Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

[Jay]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

But then again it will cause demand shock as well and later prices will come down.

As the proportion of dollar claims held abroad versus US GDP increases, a proportional increase I expect will happen in the case of 500$ oil, the foreign exchange value of the dollar will decline (assuming interest rates do not increase at about the same rate as foreign dollar claims, which I doubt they do during the uncertainty of war, as you note in your mention of Treasuries as a safe haven.) The oil price will reflect this process, so it should stay high.

Also, you mention demand, but supply is equally a factor and one of the largest oil producing nations in the world would be at war and the Straits of Hormuz would be closed! You do use the word later, but as we have seen, perpetual war seems to be the new normal in US. In my mind, war with Iran would go on long enough for the US to implement a new energy policy and possibly a new currency. At least that would be the likely plan, black swans excluded.

There would be an interesting (and dangerous!) balance between the world's need for dollars to continue some sort of global trade, America's need to expand into a new bubble, and the hatred of those players for the dollar and of American imperialism, and overwhelmingly their fear that as the dollar claims to US GDP ratio increases someone might run for the exits. There would be immense pressures on an overvalued dollar, yet a vast need for it! Really this is the Triffin dilemma write large. I do know what the new bubble is, it is war with Iran!

So which sovereign nation's going to end the game and yell "FIRE" in what's becoming a crowded theater!? Pun intended. Will there be any sovereign takers out there?

[Jay]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

They don't want the threat of a Nuclear Armed Iran hanging over the stability of the region.

First of all, what an incredible post. I would ask you jtabeb, what do you feel is more important to most Sunni, stability or getting a chance to smack down the Shia? Because the economic instability engendered by war with Iran could also cause your 35 year old cousin a chance at marrying who he chooses.

[jtabeb]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

First of all, what an incredible post. I would ask you jtabeb, what do you feel is more important to most Sunni, stability or getting a chance to smack down the Shia? Because the economic instability engendered by war with Iran could also cause your 35 year old cousin a chance at marrying who he chooses.

To put this in VERY blunt terms (which I will apologize for IN ADVANCE), I think people around the world are all the same. They JUST WANNA GET LAID! (In what ever way, shape or form, that co-insides with their personal and religious beliefs). I don't think any SANE PERSON (Including ALL the people that I know) would give that up to spite someone, or something else. The ones that would are insane or in the 5%-15%, or BOTH!

Does that answer it for you?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Who needs employment as long as the world is buying dollars again?

Interesting perspective, Jay. I like it.

This current economic turmoil continues to remind me of the stagflation, oil crisis, gold price pop, and (I anticipate) spike to perhaps 20% in long Treasury bond yields that we saw in the 1970's and early 1980's. Are we about to replay the 1973 Oil Crisis, details changed to protect the guilty? Do you recall the gas lines of Jimmy Carter? Might we be seeing them again, in some form? That episode managed to put the threatened Dollar back on top again. Is Zbigniew Brzezinski likely to be around for a replay of this scenario?

When Drudge reports the opening (false flag?) provocation for war on Iran, I'm driving that day to my favorite discount warehouse for a few more bags of rice and beans.

[D-Mack]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

To put this in VERY blunt terms (which I will apologize for IN ADVANCE), I think people around the world are all the same. They JUST WANNA GET LAID! (In what ever way, shape or form, that co-insides with their personal and religious beliefs). I don't think any SANE PERSON (Including ALL the people that I know) would give that up to spite someone, or something else. The ones that would are insane or in the 5%-15%, or BOTH!

Does that answer it for you?

Looks like he heard you and is going the Russian way, still sounds fishy to me, this proposal (government account , matching funds, withdraw at 20).

Iran to pay for new babies to boost population

By NASSER KARIMI (AP) – 12 hours ago
TEHRAN, Iran — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a new policy on Tuesday to encourage population growth, dismissing Iran's decades of internationally-acclaimed family planning as ungodly and a Western import.
The new government initiative will pay families for every new child and deposit money into the newborn's bank account until they reach 18, effectively rolling back years of efforts to boost the economy by reducing the country's once runaway population growth.


