Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

[D-Mack]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Now I'm thinking that a strike on Iran would be politically suicidal for Obama (strongly weakening the support of his base), and is the absolute last thing that our security planners would want to deal with... and that this guy's theories about Cheney are absolutely delusional... but then again, a couple years ago, I thought we'd strike Iran before the end of Bush's term in office.

The problem with his base is that they don't listen

Unfortunately I have to agree with Kristols analysis of his Nobel Prize speech.

[Mega]

Oh My God...Burma is working on an A Bomb!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rts-claim.html

Now let me see, Burma is full of Gas & oil & has found the West "want it"....Thus they start this project. In their place i do the same!

Go Burma!

[jtabeb]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

"A couple of years ago, I thought to myself: we're definitely going to bomb Iran before the end of Bush's term in office.

Then that National Intelligence Estimate came out, and I thought: huh -- that's the one thing that could happen that would make a strike politically impossible for this administration.

In the years following that NIE, the public position of some of our allies hardened on Iran, and we publicized our discovery of the site at Qom. Then I thought: Obama won't shoot until he's gone through the requisite diplomatic motions... which have largely been completed."

You've done the exact same calculus that I have and come to a completely different conclusion, very interesting.

Maybe both of our postulations are correct and it is Iran that is in the position to choose the outcome. That's the only way a paradox can ever be resolved, through choice on the part of the actor that caused the paradox.

[D-Mack]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

I believe he didn't touch upon the Russia Israel angle, now I can see why Russia played the game the way they did.

The 'unravelling relationship' between Russia and Iran

...

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly berated Mr Medvedev for buckling under what he said was US pressure for fresh sanctions.
'Not serious threat' Moscow's policies towards the Middle East are clearly very different from its Cold War stance, when it steadfastly supported Muslim nations against the US and its closest ally, Israel.
Today Russia is seriously distressed by the spread of Western influence and the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) into what it considers its legitimate sphere of "privileged interests": Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics.



...


Of course, Moscow has genuine business and security interests in the larger Middle East: supplying arms and nuclear technologies to Arab nations and to Iran.
At the same time, Russia has an increasingly important military and security relationship with Israel.
With Israel, Russia has been jointly producing billions of dollars worth of weapons for India.
The Russian military have acquired a substantial batch of different types of Israeli-made spy drones or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the first official procurement of a major weapon system from a Western nation since 1945.
Moscow is at present negotiating the joint production of UAVs with Israel in Russia.




...




The cancelling of the S-300 sale when the due process of vetting by all required government agencies was complete, and the hardware ready for shipping, has financially hurt influential officials and caused anger.
But Tel Aviv also has a lobby in Moscow.
An additional factor that may further influence the decision-making in Moscow is Saudi Arabia's offer to buy more than $2bn worth of Russian weapons (helicopters, armour, anti-aircraft missiles) on condition that Russia does not sell Iran S-300 missiles, and stops supporting it in the UN.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-10684110

[c1ue]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

I believe he didn't touch upon the Russia Israel angle, now I can see why Russia played the game the way they did.

I would note that the S-300 sale hasn't been cancelled. They just haven't been delivered yet.

And for every Russian deal with Saudi Arabia or cooperation with Israel, there is a Russian deal with Iran as well: many of the technicians in the nuclear operation in question are Russian. The biggest beneficiary of the UN embargo on gasoline sales to Iran would be the ex-USSR republics around Iran.

Iran absolutely is a historical rival for Russia - there is a reason why Iran's air force is American and why Saddam used Soviet equipment.

But the Russian game is much deeper than is apparent.

My take is this recent Russian non-noncompliance (very carefully worded!) with its previous Iran policy has more to do with South Stream, natural gas/LNG, and OGEC - Iran having the 2nd most natural gas reserves - than anything Israel related.

The Saudi angle is interesting as well - a Saudi cooperation or at least non-interference with a shift off the petrodollar would also be worth sticking it to Iran for a while.

US warplanes bombing Iran - directly or via an Israel proxy - only serves to further illustrate why Iran needs Russia more than vice versa.

Yet another reason why bombing Iran would be a huge geopolitical error on the part of the US.

[jtabeb]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

NO you are not missing something. But I think that most people DO miss something. They assume that Iran IS NOT a rational actor, this is a FALSE assumption (and a VERY FALSE ONE AT THAT).

