War with Iran.......1st Blood?

[Mega]

"Operation Drumbeat"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...t/10511420.stm

Mike

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

There are likely many covert operations going on within the borders of Iran as well.

[don]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

Moon has an analysis of some of the military parameters of a US-backed Israeli strike.

The anatomy of an attack on Iran
By David Moon
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LG01Ak01.html

I'm curious what the itulip readership thinks are the reasons for the next war in the ME.

[Ghent12]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

Well we already fought one war because we thought the target nation was developing or had weapons of mass destruction. Being green is trendy and fashionable even if it is bad for the environment, so why not just recycle that reason?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

Moon has an analysis of some of the military parameters of a US-backed Israeli strike.

The anatomy of an attack on Iran
By David Moon
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LG01Ak01.html

I'm curious what the itulip readership thinks are the reasons for the next war in the ME.

Personally, I don't see an overt conventional war in the Middle East on the horizon.

I think Iran has played it's hand exceptionally well......if it wasn't for their leadership always shooting from the lip and the question of who will actually control their nuclear weapons once developed I'd consider Iran to be in the lead for the Geopolitical World Cup....closely followed by that moonbat Quaddafi.....HE should be on TV giving leadership, risk management, and strategic planning lessons, not Donald Trump

The optimist in me says we will see continued insurgencies, short-sharp occasional conventional attacks(likely by Israel), and asymmetric warfare used(likely by Israeli/US opponents).

The pessimist in me says we could see the implosion/insurrection of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and/or Syria to extremists like Muslim Brotherhood who have been effectively quashed but not extinguished for decades.

Personally I'm far more concerned about conflict potential in the Near East/Central Asia, starting with Iran's neighbour Pakistan.....I keep going back to a "solution" that would possibly "solve" things from a US perspective for possibly another 1-2 generations:

A brewing conflict between Pakistan and India where the US, instead of again de-escalating the conflict(as has happened all too frequently in the recent past), this time passively encourages it via benign neglect to blossom into a regional black hole that quickly leaves India no choice but to drag China(Pakistan's long-time ally) into it.

Pakistan's perpetual support of terrorism in India is the awkward fart in the room. India, thus far, has taken the moral high road thus far with it's Parliament nearly massacred, it's trains bombed, and residents of Mumbai slaughtered.....how long can they continue to restrain from a decisive military response upon future attacks?

The US could easily declare a cordon sanitaire of the region(keep conflict to Pakistan/India/China or face complete destruction) via it's overwhelming conventional power projection, it's massive and modern nuclear deterrant, and it's fast growing and somewhat mobile ballistic missile defense capabilities which easily outclass by several generations the combined conventional/nuclear capabilities of all participants.....with an endstate of Pakistan ceasing to exist as a single sovereign state, and India/China knocked WAY off their economic/political/military/energy demand power trajectory for a generation or two with their respective GDPs chopped by a full 1/3 or more and under considerable pressure moving forward.

This would improve the chances of the US continuing to dominate the global economically, militarily, and politically by using it's military which is currently at it's zenith in terms of global power projection and overmatch against all combined and likely opponents....do you use REAL power while you have it or watch it slowly attrit?

Last chance for a "physical reboot" that could leave the US as relatively immune as WWII....in position to reap the unopposed rewards in the aftermath.

At the same time the US could begin to stick the boot in to the aftermath of Chindia in regards to US external debt renegotiation via it's far greater leverage post conflict with a US led Bretton Woods Redux and a simultaneous national effort to reindustrialise to further hammer-down Chindia, as well as bring to heel uppity oil producers by completely crippling Near East, Central Asian energy demand and growing relative US global dominance.

Painful US domestic reform could be made very quickly under the guise of national security, global crisis management, and blaming Chindia.....while enjoying the tailwind of cheaper energy again.

I do not think this will actually happen....as I assume ethical and moral leadership will prevail eventually......but from a US centric perspective it's a medium-ish risk "easy way out" with a potentially VERY high reward.

While it's probably extremely low probability(like Lotto winning number low) outcome doomer porn, I would be surprised if it hasn't been war-gamed with countless other scenarios.

Nations don't have friends or even allies, they have national and mutual interests.

From a strictly clinical and selfish standpoint, I believe that under the right circumstances, the US would be foolish to de-escalate Pakistani/Indian/ and ultimately Chinese tensions.....and wise to stoke them then decisively contain them.

While I think it's possible Israel could attack Iran, likely with tacit approval or even overt support from the US...I don't think it's necessarily likely.....Osirak was a bold, necessarily, medium risk, very high reward operation......Iran is an entirely different and more difficult decentralized and hardened kettle of fish......it would take some seriously outside the square thinking, VERY bold planning, and flawless execution to knock back Iran to any worthwhile degree.......my fear is we may find ourselves looking in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Just my Machiavellian 0.02c

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

Just my Machiavellian 0.02c

Machiavelli would be proud.

[oddlots]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

A medal's in order.

Wouldn't it be better to just implode their economies by selling them derivatives. Swaps, CDOs and such. Or is that old hat?

Just kidding with the outrage.

I'm dead sure it's been war-gamed.

God help us.

[pksubs]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

Pakistan's perpetual support of terrorism in India is the awkward fart in the room. India, thus far, has taken the moral high road thus far with it's Parliament nearly massacred, it's trains bombed, and residents of Mumbai slaughtered.....how long can they continue to restrain from a decisive military response upon future attacks?