..

Under the new plan each child born in the current Iranian year, which began March 21, will receive a deposit of $950 in a government bank account. They will then continue to receive another $95 every year until they reach 18. Parents will also be expected to pay matching funds into the accounts.
Under the initiative's rules children can withdraw the money at the age of 20 and use it for education, marriage, health and housing.



http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...zoG5wD9H7K84G0

[WildspitzE]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

The leader of Iran and most of the mullahs in power belong to a radical sect of Islam called Twelvers. They believe that by creating chaos they are hastening the return of the twelfth Iman who will usher in an era of Islamic rule. If these guys get a nuke they will use it.

Where did this "explanation" come from? Doesn't it seem more plausible that they (1) are a country that doesn't want to be under the thumb of any other country (particularly the west), and (2) understand that the only way to get geopolitical respect is to have nukes? Perhaps the "explanation" quoted above is used to motivate zealots (regardless of the side).

Ain't it funny, we invade Iraq because they have WMD's only to find out they don't but that the Iranians are working on one. Do you think our intelligence is really that bad? Or is it all a massive neocon ploy to create a couple more friendly states to sell us oil?

I don't think anybody believes that the US is creating friendly states through these actions. Perhaps it has to do more with protecting the interests of existing friendly states, i.e. Jewish and Sunni.

[Jay]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

To put this in VERY blunt terms (which I will apologize for IN ADVANCE), I think people around the world are all the same. They JUST WANNA GET LAID! (In what ever way, shape or form, that co-insides with their personal and religious beliefs). I don't think any SANE PERSON (Including ALL the people that I know) would give that up to spite someone, or something else. The ones that would are insane or in the 5%-15%, or BOTH!

Does that answer it for you?

The answer I come up with is that he might be stuck either way. No war means poor economic conditions for him as the Western powers squeeze Iran. War means economic chaos, which is likely much worse, at least in his time frame.

[bobola]

Re: Oh My God...Burma is working on an A Bomb!

I'm an ex-marine engineer.

My guess is that one of the crew was smoking and ignited something.

I replaced an engineer on one boat who’s smoldering cigarette ignited an engine room fire.

Fortunately the crew discovered it in time.

I guess that urge to light up supersedes common sense sometimes…

[ASH]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Bear with me as I play the devil's advocate a bit here.

Might not war again be a useful tool to unlock spending if the political pressure towards austerity gains steam?

That depends upon whether political pressure for austerity survives the consequences of austerity. My expectation is that it won't, but if it did, then I agree with you that a national security rationale for spending would be useful.

I don't know whether this transition would resemble the gains from the industrial revolution or look more like the fall of Rome but I doubt anyone else does either. It could actually look like both depending on your time frame. Remember, the whole scenario is based on the fact that monetary policy is backed into a corner.

It's the uncertainty associated with this scenario which makes me question whether it would be pursued as policy. But I acknowledge that being in a significant bind was a prerequisite assumption.

I'm currently operating under the assumption that we won't get to a point where this seems like a good idea, but events may surprise me. (This is not to say that your ideas about this are not "good" -- I'm just restating my own perception that we'd have to be pretty darn desperate to try it.)

[sishya]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Who needs employment as long as the world is buying dollars again?

That was one Perspective our long gone esteemed Guest "Symbols" aka $#* brought to iTulip forum.
Dollar Uber Alles.
We will surely miss him when things turn for the worse.
I am watching Dec 2010 - tick tock tick tock , just an intuition.

[Roughneck]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

The leader of Iran and most of the mullahs in power belong to a radical sect of Islam called Twelvers. They believe that by creating chaos they are hastening the return of the twelfth Iman who will usher in an era of Islamic rule. If these guys get a nuke they will use it. Ain't it funny, we invade Iraq because they have WMD's only to find out they don't but that the Iranians are working on one. Do you think our intelligence is really that bad? Or is it all a massive neocon ploy to create a couple more friendly states to sell us oil?