If you look at everything Iran has done and the response that they have gotten for each of their efforts to re-approach the west, then their actions make perfect sense from a purely logical perspective. It is only Ahmadeenijad's rhetoric that makes them look irrational, in much the same way that George Bush's (the younger) rhetoric made the US appear irrational. (Hint, it wasn't! It was purely rational with the appearance of irrationality to obscure motive). Iran is no different in this sense.

These are the exact same flawed assumptions that led to the financial crisis only this time applied to a nuclear confrontation between the west and a non-nuclear Iran. Let's hope that THIS TIME flawed assumptions do not rule the day, and that a purely rational analysis is undertaken to see things as they are. Iran is a power acting out of a sense of self-preservation. They are taking what they see as the only logical course of action that they can to ensure their survival. The Iranians have just as much to loose as the west does from a war, if not far FAR more. Let's hope that cooler heads prevail and a peaceful solution that is agreeable to BOTH sides can be reached before the Casus Belli reaches Crescendo. But Make no MISTAKE about this, IRAN is going to have to MAKE A CHOICE and LEAD they way out of this. I don't think there is any other way. They HAVE TO CHOOSE the path forward.

[D-Mack]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

I would note that the S-300 sale hasn't been cancelled. They just haven't been delivered yet.

And for every Russian deal with Saudi Arabia or cooperation with Israel, there is a Russian deal with Iran as well: many of the technicians in the nuclear operation in question are Russian. The biggest beneficiary of the UN embargo on gasoline sales to Iran would be the ex-USSR republics around Iran.

Iran absolutely is a historical rival for Russia - there is a reason why Iran's air force is American and why Saddam used Soviet equipment.

But the Russian game is much deeper than is apparent.

My take is this recent Russian non-noncompliance (very carefully worded!) with its previous Iran policy has more to do with South Stream, natural gas/LNG, and OGEC - Iran having the 2nd most natural gas reserves - than anything Israel related.

The Saudi angle is interesting as well - a Saudi cooperation or at least non-interference with a shift off the petrodollar would also be worth sticking it to Iran for a while.

US warplanes bombing Iran - directly or via an Israel proxy - only serves to further illustrate why Iran needs Russia more than vice versa.

Yet another reason why bombing Iran would be a huge geopolitical error on the part of the US.

The Russians deliver junk sometimes,
Indian Navy Refuses To Accept Delivery of Russian Submarine Sindhuvijay

Tor M1 didn't work for Syria against Israel
http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articl...456456,00.html

They argue with technical difficulties, but 3 years? Still, I bet Iran has more Russian planes in sevice than US made, because they got them serviced by them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Air_Force

'Big losses' if Russia halts Iran's S-300s



Russia cited "technical difficulties," but it was under intense pressure from the United States, as well as Israel, not to supply the missiles. Tehran wants them to protect its key nuclear facilities against air attack.
At present, the Iranian air-defense system does not have anything remotely like the S-300, which can engage multiple targets, missiles as well as aircraft, at ranges of more than 100 miles at low and high altitudes.




...

Russia has been a major arms supplier to Iran over the last decade, despite U.S.-led international arms embargoes imposed soon after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Moscow has supplied AT-3 K11 and AT-4 9K111 anti-tank missile systems and 25 Mi-17 and Mi-8 transport helicopters as well as Pantsyr S-1E and Tor M1 short-range air-defense missiles.
Russia's state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport, is currently upgrading Iranian T-72 tanks, Sukhoi Su-24 ground attack jets and MiG-29 interceptors under a $1.5 billion deal.
It is not known at this point whether that upgrade program will continue.


http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Sec...0011278091069/

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Nuclear War with Iran will have several possible consequences, about which the Iranian leadership is undoubtedly aware:

1) The destruction of Israel. They won't be able to kill everyone there. Two million people marching with pick axes to Israel will be unstoppable. The Iranians are very familiar with human wave attacks.

2) Civil War in the US. The common man of this country no longer believes any of this nonsense and really wants to forget the rest of the world exists. Combined with our many economic problems, there is no doubt some sections of the US will secede.

