Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I agree. Very minimal lifestyle for everyone. If you want more you need to struggle for it. More and more like this everyday.

The only problem is that I think a lot of bright people will go off the rails on such a scenario. People do not want to slave away for the marketing crap. Especially the bright ones.

[ggirod]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I decided my best response would be to finish your sentence a bit differently .....

From RebePete: In Baltimore city, near where I live,

The Baltimore Sun, just a bit over a year ago, reported the local Maker Faire even with a video.
The local Baltimore Food Makers are vigorously sharing information and techniques to help the people raise and eat better food ... proof that creativity comes in all sorts of people, not just those who claim to be gifted with it.
A Google search for Baltimore Linux reveals an impressive array of opportunities of all sorts in that town.

You sound like the kind of person that spends all his time with highly motivated, creative people.

Creativity is a trait shared by all sorts of people, and frequently it requires but an opportunity to be expressed to show itself dramatically.

The Maker movement, Open Source Movements, and Creative Commons, to mention a few, are just starting to gain critical mass and they are growing largely because they do not represent any particular ideology, religion, or economic system. Instead, they represent an opportunity for people to develop themselves in ways THEY want to grow. Many programmers in Open Source work all day as paid software engineers and then dedicate some of their best creative juices to Open Source. If the only motivation were altruistic the whole system would probably collapse but the people contributing are often doing so for self development, fame and respect, the opportunity to work with leading edge technologies, and the opportunity to be a part of something massively greater than themselves. Somehow, none of those things are political or require government intervention or worse, control.

[RebbePete]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I decided my best response would be to finish your sentence a bit differently .....
The Baltimore Sun, just a bit over a year ago, reported the local Maker Faire even with a video.
The local Baltimore Food Makers are vigorously sharing information and techniques to help the people raise and eat better food ... proof that creativity comes in all sorts of people, not just those who claim to be gifted with it.
A Google search for Baltimore Linux reveals an impressive array of opportunities of all sorts in that town.Creativity is a trait shared by all sorts of people, and frequently it requires but an opportunity to be expressed to show itself dramatically.

The Maker movement, Open Source Movements, and Creative Commons, to mention a few, are just starting to gain critical mass and they are growing largely because they do not represent any particular ideology, religion, or economic system. Instead, they represent an opportunity for people to develop themselves in ways THEY want to grow. Many programmers in Open Source work all day as paid software engineers and then dedicate some of their best creative juices to Open Source. If the only motivation were altruistic the whole system would probably collapse but the people contributing are often doing so for self development, fame and respect, the opportunity to work with leading edge technologies, and the opportunity to be a part of something massively greater than themselves. Somehow, none of those things are political or require government intervention or worse, control.

My suggestion to you is to demonstrate your altruism by finding a soup kitchen near you and volunteering for the afternoon. You might find a better appreciation for how difficult the non-creative "left behind" members of society are faring. Maybe you can give them some creative ideas for getting involved in Open Source programming.

I'm not saying non-creative people are failures, just that we're seeing more and more stratification into the creative, self-motivated "haves" and the non-creative "have nots." I see both sides as an engineer and a pastor/rabbi (long story). It used to be a non-creative person could make a good living just doing the same thing day after day, not so much anymore.

- Pete

[jtabeb]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The only problem is that I think a lot of bright people will go off the rails on such a scenario. People do not want to slave away for the marketing crap. Especially the bright ones.

Maybe they can make far more meaningful and fullilling contributions in elevating the human condition. I don't think people should have to struggle (unless they have gluttoneous appetites for everything).

I'll give you an example. My wife works in a book warehouse. She volunteers between 10-30 hours a week on an irregular basis. She gets "paid" for her time in book vouchers that she can use to purchase books from the place that she volunteers at. You know what happens, we have boxes and boxes of books in our house. We are always having to work to give them away. We have a surfit of books. We don't work hard to place them for the monetary reward (there isn't one), we do it because it is putting an IDLE asset to PRODUCITVE use.

There are lot's and lot's of ways people could "get paid" for doing "good works", (I mean that in the "economic optimization" sense, not the "religious" sense.)

My wife also volunteers at our children's school. Unpaid, uncompensated time, and she just works her ASS off. Talk to anyone. It is how she "gives back" value to the community. Idea's on Itulip are what I try to "give back to the community". I could never do what my wife does, it would drive me BATTY. And, she would never choose to spend as much time as I do on this forum.

My intellectual interaction with the world is the value that I (hopefully) provide. Her service in the physical world is the value that she provides. Others produce things, that is the value that they provide. Still others, cure people of disease, or propect people's safety, or teach other's how to learn, we can all identify who the value providers are in a society (as LONG as we know about them, that is).

These things ALL add value to our society. The question is who decides what is a fair amount of compensation for the value that each has provided.