[bobola]

Re: Oh My God...Burma is working on an A Bomb!

US Navy Investigating 'Attack' on Japanese Tanker in Hormuz

A Japanese tanker M. Star carrying 270,000 tons of oil was reported damaged by an explosion, possibly caused by an attack, Wednesday, July 28, near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which passes Iran and Oman. One minor injury was caused but no oil leak. The tanker is now on its way towards Japan.

The spokesperson for the tanker's owners Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd said the suspected attack must have come from the outside. "We believe it's highly likely an attack, maybe a terrorist incident. There is nothing that could cause a spontaneous explosion in that part of the vessel."

The US Fifth Fleet spokesman in Bahrain said it was trying to get more information on the incident. Initial damage assessment from the ship's owner is that one lifeboat was blown off the ship and there is some damage to the starboard hatches," the Fifth Fleet said.

The Strait of Hormuz is the transit point for 40 percent of oil shipped worldwide. Tehran has recently stepped up its threats to disrupt shipping through the chokepoint straits if attacked.

International shippers are also constantly worried by piracy, although thus far the pirates have not attacked Japanese vessels.

An Omani coastal guard source attributed the explosion to a low-level earthquake around Bandar Abbas on the Iranian shore of Hormuz. The Iranian seismological institute confirmed a slight 3.4 Richter magnitude tremor. However, DEBKAfile's military sources report that a crew member was said by the ship's owners to have seen a flash of light just before the explosion which does not sound like an earthquake.

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Oh My God...Burma is working on an A Bomb!

US Navy Investigating 'Attack' on Japanese Tanker in Hormuz

A Japanese tanker M. Star carrying 270,000 tons of oil was reported damaged by an explosion, possibly caused by an attack, Wednesday, July 28, near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which passes Iran and Oman. One minor injury was caused but no oil leak. The tanker is now on its way towards Japan.

The spokesperson for the tanker's owners Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd said the suspected attack must have come from the outside. "We believe it's highly likely an attack, maybe a terrorist incident. There is nothing that could cause a spontaneous explosion in that part of the vessel."

The US Fifth Fleet spokesman in Bahrain said it was trying to get more information on the incident. Initial damage assessment from the ship's owner is that one lifeboat was blown off the ship and there is some damage to the starboard hatches," the Fifth Fleet said.

The Strait of Hormuz is the transit point for 40 percent of oil shipped worldwide. Tehran has recently stepped up its threats to disrupt shipping through the chokepoint straits if attacked.

International shippers are also constantly worried by piracy, although thus far the pirates have not attacked Japanese vessels.

An Omani coastal guard source attributed the explosion to a low-level earthquake around Bandar Abbas on the Iranian shore of Hormuz. The Iranian seismological institute confirmed a slight 3.4 Richter magnitude tremor. However, DEBKAfile's military sources report that a crew member was said by the ship's owners to have seen a flash of light just before the explosion which does not sound like an earthquake.

Use your common -SENSE ! The last think a predominantly oil exporting nation wants is the appearance of instability at a vital shipping lane. However -if you were a an Orwellian Machiavellian -you might want to promote the instability with fabrications and false flag ops to de-rail this very important access point to world markets - so that your enemy (Iran) would have difficulty having said supertankers from coming through the zone/ gulf.

This country is getting out of control -the numbers of patently false flag ops from Gulf of Tomkin/ the Maine etc is proliferating like a Malignant melanoma on the face of the earth. However thanks to the miracle of TV -we 'know' that it is Iran -who has EVERYTHING to lose and nothing to win by this gambit. Don't worry -I am sure someone will come up with infallible pretzel logic to show -that it is to Iran's benefit -especially at a time when as usual the cabal of G5 are expressedly shouting it from rooftops. Which as many people know MUST make it true.

