Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

[blazespinnaker]

For those that are not sailors , it is hard to believe that we are delaying once again based on the advice of Commander's Weather. It may even be hard to believe by those that are sailors......... but it's true. When Commander's runs the numbers they say we are much better positioned if we leave after the front goes through on early Mon Morning and we get that NW wind we have been waiting for.

http://www.sailblogs.com/member/aisl...ID=31587&c=653


Lately I've been considering a crossing and one of the things I've been researching about are better approaches to charting weather during the trip. One thing I've found is commandersweather.com .. a great little service that for $69 you can get an email for them to help you navigate through and around weather that can make or break your crossing. They keep track of you as well and if they see something, they will let you know as well.

This weather routing service is pretty impressive and comes highly recommended. The folks are all masters/PHds in meteorology and have quite a track record. Well worth the price from what I've read.

What's the connection to iTulip? It's this sort of thing I see more and more and it means unemployment, deflation, and more.

For example, check out iTunes. High quality software is being given away for almost near free. A big part of this is because you have the best engineers from all around the world competing to deliver products to you in an open marketplace.

Microsoft and Google are opening their app stores as well. Pretty soon, all software will be delivered this way .. and I can tell you, innovation is going UP and prices are going *down* very rapidly. Hell, Google gives the OS away for free.

Not only does this lead to deflation, it also leads to a certain amount of unemployment. Not so bad right now as these markets are expanding, but once they are done and they start consolidating? What's going to happen? These are high end software engineers writing this stuff. These are the guys that are supposed to be the ones with the jobs.

They refer to this as Cognitive Surplus. Not do we have over capacity in the manufacturing sector, it's happening to the knowledge worker as well. It's leading to things like Open Source, Wikipedias, and free blogs that give away content that used to charge a very pretty penny. Newspaper like to make you thing the blogs suck, but trust me, they don't. I can get the economist free but I don't even bother! I can find much more timely, focused, and relevant analysis online.

Check out sailblogs.com where I found out about commander's weather. This stuff used to be highly sought after literature you'd find in the bookstores. Now.. there is so much more content (and damn good content, photos, real stories, everything) and it's all free!

Also, have you seen youtube EDU? We're becoming very close to the day when pretty much an entire university worth of lectures is all online. I'm sure there are bright kids out there, prodigies, that are skipping through entire years of university before even applying. And why not? What's the point of going to lectures now? If a prof says something, you can't hit the pause button and rewind him. You can't slow or speed the lecture up. And there are plenty of great websites online you can go and ask questions about math or whatever your subject is if you need a tutorial of some kind.

The only thing you're missing out on is the facetime with future management types. (Certainly not with the geeks/nerds, because they're all online anyways)

But other than that .. the price of a university education .. going to zero.

Where is this all heading?

If not only manufacturing is getting outsourced and automated but even ideas are becoming free, who gets paid? And for what?


I don't think Communism is the answer, but I'm not so sure austerity is either.

[ggirod]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The creation of free commons is probably one means by which humanity will extract itself from this quagmire. Linux enables freelance developers to create new products and sell (yes, sell) them for custom uses. Like the village square, where sheep could be grazed, it is an asset for humanity. In addition to the stereotypical geek motivation of employing technical prowess, there is another drive; that of voluntarily contributing some things to the public good while enjoying the benefits of others' contributions.

If iTulip readers get a chance they should visit Maker Faires in various locations. At these events, people who carried the "open source" principle to making things share ideas with and inspire creativity in the visitors. The whole idea is that by sharing their knowledge the whole society benefits. Usually featured at such events are home-brew machines such as three and more axis milling machines to make parts, 3-D printers to take a drawing and produce a part, solar/alternative energy systems for exploitation by common folk, and myriad other things. If you wish to buy their product, many will happily sell it. If not, they will just as happily show you the resources to do it yourself.

Were the creators of these things to work for most traditional companies (excluding some people at IBM and other contributors to open source) their work would mostly not lead to creative output such as they make for free. In fact, many, if not most, have full time jobs and create in off hours.

I wish I had a crystal ball to see the future. I think there is a place for a new form of social organization which is that of voluntary contribution and sharing. It is likely the one form of globalization that is not harmful to the individual since everyone benefits from the proceeds. I hope that the common assets will begin to grow by compounding; i.e. growth accelerates as people use common intellectual assets to make many more new assets, sharing as they go along. The continuing economic collapse may assist in the widespread adoption of the voluntary shared commons ethic as more people have more time to contribute to the shared good.

When you consider the overhead extracted by the financial system along with its glaring misdirection of wealth into non-productive and destructive activities, maybe a bunch of people who forgo all that nonsense have the key to the future. One can only hope.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

Yes, perhaps the real problem here is our current economic system is just not making sense any more.

