The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

[c1ue]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

Small things add up. I think the actual increase in CO2 is bigger than we actually thought.

1. China burning more coal than they admit.
2. Indonesia oil palm owners secretly burning jungle land.
3. Pollution in the sea killing CO2 reducing algae.
4. Crazy weather killing CO2 reducing algae and trees alike (e.g. in Russia).

CO2 is easily measurable, so I am unclear what you are trying to imply.

Unless you disagree with the Church of the new (CO2) Apocalypse which states that any CO2 generated is immediately dispersed around the world.

Also your examples fail to take into account the reality that higher CO2 levels also equate to greater plant growth. Any losses in plant cover from the Russian high pressure spot - which incidentally even the NOAA states is NOT due to global warming - is more than compensated for by overall global plant growth increases.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/moscow2010/

Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia. The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking, are the principal cause for this heat wave.

...

The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region, a region which has a climatological vulnerability to blocking and associated heat waves (e.g., 1960, 1972, 1988).

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

Nothing has changed in the global climate. This year is the second year of an El Nino in the Eastern Pacific region, and second year El Nino cycles are usually dry. This means a temporary reversion back to La Nina conditions in the Eastern Pacific. That means a dry and cool winter is in store for the west coast of North America. Baja California will likely be dry this winter. Australia and Southern Asia will have above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.

Next year (12 months from now) we go back into the wet part of the El Nino cycle on the west coast of North America. That would mean dry conditions in Australia and Southern Asia.

Too bad Pakistan didn't study the world's climate statistics. They would have had empty dams ready to capture the run-off from this summer's strong monsoon. Instead of building dams and engineering for the climate, they had another agenda--- like sheltering Bin Laden, dealing in drugs, taking U.S. foreign aid, sheltering Al Qaide, attending prayer meetings, and claiming to be victims.

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

There is no crazy weather. The weather is following its cycles, nothing extra-ordinary in the world's weather.

The bacteria and algae in the seas are doing just fine, thank you. And the oil-eating bacteria are doing wonderfully in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil spill is being cleaned-up by nature, even faster than I had predicted. I thought it would take two years for most of the oil to be gone from the Gulf of Mexico, but it appears to be taking about two months for the oil-eating bacteria to have their feast. The Gulf of Mexico will be clean very soon, probably in a few weeks, if not days.

Nature on this planet does its job beautifully. There is no evidence in nature of any so-called "tipping point" or "inflexion point" in the ecology. The so-called, "scientists" who are making these predictions of "catastrophy for the environment" obviously do not know anything about how the environment works on this planet.

And to think that these eco-frauds have all of the good government jobs, not to mention the lucrative government grants for consulting!

[touchring]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

Starving Steve says there is nothing wrong with the climate, but here in the island tropics we can detect a distinctive shift in the climate better than in temperate and continental climate places where extreme weather conditions are more common.

CO2 is easily measurable, so I am unclear what you are trying to imply.

Unless you disagree with the Church of the new (CO2) Apocalypse which states that any CO2 generated is immediately dispersed around the world.

Also your examples fail to take into account the reality that higher CO2 levels also equate to greater plant growth. Any losses in plant cover from the Russian high pressure spot - which incidentally even the NOAA states is NOT due to global warming - is more than compensated for by overall global plant growth increases.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/moscow2010/

[c1ue]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

Starving Steve says there is nothing wrong with the climate, but here in the island tropics we can detect a distinctive shift in the climate better than in temperate and continental climate places where extreme weather conditions are more common.

Once again, you spit out a statement without actual facts.

