance issues were non-trivial. Needless to say, the trades that subscribers will see are not recommendations. The usual disclaimer applies: Nothing on this website is intended or should be construed as investment advice. It is intended to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only. By using this board you agree that you understand the risks of trading, and are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions.

[we_are_toast]

Re: New Portfolio Shaped By Vision of Upheaval

we intend to make the positions transparent to iTulip Select Subscribers so that those who are so inclined to trade them on their own brokerage account can do so. We have selected instruments that any retail investor can trade for this reason. There's no guarantee that this will remain the case in perpetuity.

I'm not at all sure why you would chose to do this. In fact, at this point I was leaning toward believing iTulip might be shut down.

I view this as a very generous gift and can only say, thanks!