[RebbePete]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I wish I had a crystal ball to see the future. I think there is a place for a new form of social organization which is that of voluntary contribution and sharing. It is likely the one form of globalization that is not harmful to the individual since everyone benefits from the proceeds. I hope that the common assets will begin to grow by compounding; i.e. growth accelerates as people use common intellectual assets to make many more new assets, sharing as they go along. The continuing economic collapse may assist in the widespread adoption of the voluntary shared commons ethic as more people have more time to contribute to the shared good.

I think you need to get out more. You sound like the kind of person that spends all his time with highly motivated, creative people. Not everyone is like that. In my experience, even in the engineering profession, maybe 5% even of highly educated engineers are altruistic, creative thinkers. The rest just come to work to get their paycheck.

Then there are the others in society that are of a completely different mindset. In Baltimore city, near where I live, a group of children stoned a puppy to death. Another group set a mature dog on fire. I just heard on the news this morning that a bright young athlete was shot in the back because someone wanted his cell phone. A retired marine, who worked with the youth in the area, was murdered, shot multiple times by a (possibly drunken) off-duty cop because the former marine touched his date inappropriately. A good friend of mine, still living in the projects, tries very hard to talk to young people, to get them off the street. Someone tried to rob him and kicked him hard enough in the face to fracture his cheekbone. He's a dialysis patient and couldn't punch out a ten year old. Fortunately, he will recover. The stories go on and on.

So, in this utopian paridise of yours, what will those who have little to no creative ability, even the predators that desire to pillage and destroy what others have created, find to do with themselves? Will we put them "on the dole" where they have nothing productive to do but sit and cause trouble (which is, in effect, what's going on in some large cities now)?

Go teach in an inner city school for a while and see how your "voluntary contibution and sharing" works out. Communism failed because the vast majority of people aren't altruistic and caring, and, in that system, the brutal and selfish siezed control and took all the proceeds of society for themselves and their friends. That will happen anytime power is concentrated, since the powerful grab even more power to themselves. The United States has survived so long since the founders understood that men are inherently selfish, and checks and balances needed to be instituted, since you can't trust anyone.

I get tired of reading this Marxist crap on iTulip. Socialism/communism has never worked, and never will work, since mankind isn't like that. The only time we have come close to that level is when the society has been very close to God's principles (no, not zealous for some cause or other, I mean real, genuine Christianity, of sacrificing for the love of others). Those times have been very few and far between, certainly not today.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

ggirod said "voluntary" sharing. communism / marxism / socialism is government imposed sharing.

Capitalism is all well and good, but what if nobody wants to buy what you can you produce?

What if nobody wants to work to buy the cool car or nice toy you make? What if being able to eat, wear clothes, and live in a house of some sort is more than enough?

What if we don't need very many people to make that happen?

Capitalism is built on the idea that we will consume ever more. I agree our appetite for consumption is *unlimited* but our desire to work to consume is not.

[Master Shake]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

Well said, Pete. I emigrated from B'more to Carroll County 13 years ago and know of which you speak.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

Baltimore is a perfect example of what we're talking about. It's a city of people who have no economic role in this world. i suppose we could set up chinese like factories for them to work at, but by the time that rolls around, we'll probably have robots which can do all the work that they can do.

[c1ue]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

1) Microsoft may open its app store, but it doesn't give away its OS for free. Hell it doesn't even support older OS's after 2 years or so in order to force people to upgrade.

2) Google's Android movement is anythng but altruistic.

It only seems open compared to Apple/iOs.

For example, I had to create a gmail account in order to register the G1 I bought for platform testing purposes. Similarly Skype is not available on Android phones - only Google Voice or a few small, paid VOIP apps.

3) Education via video is great, but primarily applies to social sciences. How does an engineer/scientist to be learn only via talking?

Where do these aspiring types access the cutting edge computers, hardware, laboratories, and what not to actually hone their hands-on capabilities? For that matter how do vocations get learned without equipment or supervision?

One of my first EE labs for power involved 200 ampere currents.

The arcing of electricity from the cable in my hands 6 feet across air to the power board when my lab mate f***ed up and didn't check that the power was off was an instructional experience for all concerned.

Similarly videos don't permit questions or conversations.

It is access to experienced, knowledgeable, and intelligent minds as much as theories spoken out loud which promotes the learning process.

Similarly a lot of the 'library' based blabberty blah which the bio-engineering side is hyping is primarily trying to build in a Microsoft type monopoly for a burgeoning industry.

[vinoveri]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

thanks for the link blaze.

I was telling my thirteen yr old daugher last week that so much instructional content is online that with hard work and drive, one could teach themselves so much that even 10 years ago would be very challenging if not virutally impossible. She's a pretty good piano player now after 5-6 yrs of lessons, and I suggested she try an old cheap clarinet I had and see if she could teach herself. After a few hours of you-tube "how to play the clarinet" lessons, a few new reeds and music book I bought her, she is playing simple pieces and loving it.