India will not respond to terrorism with a declaration of war on Pakistan, because it can't - it doesn't have the conventional military power to overrun Pakistan or defeat it. In 1971, the Indian army won a decisive victory over Pakistan and created the state of Bangladesh(which was previously known as East Pakistan). But that was because the Bangladeshis wanted out, and Pakistan supply lines were untenable from the Arabian sea > Indian ocean > Bay of Bengal.

As far as China goes, I see very little reason for them to fall into the war trap, they understand the costs only too well. if they made war, I'd expect the target to be Siberia with it's oil and mineral wealth, low population. There's not much to gain by warring with India and taking on the responsibility of managing another billion people, with close to zero oil and minerals!

my $0.02..

[iyamwutiam]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

India will not respond to terrorism with a declaration of war on Pakistan, because it can't - it doesn't have the conventional military power to overrun Pakistan or defeat it. In 1971, the Indian army won a decisive victory over Pakistan and created the state of Bangladesh(which was previously known as East Pakistan). But that was because the Bangladeshis wanted out, and Pakistan supply lines were untenable from the Arabian sea > Indian ocean > Bay of Bengal.

As far as China goes, I see very little reason for them to fall into the war trap, they understand the costs only too well. if they made war, I'd expect the target to be Siberia with it's oil and mineral wealth, low population. There's not much to gain by warring with India and taking on the responsibility of managing another billion people, with close to zero oil and minerals!

my $0.02..

Pakistan is used to the crack/cocaine of the US (borrowing billions for US fighter plances and equipments) which like their previously stooge ally Iran deiscovered is useless when the US decides not to supply them spare parts. This is in essence the entire Pakistan military and can easily be proven when you see the succession of Paki generals who are essentially appendages of America's policy organ. To think that India does NOT have the military capababilty to demolish Pakistan is taking Homerism to the extreme. Were it not for unequivocal support of the divide and rule doctrine (meaning active support by the US) -Pakistan would not be the issue it is today.

In some sense -I applaud India's hands off approach to Pakistan and tolerating the terrorist incidents which are fully abetted by the US. After 20 years we can see that being full blooded stooges for the American empire does not result in 'miracles' like South Korea. Pakistan is dissolving into factions and economic disparity that has brought about the slumbering despair and awakened it into a true movement for national independence. While it may be seen wrongly as a return to fundamentalism - it is incorrect to assume this ( due mainly because for the past decades of junta pilfering of the Pakistani people by the Pakistani people under direction of its greatest ally (see the South American experience)). Religion was an acceptable refuge tolerated and encouraged by military despots - and the preferred avenue set up for dissent. So it should be NO surprise fundamentalism is only a distorted prism for decades of dissent and social inequity.

The irony is that what appeared to be a supplier induced phenomena placed to enrich themselves (military and political repression) the long term costs of continuing to maintain this cyclic siphoning of funds from the people to the elite has the ultimate consequence of ending up to be SO expensive that indebtedness and a total devastation of infra-structure stare such countries in the face (Columbia being aother prima facie example).

Ultimately -we have seen a tremendous exodus of Pakistanis (being removed from their misery -finding peverse pleasure in being ultranationalistic for a country they irrevocably fled -talk about irony here). India has followed the same path of US sycophancy that Pakistan did and no doubt -they are also facing the same fragmentation that the NorthWest frontier is -which I believe is long over due. India must crumble under the weight of its oppression of the tribals and knowingly feeding the great divide by callously allowing its (lesser) citizens to under go decades if not centuries of torment. I do see India exploding into a fractious war from with in and ultimately the whole region going up in flames.

[don]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

Gettin' Ready....

[lakedaemonian]

Re: War with Iran.......1st Blood?

India will not respond to terrorism with a declaration of war on Pakistan, because it can't - it doesn't have the conventional military power to overrun Pakistan or defeat it. In 1971, the Indian army won a decisive victory over Pakistan and created the state of Bangladesh(which was previously known as East Pakistan). But that was because the Bangladeshis wanted out, and Pakistan supply lines were untenable from the Arabian sea > Indian ocean > Bay of Bengal.

As far as China goes, I see very little reason for them to fall into the war trap, they understand the costs only too well. if they made war, I'd expect the target to be Siberia with it's oil and mineral wealth, low population. There's not much to gain by warring with India and taking on the responsibility of managing another billion people, with close to zero oil and minerals!

my $0.02..

India's military decidedly overmatches Pakistan's...both conventionally and unconventionally.

Committed and anticipated military procurement is much like the Soviet Union and the US in the late 80's, and North Korea/South Korea of recent years.

Pakistan has been losing ground economically and militarily to India for some time.

India is also in the middle of implementing a drastic change to it's military doctrine, referred to as cold start.

India is reorienting it's military to prepare for instant(meaning far shorter mobilization) and offensive operations....a bold shift from previous defensive oriented doctrine.......which means the time from a terrorist spark until a raging fire of retaliatory response is getting shorter...basically events accelerating faster than Pakistan's, India's, China's OODA loop can respond.

I do not believe India's nor China's leadership want a conflict, and they would do much to avoid it......but they are not the only players in the game, and circumstances can quickly accelerate out of control resulting in conflict escalation exceeding the speed of diplomacy...especially if the US conveniently created a diplomatic void by simply staying on the Machiavellian sidelines.

Just my 0.02c