BP is getting K I L L E D

[touchring]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Buffet's account got mangled during 08

Yes, but in the long run he gains. We've talking about long term.

[Minion]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Yes, but in the long run he gains. We've talking about long term.

Greetings,

Even Buffet knows when to buy. It isn't when future income, liabilities, and brand recognition are uncertain.

[touchring]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Greetings,

Even Buffet knows when to buy. It isn't when future income, liabilities, and brand recognition are uncertain.

Well, definitely, but the trick is to buy before Buffett and likes buy, after he buys, the price will no longer be the same.

I think future income and brand recognition isn't an issue, if the US doesn't want BP's oil, China will want and once China gets hold of the oil assets, they will all come under China's state oil company.

China will make more than 15 million cars this year, so in just 5 years, the number of automobiles in China will exceed 100 million. Even at a conservative 35 gallons average per car per month, this translates to 3.5 billion gallons a month, 4 million barrels a day.

And this is only the 5 year projection, in 10-15 years, double that to 200 million and at least 8 million barrels a day on gasoline.

[GRG55]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

It is an awfully big company to let fail. There will be a lot of pressure to bail them out if need be, especially in the UK. It's not like the bailout precedent hasn't been set recently. The question is what the equity and debt terms look like.

Unlike banks, oil companies never get bailed out.

Unlike banks, oil companies have assets that are actually worth something more than a non-performing loan [that hasn't been written down yet].

If BP gets put under because of this blowout you can be assured that Shell, Exxon, Chevron and everyone else will never drill another offshore well [in the USA] because their Boards won't be able to allow the company to be exposed to the risk of complete corporate destruction based on a single blowout incident.

BP will survive, because everyone [and I mean everyone, including the US Government] can't afford to have BP and the rest of the offshore drilling industry go bye-bye [but that doesn't necssarily mean the existing shareholders will be left with anything].

I note that zerohedge has a post that Houston based investment bank Simmons and Co apparently has an "Overweight" recommendation on BP with a $52 price target. This would be the firm headed by the same "Simmons" that has been slagging BP relentlessly in recent weeks, claiming [among other things] that there is a leak from the blowout well coming out of the seafloor some 7 miles away from the wellhead. Once an Investment Banker, always an Investment Banker...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bp-...tock-price-sam

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

If BP gets put under because of this blowout you can be assured that Shell, Exxon, Chevron and everyone else will never drill another offshore well [in the USA] because their Boards won't be able to allow the company to be exposed to the risk of complete corporate destruction based on a single blowout incident

GRG55 -- you remind of of Hank Paulson threatening us with economic collapse if we didn't pass the $700 Billion TARP program .

[GRG55]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

GRG55 -- you remind of of Hank Paulson threatening us with economic collapse if we didn't pass the $700 Billion TARP program .

I am not trying to threaten anyone with anything. Simply pointing out the logical legal position that every other publicly traded company that is exploring for oil offshore in US waters is placed into.

[Minion]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Well, definitely, but the trick is to buy before Buffett and likes buy, after he buys, the price will no longer be the same.

I think future income and brand recognition isn't an issue, if the US doesn't want BP's oil, China will want and once China gets hold of the oil assets, they will all come under China's state oil company.

China will make more than 15 million cars this year, so in just 5 years, the number of automobiles in China will exceed 100 million. Even at a conservative 35 gallons average per car per month, this translates to 3.5 billion gallons a month, 4 million barrels a day.

And this is only the 5 year projection, in 10-15 years, double that to 200 million and at least 8 million barrels a day on gasoline.

I really think China is going to end up with some of their assets. But if you're trying to beat Buffet, look at the chart indicators. When the 5 day moving average levels off, you might be near the bottom.....

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

I am not trying to threaten anyone with anything. Simply pointing out the logical legal position that every other publicly traded company that is exploring for oil offshore in US waters is placed into.

Well, yes, of course, you personally aren't threatening anyone. Neither you nor the rest of us here, so far as I know, are in any position of power capable of such a threat.

You did remind me of that TARP threat however.