3) Wholesale world war. Nuking Iran will undoubtedly make some in Russia and China believe rightly that the US, and the liberal (i.e. egalitarianism and individualism, with its tyrannical application to the world) ideology in general, is too dangerous to risk its continued existence. The cultural destruction Americanism has wrought on the world is reason enough to incite war.

4) Economic collapse is a near certainty. I can say this: If nuclear war takes place at the hands of the American democratic regime, I am fleeing NYC immediately. There is no way in hell I am going to be in this city with several billion angry people out there ready to exact revenge.

[Ghent12]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Don't hold your breath.

Once Iran/China knows "Its on" expect at the 11th hour for Iran to "Light one up in desert"......the "guts" surplied by North Korea (under orders from China).....China hands are clean.......so what do you do....attack Iran & see Isreal get Nuked....willing to take the chance (they not!)........attack North Korea & China will considered it an attack on them....

Check Mate.
mike

Wait, what?

Iran and North Korea, working together, in some sort of axis... of bad guys? An Axis of Evil? Was the Dubya a damn prophet? Would Saddam Hussein be involved in a nuclear arms race if he were not just a stain in the history books now?

How curious this thread is. I'm totally digging all the posts here.

[seanm123]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

When will someone (China, India etc) stop importing crude from Iran.
So far that has not happened, even the EU has not stopped importing crude and doing energy deals.

The following is a synopsis of current energy deals with Iran.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63A01120100413

If we bomb surely there will be oil price shocks. That cannot be good for the economy, and some doubt the Saudis
can step in to replace the 2.6 million barrels a day already exported daily from Iran is an all out war starts.

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

First of all -in reply to the above Reuters article -what we can infer is that the excess supplies that Europe is refusing will certainly go to Energy hungry nations in Asia -particularly China/India/Malaysia and Indonesia. In addition I am sure South America and an emerging Africa (the last bubble) would have no problems taking oil -especially if they don't hae to part with US dollars for the privilege!


Russia has shown time and again -that is a part of G5 cabal of colonizers and is useful to colonizers as an apparent foil but in reality and historically -this has been proven to be a ruse.

Iran/ N Korea has since inception been aware that there 'existence' itself (countries rejecting colonial hegemony) is a threat to continued resource plundering. Because of this -their armed forces are and have been prepared for aggression and military conflict at a level much higher than their previous foes in recent times as Panama/Grenada/Iraq -this is why the US is much more wary of conflict with these rather small nations.

However -what I feel has turned the pendulum is in essence what exchange did for the Islamic empire (founders of Algebra/Algorithms/Cannons) did for the European world -- essentially mimics the divide of wealth and technology that the US and its compatriot colonizers have since the 1600's till now. The rush to outsource has led to the inevitable exchange of knowledge and as the micro-cosm of the United States has shown -technology is less magical to the rest of the world then it was a mere 300 years.

This trend is accelerating as countries are independently creating nuclear technology, armed forces technology and have a different view in terms of resource allocation. For example -China eschewing large mega-carriers for submarines and missliles which are much more inexpensive to produce and maintain. Iran going for a fleet of small, heavily armed speed boats with missiles than destroyers, cruisers.

Physical force and destruction on a ghastly scale is real under-pinnings of the Euro/Dollar and not all this claptrap about trade and technology. Even brain-washed from birth citizens and rabid zionist parasites to these countries are starting to realize that exponentially rising deficits to provide these weapons of destruction can not be sustained. Soon docile puppet regimes like the Saudis/UAE etc will also tire of the stable of White Elephants (f-16s/destroyers/etc) and they shall look to invest in their own infra-structure.

It shall take probably another two centuries -but as surely as the losing crusades ushered in the birth of western dominance -so too shall the multiple losing wars of Asia -Korea/Afghanistan/Iraq/etc will necessarily erode the technology edge which shrinks with every decade and has finally lit the understanding of plowing 'reserves' into theor own country and not treasuries.

It is inexorable that the pendulum swings back and as the Caliphs/Rajas/ Emperors laughed at western impudence from 600AD to 1200AD -the conflicts and inter-actions brought concepts which gave birth to invention and then technology.

Rome was not foolish and no amount of falsified history can diminsih the fact -that Alexander WAS STOPPED on the gangetic plains. Had he continued and met even more advances on his way to China -he would have surely been massacred at some point. It was this legacy that led many historians to continue to proclaim empires that were based only in a small ring that we call the mediterranean and forget time and time again the vastness of the empires of Attila and Genghis Khan.

