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  • 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90...2/7106629.html

    Netizens hone in on housing vacancy rate
    08:49, August 17, 2010

    The absence of authoritative figures on the nation's housing vacancy rate, reported as high as 50 percent in major cities by domestic media, has led some netizens to carry out a field investigation themselves.

    Initiated by news portal Sina.com, a nationwide investigation was conducted on the housing market in more than 100 cities, with many netizens volunteering to collect firsthand information by counting the vacant rooms in commercial buildings.

    "With help from our users, we have gathered information on more than 1,000 real estate projects across the nation so far," said Liao Lanxin, an editor in charge of the online survey from the Shanghai office of Sina.com.

    "Counting black rooms at night is a direct way to find out whether an apartment is occupied or not," Liao said. Of the 100 Shanghai property projects the website researched, volunteers found that 51.23 percent of the flats were empty. The no-lighting rate in the Beijing properties polled is 65.6 percent. Hainan was the highest with more than 70 percent black, she added.

    On Aug 4, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that as of June 30, the unsold housing area across the nation totaled 191.82 million square meters, up 6.4 percent over a year earlier. However, NBS didn't release any data on the much-talked about housing vacancy rate, adding that accurate figures depend on the future population and housing census.

    "There are no official and reliable figures to reflect the vacancy rate in the current housing market, but for those who care about the healthy operation of the market, we feel responsible to do the research," Liao said.

    Using the most direct and grassroots methodology by counting the rooms with lights on, netizens get a look at the current housing market, she added.

    Of more than 10,000 online users polled, 91.1 percent said the number of unoccupied properties is outrageously high in their cities. Some 88.8 percent polled said that property prices are directly pushed up by speculators who buy a number of houses and leave them vacant.

    "Investors-owners leave their properties vacant just because they can relish the gains from the soaring housing prices even if they don't lease them out," said an employee named Ma Li, who works at a trading company in Shanghai.

    "My landlord has four other apartments after leasing one of them to me, and he has made himself a multi-millionaire by buying houses with mortgage loans over the past decade," Ma said.

    Lu Qilin, director of the Shanghai-based Uwin Real Estate Research Center, told China Daily that he understands why netizens want to know the truth about China's housing market after official bodies failed to offer such data. But Lu doubted the accuracy of counting lights to obtain the vacancy rate.

    "Surely some of the high-end apartments are not used, but this methodology is arguable in terms of effectiveness," he said. According to him, all the apartments in Tomson Riviera, once known as "China's most expensive apartments", have their rooms' lights on at night, even if they are vacant, so the no-lights method is not reliable.

    "On the other side, there must be housing owners who have good light-proof curtains and those who go on a business trip. All these should be factored in, or its accuracy is dubious," Lu added.

    Chen Sheng, director of the China Index Academy in Shanghai, said the netizen activity shows the public, especially those who cannot afford the soaring housing prices, wants to bring the distorted housing situation to public light.

    "Housing spending plays an increasingly greater role in Chinese consumers' life. As we know, more than 60 percent of a family's daily expenses goes to buying or leasing an apartment. In this case, social fairness and government subsidies for the poor is of great importance and urgency," said Chen.

    To curb the housing prices from soaring higher, the central government imposed its harshest property policy in recent memory in April. But the housing market has only seen a shrinking trade volume, while the property price nationwide continued to rise over the past three months. Housing prices in China's 70 major cities rose 10.3 percent in July year-on-year, according to the latest figures released by NBS on Tuesday.

    Source: China Daily/Agencies

  • #2
    Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

    "Counting black rooms at night is a direct way to find out whether an apartment is occupied or not," Liao said. Of the 100 Shanghai property projects the website researched, volunteers found that 51.23 percent of the flats were empty. The no-lighting rate in the Beijing properties polled is 65.6 percent. Hainan was the highest with more than 70 percent black, she added.
    Ouch.

    This cannot end well. I wonder for whom it will end badly.
    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

      The method is questionable: 1.) People may turn their lights off if they are asleep; 2.) People may work at night elsewhere and leave their apartments dark; 3.) People may have a 1.7watt per hour light on in their apartment, but you can't see it outside; 4.) People may be out to dinner and leave their apartment dark; 5.) People might have thermal drapes and leave them closed to save energy (light).

