Tweet
I recently posted this in "Select" Janzen commentaries. I thought others may also like to see the coincidence or comment on this.
Lorimer Wilson Posted this in Sep 1st, 2009 last year and I see a lot of pure coincidence between Nikkei and S&P and wondering about the how their respective peak and trough coincided. So far it has followed this script. If so we should start eeing the fall from Dec 2010 for S&P*DXY.
FYI : Just my opinion
I am going to go against the common theme here on pure hunch and do a "lukester".
I think the S&P bounce is not over. it can go up further till Nov 2010 mid election.
There is a good chance I am wrong compared to EJ's research but I cannot see FED doing reverse repo's or draining money from the system.
Originally Posted by zoog 
That may turn out to be the "Second Bounce" rather than a continuation of the first one.
Hmm... slightly different since this is in terms of DXY and not CPI(Inflation).
So in DXY terms, the bounce had been more than nominal.(again I should not use nominal or real when
using DXY because it is just a measure of how USD is falling relative to EUR,JPY...)
So in DXY terms, he is saying we will see jump in DXY * SPX, which can rise upto 70% of last peak in Sep 8th, 2000(approx ~ 170605)
So if DXY goes to 100 then, SPX can go to 1200 around Dec 2010.
Lorimer Wilson Posted this in Sep 1st, 2009 last year and I see a lot of pure coincidence between Nikkei and S&P and wondering about the how their respective peak and trough coincided. So far it has followed this script. If so we should start eeing the fall from Dec 2010 for S&P*DXY.
Originally posted by Lorimer Wilson
The chart below shows the Nikkei in U.S. dollars compared to the S&P 500. The S&P 500 in DXY terms has been rebased to the same peak as in Japan, except 117 months (9.75 years) later. If this pattern repeats, there is potential for 40% upside over the next 3-4 months.
Assuming a relationship similar to what Japan went through, the S&P 500 in DXY terms could well rise another 40% pretty much from now until mid-December 2010. Importantly, this is in DXY terms, so if the U.S. dollar were to rally 20% and the S&P 500 17% (as it’s multiplied), that would do it. If the market were to only rally to the lower trend line in the... chart, then the total upside would be 33%, split between the U.S. dollar and the equity market.
Assuming a relationship similar to what Japan went through, the S&P 500 in DXY terms could well rise another 40% pretty much from now until mid-December 2010. Importantly, this is in DXY terms, so if the U.S. dollar were to rally 20% and the S&P 500 17% (as it’s multiplied), that would do it. If the market were to only rally to the lower trend line in the... chart, then the total upside would be 33%, split between the U.S. dollar and the equity market.
FYI : Just my opinion
I am going to go against the common theme here on pure hunch and do a "lukester".
I think the S&P bounce is not over. it can go up further till Nov 2010 mid election.
There is a good chance I am wrong compared to EJ's research but I cannot see FED doing reverse repo's or draining money from the system.
Originally Posted by zoog That may turn out to be the "Second Bounce" rather than a continuation of the first one.
Hmm... slightly different since this is in terms of DXY and not CPI(Inflation).
So in DXY terms, the bounce had been more than nominal.(again I should not use nominal or real when
using DXY because it is just a measure of how USD is falling relative to EUR,JPY...)
So in DXY terms, he is saying we will see jump in DXY * SPX, which can rise upto 70% of last peak in Sep 8th, 2000(approx ~ 170605)
So if DXY goes to 100 then, SPX can go to 1200 around Dec 2010.
Comment