The free market does a great job of doing this, as long as the operation of the market is transparent AND as long as rules are established and ENFORCED so that attempts at gaming the system result in meaningful negative consequences that effectively discourage such activites.

If everyone has their basic needs taken care of through guaranteed income, through purchasing the goods and services that they require, it seem's natural that they would be "voting" on the things that provide value in their lives. The more value something provides, the more "votes" it will get. People who still continue to work will have significant excess potential productive value, that is CAPITAL. The will want to put that captial to use to increase productive capacity in society. As a demand is met, fewer votes will flow to those goods producers or service providers that have met demand. This will provide the opportunity for buisnesses to produce new goods or new services, and they will continue to attract capital investment until demand is satiated. This is the beauty of the market system. The WORST thing that can be present in such a system is information distortion, because it invalidates the judgements of all the actors within the system. Garbage-IN, Garbage-Out. Keep the picture as ACCURATE as possible, and clear off the veils and distortions, and people will make wise decisions BECAUSE the are INCENTIVEZED to do so. THAT, is THE GENIUS of a market, a democratic process of judging what society values and in judging what is valuable to society.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The only problem is that I think a lot of bright people will go off the rails on such a scenario. People do not want to slave away for the marketing crap. Especially the bright ones.

Maybe they can make far more meaningful and fullilling contributions in elevating the human condition. I don't think people should have to struggle (unless they have gluttoneous appetites for everything).

I'll give you an example. My wife works in a book warehouse. She volunteers between 10-30 hours a week on an irregular basis. She gets "paid" for her time in book vouchers that she can use to purchase books from the place that she volunteers at. You know what happens, we have boxes and boxes of books in our house. We are always having to work to give them away. We have a surfit of books. We don't work hard to place them for the monetary reward (there isn't one), we do it because it is putting an IDLE asset to PRODUCITVE use.

There are lot's and lot's of ways people could "get paid" for doing "good works", (I mean that in the "economic optimization" sense, not the "religious" sense.)

My wife also volunteers at our children's school. Unpaid, uncompensated time, and she just works her ASS off. Talk to anyone. It is how she "gives back" value to the community. Idea's on Itulip are what I try to "give back to the community". I could never do what my wife does, it would drive me BATTY. And, she would never choose to spend as much time as I do on this forum.

My intellectual interaction with the world is the value that I (hopefully) provide. Her service in the physical world is the value that she provides. Others produce things, that is the value that they provide. Still others, cure people of disease, or propect people's safety, or teach other's how to learn, we can all identify who the value providers are in a society (as LONG as we know about them, that is).

These things ALL add value to our society. The question is who decides what is a fair amount of compensation for the value that each has provided.

The free market does a great job of doing this, as long as the operation of the market is transparent AND as long as rules are established and ENFORCED so that attempts at gaming the system result in meaningful negative consequences that effectively discourage such activites.

If everyone has their basic needs taken care of through guaranteed income, through purchasing the goods and services that they require, it seem's natural that they would be "voting" on the things that provide value in their lives. The more value something provides, the more "votes" it will get. People who still continue to work will have significant excess potential productive value, that is CAPITAL. The will want to put that captial to use to increase productive capacity in society. As a demand is met, fewer votes will flow to those goods producers or service providers that have met demand. This will provide the opportunity for buisnesses to produce new goods or new services, and they will continue to attract capital investment until demand is satiated. This is the beauty of the market system. The WORST thing that can be present in such a system is information distortion, because it invalidates the judgements of all the actors within the system. Garbage-IN, Garbage-Out. Keep the picture as ACCURATE as possible, and clear off the veils and distortions, and people will make wise decisions BECAUSE the are INCENTIVEZED to do so. THAT, is THE GENIUS of a market, a democratic process of judging what society values and in judging what is valuable to society.

I think your wife is an exception to the rule. I think a lot of bright people would just spend all their time enjoying life if they didn't have the pressure of putting food on the table.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I'm not saying non-creative people are failures, just that we're seeing more and more stratification into the creative, self-motivated "haves" and the non-creative "have nots." I see both sides as an engineer and a pastor/rabbi (long story). It used to be a non-creative person could make a good living just doing the same thing day after day, not so much anymore.

Well said.

In prosperous times, most members of the pack can thrive, just doing a half-hearted job at "what everyone else" is doing.

In really tough times, many members of the pack risk extinction. The more flexible, persistent, creative ones have a better shot at finding a workable solution.

Whether a person is one of the creative ones or not is perhaps not an absolute quality, but instead it may be relative to the stress applied. All materials bend before they break; some bend further and endure greater loads before breaking.

A key problem for The Powers That Be which such conspiracy theory wackos as myself hypothecate is how to affect the changes they seek (or consider inevitable) without breaking the masses in such a way that they become too difficult to manage.