      If people choose to buy homes (including apartments) and leave them vacant, they might be making a rational decision in view of the damage inflation can do to money in a savings account in the bank. People are not stupid to-day, but central bankers are out-of-touch with reality.

      Empty homes are not necessarily a bad sign in a real estate market. In fact, vacant homes may be a sign of a rising market and a lack of confidence by people in paper money.
      Last edited by Starving Steve; August 26, 2010, 04:57 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

        Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
        Empty homes are not necessarily a bad sign in a real estate market. In fact, vacant homes may be a sign of a rising market and a lack of confidence by people in paper money.
        Can people be so dumb as to flee "paper money" with the purchase of a fixed, taxed and leveraged asset under these conditions?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

          Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
          Can people be so dumb as to flee "paper money" with the purchase of a fixed, taxed and leveraged asset under these conditions?

          I'm not surprised, inflation is so atrocious people rather buy apartments then leave money in the bank. The inflation that everyone in itulip has talked about has already happened, although not in the USA.

          http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...cal-costs.html
          Foot Massage Doubles and Chinese Doubt Official Price Data
          By Bloomberg News - Aug 26, 2010 12:00 AM GMT+0800

          Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Ben McLannahan of the Financial Times' Lex commentary team discusses China's "grey economy." McLannahan speaks with Melissa Long on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)
          China's Consumer Price Inflation Topped Out

          Prices of fruit and fish are up in China. Officially, China’s consumer price inflation topped out at 3.3 percent in July compared to a year before, a 21-month high. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

          Lydia Wang, a 28-year-old marketing manager in Shanghai, gripes that the shoes and clothing she normally buys are at least 50 percent pricier than in 2009. Wu Sengyun, a 54-year-old retiree in the coastal city of Ningbo, Zhejiang, says prices of fruit and fish are up more than 20 percent in the past year.

          Willy Lin has cut back on free drumsticks in the canteen of his Jiangxi clothing factory as meat and vegetables grow dear. “The workers suffer,” he says. “Everybody is crying.”

          Officially, China’s consumer price inflation topped out at 3.3 percent in July compared to a year before, a 21-month high. Officials say the spike is a one-off caused by crop damage from recent flooding. Other costs, they say, such as cars, mobile phone bills, and clothing, are falling, and pressure on prices should ease as the economy cools. At an Aug. 12 press conference, Pan Jiancheng, a deputy director in the statistics bureau, said the inflationary threat was “overhyped.”

          Consumers, investors, analysts and academics interviewed by Bloomberg BusinessWeek in its Aug. 30 issue beg to differ.

          “There has been a jump in prices that isn’t reflected in the numbers,” said Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank.

          Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, said he wonders how a country that grew 10.3 percent last quarter and is seeing upward pressure on wages could register a price rise of a few percentage points. Multinationals in China expect to raise wages an average of 8.4 percent this year, according to Hewitt Associates Inc., a human resources consultant.

          Ordinary Chinese

          Ordinary Chinese have yet to see increases in their housing, education, and medical expenses reflected in the official numbers, these analysts said.

          “Inflation could well be 6 percent now for most people in China,” Peking University’s Pettis said.

          If the doubters are right, then the government has an inflation problem that it either hasn’t figured out how to measure, or has chosen to ignore. Other vital Chinese statistics, like retail sales and unemployment, have also been murky. In the case of inflation, misjudging could prevent the kind of swift action needed to tame prices now, and force the government to apply harsher measures later, such as an increase in interest rates or an appreciation of the currency to curb growth. There are political risks too: Social unrest in China has been triggered when ordinary workers can’t keep up with the cost of living.

          Data ‘Oddity’

          Unlike most countries, China refuses to release in detail how much weighting it gives different product categories when calculating inflation, a situation that World Bank senior economist Louis Kuijs called an “oddity.” An official with the statistics bureau said there has been no major change in the basket that makes up the price index since 2005. Plans call to adjust the weighting next year to reflect housing costs more and food prices less, said the official, who declined to be identified because of agency rules.