[sishya]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

I disagree wholeheartedly. I personally have friends that live in the middle east (family, my dad's relatives actually, my father was Palestinian, he died fighting the Russians in Afghanistan circa 1984) and what I have learned the most from visiting them and talking with them is that about 85%-95% of people just want to live in peace. They don't want the threat of a Nuclear Armed Iran hanging over the stability of the region. It is why the leaders of many Middle Eastern Countries are offering their tacit approval of such a strike, because they know there will not be ANY strenuous objection from their domestic populations. Indeed, many Suni Arabs would revel at a Shia Iran getting smacked down. (Don't forget Iran is Shia and Persian, most of the rest of the Arab-Muslim world is Sunni). This is A HUGE FACTOR in the calculus. My Uncle is an EXTREMIST Sunni Muslim and he hates Shia more than the Israelis (well, almost). To him it is okay for a Sunni to Kill a Shia BECAUSE HE DOES NOT CONSIDER THEM MUSLIM!?! Can you believe that. It's true though. I think there are many MANY Sunni like this, a super-majority, if you will, and that is why I fundamentally think you are wrong about your concept of any Muslim Unity forming in support of Iran's cause. I see the exact opposite happening instead, I see the Arab-Sunni Muslim world uniting (again 85-95%) in support of the effort to dismantle Iran's nuclear capability, even if it comes to attacks, because the Lion's share of people in the middle east just want economic development. They want to be able to get married which better economic trade conditions would allow. People like my cousin Said just wants to make enough money to get married and buy a house and provide for his future children, he is 35 and lives on the west bank. I promise you, the last thing he wants is anything that disrupts economic normalization because that pushes off his personal goal of being able to marry. Almost ALL of my cousins are like this. The girls too. They want to marry a person that they LOVE, not have to marry some one that has been arranged for them due to economic hardship of the family. If you haven't been to the middle east you have to understand that most people don't have sex until they are married, especially the religious ones like my family in the west bank and in Jordon. They want to live a halal life and they need economic mobility to do this. A Nuclear Iran provides the exact OPPOSITE of economic mobility and thus ruins their chances to marry and have sexual relations in the manner proscribed by the Prophet Mohammed P.B.O.H.. It really this fundamentally simple. Iran going totally against this religiousness with it's nuclear program and that is why they will never have the support og either the secular or religious. The secular want economic mobility for economic mobilities sake. The religious want it so that they can preserve a halal life style, they can't do that if they can't afford to marry. This reason and the reasons above are why I think your conclusion is totally false. But, Hey, I'm just the guy who has been long 100% gold and silver since 2000 and beat Itulip by 400% on an annualized basis, so what do I know, right?

I think you also have to understand how people in the middle east still view the US. I live in the US and am in the US Air Force and am Muslim, and have family in the middle east so I kind of have a unique perspective on things. My Aunt once asked me which was better, the US or the West Bank. I was trying to be nice, so I said the West Bank. She scolded me and told me I was wrong, because in the US I have freedom and economic mobility (which they DID NOT). She told me I was stupid for not understanding this. I saw her point then( post 9/11) and it is still valid now.

Anyway, this is a good discussion. I hope that you do not take offense in anything I said, I was just trying to be as honest as I can. I tend to upset people when I do this so I try to apologize in advance, I'm just kind of a direct person and tend to say more than I should because I like to prove people wrong when they are wrong, and myself right when I am right. It's a character flaw that I'm working to resolve.

V/R

JT

JT,
Good to know that your father had conviction in life.
Yes I know the Sunni/Shia divide is over a 1000 years old compared to a Jew/Mslim divide which may be only a 100 years old. I have read the Sunni/Shia fighting during Ashura procession when it is taken through Sunni Quarters in India - hey it happens every year everywhere. It is a not good for a 35 year old male not be married.

But I still don't think the powerless people of UAE/Jordan/Indonesia.....others will support such a strike - you need not apologize but may be you are right, but I know, where I come from people were totally against US policies during last 10 years.

[bobola]

Re: Oh My God...Burma is working on an A Bomb!

Damage was to the starboard side as the tanker is traveling through the strait with a full load.

Starboard side faces toward the friendly side on a ship leaving that area. Port side faces Iran. Could mean nothing.