In contrast with your statement, there are published papers which categorically state that there is NO proof that global warming is affecting the tropics:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/904914/A-c...el-predictions

We have tested the proposition that greenhouse model simulations and trend observations can be reconciled. Our conclusion is that the present evidence, with the application of a robust statistical test, supports rejection of this proposition. (The use of tropical tropospheric temperature trends as a metric for this test is important, as this region represents the CEL and provides a clear signature of the trajectory of the climate system under enhanced greenhouse forcing.) On the whole, the evidence indicates that model trends in the troposphere are very likely inconsistent with observations that indicate that, since 1979, there is no significant long-term amplification factor relative to the surface. If these results continue to be supported, then future projections of temperature change, as depicted in the present suite of climate models, are likely too high.
In summary, the debate in this field revolves around the idea of discrepancy in surface and tropospheric trends in the tropics where vertical convection dominates heat transfer. Models are very consistent, as this article demonstrates, in showing a significant difference between surface and tropospheric trends, with tropospheric tem- perature trends warming faster than the surface. What is new in this article is the determination of a very robust estimate of the magnitude of the model trends at each atmospheric layer. These are compared with several equally robust updated estimates of trends from observa- tions which disagree with trends from the models.
The last 25 years constitute a period of more complete and accurate observations and more realistic modelling efforts. Yet the models are seen to disagree with the observations. We suggest, therefore, that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with much caution.

Further the actual temperature record seems to contradict your beliefs:



Doesn't look like a clear upward trend to me. 2009 was a down year, 2010 is an up year globally but much less so in the tropics.

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

Here on the west coast of North America, we have been running well below normal temperatures, especially in California. Even here in British Columbia, we have been colder than normal and bone-dry.

The eastern Pacific surface water has been cold this summer, even in Hawaii, and rainfall has been scant. So this is "the tell" of a dry and cool winter ahead. For California, this would mean plenty of frost in the citrus and winter vegetable areas of the state. Precipitation will be about 70% or 80% of normal for the year to come.

The Earth's climate has not changed. Climate data offers a story on how to deal with predictable cycles in weather. Why didn't Pakistan study climate data and have empty dams ready to capture this summer's monsoon run-off? And the year before, we had the flood in Jeddah, Saudi-Arabia; again, no dams, no flood-control, no planning, no engineering,....nothing.

Anyone care to take a critical look at Africa? Haiti? Should the Western World send money to charities to perpetuate this state of affairs in these parts of the world?

In California, there are dams to capture run-off, even in the Mojave Desert, even in the Colorado Desert, even in the Kern Desert. Why would that be?

In the coastal region of Libya, 24 inches is the mean annual rainfall at Derna. Even Tripoli gets 10 inches of rain per year. Where are the dams in Libya? Where are the water projects? Why is northern Libya a vast desert to-day, when it rains so much there? Cyrenaica was the grain-belt of the Roman Empire, and to-day it is part of the Sahara Desert; yet it rains now in Cyrenaica, just as it did in ancient times.

I have films of tank battles in WWII fought in the Sahara Desert, and the desert is flooded due to a heavy and pro-longed rainfall. Why the flooding at El Alamein in Egypt and the flooding in Tobruk in Libya?

These aren't politically-correct questions, but they need to be asked because the climate of the Middle East has not changed. The Earth's climate is stable...... "What are the people in the Middle East and Africa doing?" That is the question to ask.

[touchring]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

This global warming is misnomer. Average temperatures don't have to go up for global warming to happen. Extreme weather conditions is also a sign of global warming. Pollution can sometimes reduce temperature by blocking out sunlight.

Once again, you spit out a statement without actual facts.

In contrast with your statement, there are published papers which categorically state that there is NO proof that global warming is affecting the tropics:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/904914/A-c...el-predictions



Further the actual temperature record seems to contradict your beliefs:



Doesn't look like a clear upward trend to me. 2009 was a down year, 2010 is an up year globally but much less so in the tropics.

[c1ue]

Re: The Three Chinas and World Energy Demand

This global warming is misnomer. Average temperatures don't have to go up for global warming to happen. Extreme weather conditions is also a sign of global warming. Pollution can sometimes reduce temperature by blocking out sunlight.

Uh ok.

So therefore the longest heat wave on record - the 160 day period in Marble Bar, Australia where temperatures exceeded 37.8 degrees C (100 degrees F) - must be indicative of global warming under your prognosis.

Except that this occurred in 1923.

To a hammer, every problem is a nail.

To an AGW apologist, every climactic symptom is a sign of global warming.