          Chinese consumers, when asked, will detail how household expenses have changed in the past decade. Medical costs are the No. 1 concern for 84 percent of China’s rural residents, according to a recent survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Officially, medical prices are only up 2.8 percent so far this year. That number does not include the cost of gifts to hospital doctors and administrators to ensure adequate care.

          Housing and rising rental costs also eat up more of Chinese budgets. For 26-year-old Beijing resident Wang Yulu, the monthly rent of her 35-square-meter one-bedroom apartment just increased more than 20 percent, to $338.

          Too Expensive

          “It’s too expensive,” said Wang, who works in the Beijing office of a Hong Kong advertising company. “I’m thinking of moving.”

          Getting a handle on rising prices is a particular challenge in China. Hundreds of millions of rural Chinese keep moving to cities, pushing up rents and food prices in urban coastal areas. The prices charged by millions of restaurants, coffee shops, and fitness centers go largely unrecorded as entrepreneurs evade taxes. A standard foot massage, popular in Chinese cities, has risen from around $10 in 2008 to about twice that today, said Zoe Wang, a 29-year-old strategy consultant from Shanghai.

          “Unfortunately, my salary didn’t double,” she said. Official figures only record a 0.4 percent rise in recreation and education costs this year. China doesn’t separate these two categories in its figures.

          Residents in far-western China face higher prices in part because of the long distances products must travel to reach them. A fast-growing population of pensioners feels price increases much more acutely than others.

          Pensions Spent

          Said retiree Wei Mingxiang, 54, as she shopped carefully in Beijing’s Rundeli vegetable market: “Prices have gone up too far. My entire monthly pension of $147 is spent on food.” One staple, cowpeas, recently doubled in price in two weeks to 40 cents a pound.

          By periodically releasing wheat, rice, and corn from its reserves, the government has avoided the 100 percent price surge that hit global grain markets in 2007 and 2008. Beijing continues to cap prices on everything from phone bills to water, electricity, and fuel prices, and when it wants to cool growth the government orders banks to stop lending.

          “The government has tended to use less mainstream instruments that economists don’t like so much,” said Kuijs of the World Bank. “And they tend to use interest rates less.”

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

            Originally posted by touchring View Post
            I'm not surprised, inflation is so atrocious people rather buy apartments then leave money in the bank. The inflation that everyone in itulip has talked about has already happened, although not in the USA.
            touchring, my point is that housing is a kiss of death during an [hyper]high-inflationary event, thus people are acting silly again:



            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

              Yes, but China is not experiencing hyper-inflation.

              Inflation is demand driven, a result of capacity not catching up with the demand. Too many people from the country side moving into the city to take up jobs, pushing up rent. When rent rises, everything goes up in cost, food, wages.

              The economy is creating too many jobs, hence the inflation.

              As for the empty luxury blocks, these are "investment property", therefore do not add to the rental supply for ordinary folks.


              Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
              touchring, my point is that housing is a kiss of death during an [hyper]high-inflationary event, thus people are acting silly again:



              Last edited by touchring; August 26, 2010, 09:44 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                People don't leverage themselves up that much in China to buy RE. In fact, I believe you have to buy Cash if it's a secondary home.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                  My guess is that people screamed loudly about rent inflation during the years of WWI (1914-1918), so probably the government put rent-control on. That is why the inflation in rents slowed in Germany after WWI.

                  My kids in Victoria refuse to live with me in East Sooke (where the bears walk around on two-legs), so they are "big-shots" and live in Victoria under rent-control. Their new landlord is "having kittens" about rent-control, and he wants to raise their rents to make-up for lost time.

                  These little things like rent-controls are what economists might over-look, especially in their data tables on prices.

                  During to-night's supper down in California, I noticed that my bottle of BBQ sauce had more fructose corn-syrup now in it than ever before. The ingredient change hid the hyper-inflation; hence, all kinds of tricks with fillers and substitute ingredients are used in the marketing strategy to hide inflation and keep retail prices steady. So, to economists reviewing price data in the US, everything looks just wonderful, at least with BBQ sauce.