Most people, most of the time, are not all that creative, especially in essential life choices. That is, most people are not prepared to make really major changes in their life on their own "self-directed." Rather they require quite a bit of guidance, mentoring, example setting or other path setting.

I cannot tell if is due to some life cycle change in myself (perhaps I am going through some cynical period in my old age) or due to genuine changes in the world at large ... I only get to live once and it is difficult to conduct double-blind reproducible studies under such limiting circumstances. However it seems to me that we humans are at greater risk of the sort of large scale dramatic changes that could put many of us at risk than we have been at anytime since World War II.

[c1ue]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

My wife works in a book warehouse. She volunteers between 10-30 hours a week on an irregular basis. She gets "paid" for her time in book vouchers that she can use to purchase books from the place that she volunteers at.

The volunteer activities your wife undertakes are admirable, but are only possible because of the high pay you enjoy.

If you were say, a merchant sailor or a middle school teacher - it is highly unlikely your wife would have the luxury of performing such activities as opposed to working for a wage.

And is in fact either of the above 2 activities any less honorable or contributive to society than your work?

Fast forward 10 years - after the iTulip 100% inflation and the collapse of the state/local/municipal funding pyramids: will the policemen, the utilities administrators, the firemen, the paramedics, the garbagemen, etc etc who by that time will be back to the position they were collectively in during the mid 70s - will their contribution in turn also be worth less than an Air Force trainer, or an Air Force kitchen cook for that matter?

The point of bringing the FIRE economy back under control is so that all of the many varied aspects of society can have a fair shake in achieving a modicum of financial success and security while still contributing their parts to the whole.

As opposed to being various forms of FIRE oligarch servitors.

[ggirod]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

My suggestion to you is to demonstrate your altruism by finding a soup kitchen near you and volunteering for the afternoon. You might find a better appreciation for how difficult the non-creative "left behind" members of society are faring. Maybe you can give them some creative ideas for getting involved in Open Source programming.

Pete, I split my time between a rural poverty area and the Detroit area so please don't assume I don't understand. Though I don't work in a soup kitchen I do personally work to help poor people, most recently through micro-loans and other assistance to get a workable business going. Sometimes it is $30 to get baby formula for a young mother....

First of all, don't assume Open Source software is the only pursuit. Gaining competence in urban gardening, raising chickens, fixing stuff around the home, and multitudes of other skills are most appropriate, and should be valued no more or less than software. Flint is razing blighted areas and making them into community gardens. Leaders arise from that "hopeless" community to make it happen and help their neighbors. Sharing is teaching and helping. The operative thing is increasing independence for the person at whatever level they are right now. The maker movement and other sharing movements are starting to attack the problem instead of lamenting the sorry state of affairs - which is sorry indeed.

I think that the 20 million, more or less, unemployed, when they discover that their condition is permanent, will need something to help them thrive. Even if there were money to help them (there isn't) it would not get allocated to the purpose so they are out of luck. Yes, soup kitchens are necessary, of course. But, measures like that go only so far. The economy that dumped them where they are now will do precisely nothing to help them. All the government money flitting about Wall Street, were any of it to find its way to Main Street, would be so profoundly inflationary as to take the whole thing down. The new economic system has all the cash flitting about the wealthy who take a chunk every time through the circuit, and all of he rest of the people living hand to mouth. All of the condescending anecdotes about urban blight and disgusting crime do nothing but increase the distance between people. The vast majority of poor are honest. Getting in and getting hands dirty, at all levels of skill is what is needed.

By the way, my latest project is to put together and donate a robust computer system for use by my rural neighbors who have to interact with government and other systems and have no means to do it. I have agreement in principle to get a free room to teach them basic computer skills. I am working on a place for the system and connectivity. I am pretty sure I will get them sooner or later. If the people had the money to be able to travel 30 miles to civilization they probably wouldn't need to get online for help. As it is, poverty and isolation is a potent one-two punch for the poor. Once started, I will bet some teens will step up to support grizzled old timers using the system - especially when they figure out that maybe a job awaits their skills.

[ggirod]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

C1ue - I have to say I agree with many of your statements in this discussion. However, I don't agree with

The volunteer activities your wife undertakes are admirable, but are only possible because of the high pay you enjoy.

If you were say, a merchant sailor or a middle school teacher - it is highly unlikely your wife would have the luxury of performing such activities as opposed to working for a wage.

The ranks of volunteer organizations are filled mostly by the working class who understand well what it means to give and receive help from somebody. The boards are often the rich, chosen for their influence and power, but used book operations and the like are frequently teachers and other workers doing so part time. Ditto for many other groups. Habitat, often organized with working voluneers, is an ideal means to learn handyman skills while helping others. So, it is not only the fortunate who give. Some whom we might label poor see themselves properly as fortunate and share what they have.