Engaging Iran in battle will be a catalyst that accelerates this I believe because technology transfer as already occurred during the last 10 years and surely some of the US's/Israels earlier munitions have been reverse engineered. Lastly -the key is air superiority not naval superiority and it is a matter of time before missile technology is mature enough for them to produce thousands at inexpensive cost -and sacrificing accuracy.

It will also exacerbate the third most important partner in supporting their debt plagued countries and be the signal event that causes puppet potentates downfall in the gulf and the significant support of Euro/Dllar debt financing.

[Jay]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

For the record, I think there is almost no chance that we will attack Iran in the next two years, because all the factors of which I'm aware point against it: it's bad politics for Obama, it's one crisis too many for the country's leadership (actually, it would probably be the second or third crisis beyond what we're presently able to handle), and from a strategic viewpoint we aren't in a position to follow up in any way that would achieve lasting results. Also, I would say that there is zero chance we will use nuclear weapons to do so, if we do attack Iranian nuclear sites -- I don't think it is technically necessary to use nuclear weapons, and the political harm from doing so would far outweigh the limited technical advantages. In my opinion, Israel is the wild card -- they see this both as more of an existential danger, and a more immediate danger, than do we. I'm just not certain that the Israelis have a high enough confidence in success to launch something entirely on their own, and I doubt the US's calculations are such that they would let the Israelis force their hand into providing assistance.

What do you think of the idea that 500$ oil will actually be a boon to the US if we get in deep enough financial straights (looking at the edge of a deflationary abyss); since most of the global trade in oil is denominated in dollars, it will allow the US to print a whole lot of FNR's to feed a newly voracious international dollar need. That fear of a deflationary abyss might trump all other considerations.

[jtabeb]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Could be worse, right?

But doesn't that imply a $150,000 USD / Toz price for gold?

[ASH]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

What do you think of the idea that 500$ oil will actually be a boon to the US if we get in deep enough financial straights (looking at the edge of a deflationary abyss); since most of the global trade in oil is denominated in dollars, it will allow the US to print a whole lot of FNR's to feed a newly voracious international dollar need. That fear of a deflationary abyss might trump all other considerations.

I presume that most of that notional price rise would reflect an actual tightening of supply, as Iranian production was removed from the global supply, and transport through the Strait of Hormuz was interrupted. I think a supply shock of that magnitude would be devastating to the global economy, and not least to the US as a major net importer of energy. I agree that the impact would be inflationary, but not in a "helpful" way... it would increase the real value of our economy's energy import needs while stifling economic growth and trade, exacerbating the employment and demand problems that deficit spending is meant to alleviate. A supply shock like that would be "peak cheap oil" come early, and without any opportunity for adjustment. I think the real value of our current account deficit would likely rise along with the real value of our energy import needs, and would tend to erode the value of the dollar for foreign exchange and hasten the adoption of some other basis for trade if we tried to do a lot of printing.

In general, I don't think that planning for a supply shock to enable a lot of printing by the Fed is the type of thing likely to appeal to our strategic planners. I suspect they have an allergy to triggering really large disruptive economic events because the outcome is difficult to predict or control, and because most of our policies, institutions, and plans are built around an economic world order where we hold a lot of cards. Established power doesn't generally go for big game-changers when changing the game might risk the basis for that power. Of course, you describe this going down in a situation where their backs are truly against a deflationary wall. It's true that desperate measures are more likely in desperate times. I'm just skeptical that our leaders would see a massive energy supply shock as a net positive, in the context of trying to revive the economy.

[jtabeb]

Re: Iran is SCREWED!!!!!!

Would it be a net positive for Iran though, that is the question in question on this thread.

I can clearly see that this would be the oil shock that broke the camel's back, what you say above may be true but would this not also destroy the crude oil market as countries looked for alternatives in the wake of this devastating supply shock?

I mean nothing would do more to galvanize world support to move away from oil dependence than what you describe above. Also, what if the US had some technological solution to the problem of replacing oil and just has not yet gone public with the information. That would indeed change the calculus would it not? The world depends on a stable supply of oil for it's needs, take away stability and the world is going to go looking for a new solution. That prospect can't make oil producing countries too happy.