                  Are we ready for another round of ethanol (low-octane filler) in gasoline yet? Higher oil prices will make ethanol seem attractive to fools, especially in government during a round of hyper-inflation.
                  Last edited by Starving Steve; August 26, 2010, 10:22 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                    3-6% inflation is not crazy high, and does not match the 'man on the street' anecdotes in the posts above.
                    India is experiencing 10%.

                    I don't know if ordinary chinese invest in stocks, bonds etc. If these are not as accessible or favoured as investments, land and gold/jewels may be considered a reliable store of value by Chen-Six-Dumpling , especially since the mentality is to think long term.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                      Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                      touchring, my point is that housing is a kiss of death during an [hyper]high-inflationary event, thus people are acting silly again:



                      It's still not clear to me from the chart above how housing is a "kiss of death" in a highly inflationary environment.

                      The owner of the house should be quite pleased since his mortgage debt has been utterly eroded away through inflation. True, the rent collected becomes worthless but the owner owns the hard asset, which does protect against high inflation.

                      Regarding China, it's my understanding that there are no property taxes in China. As a result, carrying property for speculation is quite a bit easier than in the U.S. and can result in a much higher and more dangerous bubble.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                        All things are relative. Thus it is important when discussing relative values we specify what we are comparing them against. So do we value a house in terms of dollars, yuans, barrels of oil, bushels of wheat, or ounces of gold? You bring up an interesting point about leverage in the Chinese markets. The loans are originated in Yuans, not dollars, and so the economy is short Yuans. They have a healthy surplus of Dollars thanks to the trade imbalance. Now when bubbles burst, there will be a shortage of Yuans to cover all existing debt. How this shortage is resolved will determine whether the mortgage debt denominated in Yuan will be eroded away through inflation. The US during the 1930's solved this problem by devaluing the dollar, but of course there is no gold backing anywhere in the world nowadays.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                          Originally posted by pksubs View Post
                          3-6% inflation is not crazy high, and does not match the 'man on the street' anecdotes in the posts above.
                          India is experiencing 10%.

                          I don't know if ordinary chinese invest in stocks, bonds etc. If these are not as accessible or favoured as investments, land and gold/jewels may be considered a reliable store of value by Chen-Six-Dumpling , especially since the mentality is to think long term.

                          If india is experiencing 10%, China has got to be at least 15%. 3%, nice try. lol

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
                            Ouch.

                            This cannot end well. I wonder for whom it will end badly.
                            The plebs will get it no matter what.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 65% of Beijing homes empty but prices still rising.

                              Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                              The method is questionable: 1.) People may turn their lights off if they are asleep; 2.) People may work at night elsewhere and leave their apartments dark; 3.) People may have a 1.7watt per hour light on in their apartment, but you can't see it outside; 4.) People may be out to dinner and leave their apartment dark; 5.) People might have thermal drapes and leave them closed to save energy (light).

                              If people choose to buy homes (including apartments) and leave them vacant, they might be making a rational decision in view of the damage inflation can do to money in a savings account in the bank. People are not stupid to-day, but central bankers are out-of-touch with reality.

                              Empty homes are not necessarily a bad sign in a real estate market. In fact, vacant homes may be a sign of a rising market and a lack of confidence by people in paper money.
                              Back in 1994/95 the west side high-rise luxury condo market in Vancouver looked the same...entire completed buildings with not a single light on at night. Most of the money was coming from Hong Kong. The story was that people there were getting their money out before the British turned the place back over to the Chinese. By the summer of 1995 it was obvious to anyone with one functioning brain cell that the Vancouver condo market was oversaturated and ripe for a collapse. But of course the property interest people [developers, property lawyers and realtors] kept up the line that the market could go nowhere but up because of all the money that would keep coming in from China, while they continuously reduced the size of the units to keep them "affordable".

                              The Vancouver condo market busted that summer [a full two years before the Brits handed over Hong Kong to Beijing] and ground down for 4 years after that.

                              A bubble is a bubble is a bubble. Period.

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