[c1ue]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The ranks of volunteer organizations are filled mostly by the working class who understand well what it means to give and receive help from somebody. The boards are often the rich, chosen for their influence and power, but used book operations and the like are frequently teachers and other workers doing so part time. Ditto for many other groups. Habitat, often organized with working voluneers, is an ideal means to learn handyman skills while helping others. So, it is not only the fortunate who give. Some whom we might label poor see themselves properly as fortunate and share what they have.

Again, I agree fully that it isn't just rich people who volunteer.

But I reiterate: if one wage earner is making $30K a year (i.e. a young teacher), the other wage earner isn't going to have much slack to be volunteering - especially if they have kids.

[jtabeb]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

"But I reiterate: if one wage earner is making $30K a year (i.e. a young teacher), the other wage earner isn't going to have much slack to be volunteering - especially if they have kids."

They would it they recieved monetary compensation for their time and effort.

Just imagine if we lived in a world where you could earn a pay check by volunteering at a charity or a school. You could literally be doing things to improve your local comunity and get paid for the effort. How fantastic would that be. Beats the hell out out any grant program, because the funds are allocated by the free market, not through some arbitrary process (sure, you could call paid volunteer work arbitriaty, but then the definition would apply to regular "work" too. You have to draw a line somewhere).

Point is YOU PROVIDE AN INCENTIVE for community involvemnt with paid vounteer work. YOU JUST DON'T GET that kind of ownership with the grant process. I'm talking buy-in on a very personal level here, with results that percolate UP through the community vs. Grants that trickle down.

Gordon Gekko has it right in at least one respect. Greed works (he missed the part about it being capable of extreme good or extreme evil). In this case, I'm saying GREED WOULD WORK to the benefit of the individual AND the comunity, and it would do it in a FAR MORE efficient process than any grant program could ever hope to acheive.

Just Do it (make your community a better place) AND Get paid for your effort (reward honest hard work with honest pay).

The down side?

People might get so addicted to the feeling to give to others that we might have too much surplus and we would have to find a way to share that surplus with the rest of the world (Paid Peace-Corps stints anyone?).

The possibilities are INCREADIBLE, you just have to dare to dream how it could all be accomplished.

Capitalism can be used to benefit or retard the evolution and development of humankind. (and it is the best economic system to move the world forward, with a few tweaks from Itulip, of course). The point is we have something that works, has worked, and continue to work, as long as we are brave enough to fix what's wrong. Who knows where it will eventually take us. All I know is that it will be a better place as long as we can keep improving the system, as long as we can "keep moving forward" as it were.

(I appologize for the frequent reference to Disney Movies, I have three children under the age of 11, give me a break, Ok?)

V/R

JT

[c1ue]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

Just imagine if we lived in a world where you could earn a pay check by volunteering at a charity or a school.

Uh, you do see the contradiction here don't you?

Again, I have no issue with volunteering - I do think it is a noteworthy contribution.

But again, the denominator issues (FIRE and impact on labor costs, on health care costs, etc etc) reduce the 'surplus' available for other things.

Much as FIRE reduced the 'surplus' labor supply in the form of women staying at home - hence the 'Two Income Trap'.

No matter how much civic pride/spirit you have, you cannot roll these FIRE effects back on an individual basis. It requires government ... or anarchy.

[jtabeb]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The difference is A JOB is on the terms set forth by an employer. "Volunteer work" as I call it, is on the terms of the volunteer. The Volunteer says "when", "how long", and "how much" as opposed to traditional work.

"No matter how much civic pride/spirit you have, you cannot roll these FIRE effects back on an individual basis. It requires government ... or anarchy."

I cast my lot with Noam Chomsky's. I would prefer we do it on our own, failing that government, failing that, Anarchy. HOPEFULLY, TPTB realize that anarchy endangers them as much as it endangers the general populace (on can hope at least).
,
I think people the world over would prefer an EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH rather than the revolutionary approach, so maybe what we need is a revolutionary evolution or perhaps a evolutionary revolution.

I myself hang my hopes on the Revolutionary Evolution.

http://revolutionaryevolution.com/

[c1ue]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The difference is A JOB is on the terms set forth by an employer. "Volunteer work" as I call it, is on the terms of the volunteer. The Volunteer says "when", "how long", and "how much" as opposed to traditional work.

Sounds like a political lobbyist or a consultant to me.

As someone who has dealt a lot with workers who say 'when', 'how long', and 'how much' at their whim in the field of home care for seniors and now with mobile startup, my experience has been that this is primarily an exercise in finding the few that are actually reliable.

The rest are a net negative contribution both individually and collectively.

[Kcim67]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blo...786#more-10786