Yes, there are deficiciencies ,e g. absent real time and personal instructor feedback, and sure, one is not going to be learning neuro-surgery, but I think this can only be a good thing.

[flintlock]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I think you need to get out more. You sound like the kind of person that spends all his time with highly motivated, creative people. Not everyone is like that. In my experience, even in the engineering profession, maybe 5% even of highly educated engineers are altruistic, creative thinkers. The rest just come to work to get their paycheck.

Then there are the others in society that are of a completely different mindset. In Baltimore city, near where I live, a group of children stoned a puppy to death. Another group set a mature dog on fire. I just heard on the news this morning that a bright young athlete was shot in the back because someone wanted his cell phone. A retired marine, who worked with the youth in the area, was murdered, shot multiple times by a (possibly drunken) off-duty cop because the former marine touched his date inappropriately. A good friend of mine, still living in the projects, tries very hard to talk to young people, to get them off the street. Someone tried to rob him and kicked him hard enough in the face to fracture his cheekbone. He's a dialysis patient and couldn't punch out a ten year old. Fortunately, he will recover. The stories go on and on.

So, in this utopian paridise of yours, what will those who have little to no creative ability, even the predators that desire to pillage and destroy what others have created, find to do with themselves? Will we put them "on the dole" where they have nothing productive to do but sit and cause trouble (which is, in effect, what's going on in some large cities now)?

Go teach in an inner city school for a while and see how your "voluntary contibution and sharing" works out. Communism failed because the vast majority of people aren't altruistic and caring, and, in that system, the brutal and selfish siezed control and took all the proceeds of society for themselves and their friends. That will happen anytime power is concentrated, since the powerful grab even more power to themselves. The United States has survived so long since the founders understood that men are inherently selfish, and checks and balances needed to be instituted, since you can't trust anyone.

I get tired of reading this Marxist crap on iTulip. Socialism/communism has never worked, and never will work, since mankind isn't like that. The only time we have come close to that level is when the society has been very close to God's principles (no, not zealous for some cause or other, I mean real, genuine Christianity, of sacrificing for the love of others). Those times have been very few and far between, certainly not today.

Nice post, thanks!

[flintlock]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

thanks for the link blaze.

I was telling my thirteen yr old daugher last week that so much instructional content is online that with hard work and drive, one could teach themselves so much that even 10 years ago would be very challenging if not virutally impossible. She's a pretty good piano player now after 5-6 yrs of lessons, and I suggested she try an old cheap clarinet I had and see if she could teach herself. After a few hours of you-tube "how to play the clarinet" lessons, a few new reeds and music book I bought her, she is playing simple pieces and loving it.

Yes, there are deficiciencies ,e g. absent real time and personal instructor feedback, and sure, one is not going to be learning neuro-surgery, but I think this can only be a good thing.

Exactly. I learn stuff all the time off the internet that people used to have to pay someone to teach them, or buy a book to learn. Need to learn how to disassemble almost any firearm made? Youtube will have a video on it. There is no excuse these days for anyone with internet service to plead ignorance on almost any subject.

[cjppjc]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The only time we have come close to that level is when the society has been very close to God's principles (no, not zealous for some cause or other, I mean real, genuine Christianity, of sacrificing for the love of others). Those times have been very few and far between, certainly not today.

Small groups are the key, irrespective of the times or places.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

The one thing I take away form this thread is the example of commandersweather.com.

In effect, it is a subscription model bespoke personalized intelligence service.....in some ways similiar to iTulip.

I see such laser focused, lean and niche intelligence services as the future of personalized "news"......with the ones adding the most value able to charge the highest subscription fees balanced against a ruthlessly short attention span audience that will instantly disappear if performance is repeatedly poor.

Just my 0.02c

[metalman]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

I get tired of reading this Marxist crap on iTulip. Socialism/communism has never worked, and never will work, since mankind isn't like that.

not marxist... left coast techno-utopian. look how it's doing for them now.

[jtabeb]

Re: Commander's Weather, iTunes, deflation, Cognitive Surplus, and Unemployment

Guaranteed income Baby! (For all) But require people to pay for government service that they consume. You can make wise choices as a consumer or poor choices, But the choice is yours to make. That is the essence of freedom.

Maintains the creative drive of capitalism with an appreciation for the human condition. All humans have equal rights, but not all humans are capable of the same things. We have to reward those that CAN DO, and take care of those that can't do as humanely as our technology and resources allow. Which, given the state of existing technology and it's near exponential rate of progress, is the most utopian like lifestyle that any human has ever seen.

My IPhone 4 is faster, more capable and has more memory AND better software than the fastest computer that I had ever used in college 13 years ago. (And at 1/100th the cost). Talk about "good" deflation.