Actually, I don't think that it would be the logical legal position of other offshore oil exploration companies to abandon the Gulf if the U.S. crushed BP. It is the logical legal position of any such company to persue good profits, within some such legal risk envelope as they choose. If it was clear that BP had pushed the drilling safety envelope more egregiously than the others, and had done so despite repeated warnings and fines tens or hundreds of times more often than the others, then the others would be glad that the U.S. removed the Bad Boy and opened up wider opportunities to compete for business while operating less "aggressively" outside the reasonable safety zone.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Unlike banks, oil companies never get bailed out.

Unlike banks, oil companies have assets that are actually worth something more than a non-performing loan [that hasn't been written down yet].

If BP gets put under because of this blowout you can be assured that Shell, Exxon, Chevron and everyone else will never drill another offshore well [in the USA] because their Boards won't be able to allow the company to be exposed to the risk of complete corporate destruction based on a single blowout incident.

BP will survive, because everyone [and I mean everyone, including the US Government] can't afford to have BP and the rest of the offshore drilling industry go bye-bye [but that doesn't necssarily mean the existing shareholders will be left with anything].

I note that zerohedge has a post that Houston based investment bank Simmons and Co apparently has an "Overweight" recommendation on BP with a $52 price target. This would be the firm headed by the same "Simmons" that has been slagging BP relentlessly in recent weeks, claiming [among other things] that there is a leak from the blowout well coming out of the seafloor some 7 miles away from the wellhead. Once an Investment Banker, always an Investment Banker...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bp-...tock-price-sam

Very accurate post.

Can't trust anybody these days. I've had my doubts about Matt Simmons.

[GRG55]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Well, yes, of course, you personally aren't threatening anyone. Neither you nor the rest of us here, so far as I know, are in any position of power capable of such a threat.

You did remind me of that TARP threat however.

Actually, I don't think that it would be the logical legal position of other offshore oil exploration companies to abandon the Gulf if the U.S. crushed BP. It is the logical legal position of any such company to persue good profits, within some such legal risk envelope as they choose. If it was clear that BP had pushed the drilling safety envelope more egregiously than the others, and had done so despite repeated warnings and fines tens or hundreds of times more often than the others, then the others would be glad that the U.S. removed the Bad Boy and opened up wider opportunities to compete for business while operating less "aggressively" outside the reasonable safety zone.

I have already made my commentary on this line of reasoning on another thread. My previous observation about Board fiduciary obligation stands.

[cjppjc]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

I have already made my commentary on this line of reasoning on another thread. My previous observation about Board fiduciary obligation stands.

Board fiduciary duty is overrated.

[chr5648]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

Or oil in the water.

There are also times when it is better to stay indoors when there is blood on the streets.

Good tip, I'll have to write it down.

[Aetius Romulous]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

If BP gets put under because of this blowout you can be assured that Shell, Exxon, Chevron and everyone else will never drill another offshore well [in the USA] because their Boards won't be able to allow the company to be exposed to the risk of complete corporate destruction based on a single blowout incident.

I don't agree. As long as there is oil to be had, there will be wells (barring legislation). The industry will simply monetize the increased risk, or work legally to reduce their exposure. It is a giant pain in the ass for all concerned no doubt, but the market will carry on.

Personally, my fervent wish is for exactly that - that a barrel of oil more truly reflect the social costs inherent in it's use and production. In a perfect world, that "risk premium" would be paid to the society that bears the risk...but one step at a time.

[Roughneck]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

If BP goes under because of this event it will cause the majors to reconsider the net worth of deep off shore drilling,how can it not? BP may very well have violated safety protocol and pushed production ahead of safety but in the oil drilling business shit sometimes just happens regardless of how care full you are. The possibilty that one major accident could ruin your company will weigh heavy on future exploration. Remember, the big wigs and board members make their pay day on company stock options.

[cjppjc]

Re: BP is getting K I L L E D

If BP goes under because of this event it will cause the majors to reconsider the net worth of deep off shore drilling,how can it not? BP may very well have violated safety protocol and pushed production ahead of safety but in the oil drilling business shit sometimes just happens regardless of how care full you are. The possibilty that one major accident could ruin your company will weigh heavy on future exploration. Remember, the big wigs and board members make their pay day on company stock options.

I'm not sure I understand what you or GRG55 wish.



Edit: To be fair I'm not sure I know what I wish either. Kind of why I've kept my nose out of these BP threads.