Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

[metalman]

aug 2001... same month & yr that itulip said 'take a 15% position in gold' prechter sez... ' we’re coming into a major long term buying opportunity'.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE
aug. 2, 2001
PRECHTER I’m very excited about them. I’ve been bearish on them for 21 years. In February I wrote that you need to start thinking about getting your mechanisms in place to buy gold and silver, because we’re coming into a major long term buying opportunity. I’m not sure that I’m going to be able to pinpoint it. I said from the beginning that gold should go under $200 an ounce before the bear market is over. I think that last drop could be in tandem with a last rally in the Dow, or it could be the first part of the bear market deflation when people sell every asset, even their best ones, in order to cover debts and try to stay alive. I’m not sure quite how this will play out, but I do know that we are probably between three weeks and two years of the greatest buying opportunity for gold -- maybe ever.

but he never did say 'buy' & he's called 'the end of the bull market in gold' over & over for thereafter...

Prechter on gold - and more
jan. 12, 2004
"No one wanted gold at the February 2001 low, when it was $255/oz. Since it rose above 360, it has been in demand. The hype in the gold market is tremendous, and even local newspapers talk about it. Gold has been losing momentum for several months. It has reached the low 400s, the upper end of our target range for this wave pattern, as cited in the October 3, 2003, issue of EWT. Commercials, typically savvy players, hold a record short position in gold."

Gold's Surge Nearing an End, Prechter Says - FOXBusiness.com
nov. 13, 2009
Is gold nearing the end of its record-setting tear above $1,100?

Prechter: Gold To Fall 40% From Here
Jan. 25, 2010
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."

his stock market calls such, too... here he is going 2x short just before the big rally from 9780 to 10630 on the dow off the nov. 2009 dip...

Prechter Goes All-IN At 200% Short
nov. 2009

perfect timing... perfectly bad...

but no matter how many times prechter gets it wrong, he's quoted in the press for his 'impressive track record' of calls. wtf? discuss.

[jmaxey]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

It's a good thing Prechter can support his investing habit by writing newsletters and advisory services.

[GRG55]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

aug 2001... same month & yr that itulip said 'take a 15% position in gold' prechter sez... ' we’re coming into a major long term buying opportunity'.

but he never did say 'buy' & he's called 'the end of the bull market in gold' over & over for thereafter...


his stock market calls such, too... here he is going 2x short just before the big rally from 9780 to 10630 on the dow off the nov. 2009 dip...



perfect timing... perfectly bad...

but no matter how many times prechter gets it wrong, he's quoted in the press for his 'impressive track record' of calls. wtf? discuss.

Because the name of the game in the brokerage business is transaction volume...and the brokers love putting their clients on to impressive sounding preachers like Prechter because it helps them "get religion" and keep the portfolio turning over...

[jk]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

because they've got to provide some balancing commentary to all the time they devote to gold bulls?

[metalman]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

because they've got to provide some balancing commentary to all the time they devote to gold bulls?

the perfect cnbc guest says 'buy' on monday 'sell' on tuesday 'buy' wednesday 'sell' thursday then 'buy' friday... wait a minute... wtf am i doing giving away metalman's hot new guarateed wealth trading system? i'm calling my cnbc producer first thing monday. see you suckers in heaven!

[Spartacus]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

NOT wrong on Gold: wrong on deflation.

Unlike Mish, Prechter did a valid analysis of deflations - if there had been deflation, Gold's price would have fallen

Prechter: wrong on the main call (deflation), Correct on the sub-call (Gold), (dumb & smart) => LOSS
Mish: WRONG on the main call (deflation), WRONG on the sub-call (Gold), (dumb & dumber) => PROFIT

go figure

[Jay]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

if there had been deflation, Gold's price would have fallen

I thought we had put this to rest around here. Deflation, or inflation for that matter, has little to do with the direct gold price. It is more closely related to the inverse of faith in government and real interest rates.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

In general, deflation is neutral or bearish for gold. It's a matter of definition.

. If deflation means primarily falling prices, than real rates are positive, and that is bearish for gold.

If deflation is declining asset leverage, than the government may print money and lower interest rates to prop up asset prices.
This can cause negative real rates, which are bullish for gold.

[metalman]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

In general, deflation is neutral or bearish for gold. It's a matter of definition.

. If deflation means primarily falling prices, than real rates are positive, and that is bearish for gold.

If deflation is declining asset leverage, than the government may print money and lower interest rates to prop up asset prices.
This can cause negative real rates, which are bullish for gold.

to get the most out of itulip, google site:itulip.com gold negative real interest rates

you're preaching to the choir, my friend...

[hayekvindicated]

Prechter: Gold will fall 40 percent from peak

YAWN

[raja]

Re: Prechter: Gold will fall 40 percent from peak

His reasoning: "bearish technical momentum" could send gold down 40%.

Yes, YAWN.

However, there seem to be opposing (real) forces:

1) Gold goes up due to fear of sovereign default and global collapse, i.e., phase 2 of the Great Recession and the second dip in the markets . . . inverse coupling.

2) Gold goes down as investors sell gold to cover losses in other investments due to #1 above . . . coupling.

Any thoughts?

By the way, thanks FRED for changing the icons

[FRED]

Re: Prechter: Gold will fall 40 percent from peak

His reasoning: "bearish technical momentum" could send gold down 40%.

Yes, YAWN.

However, there seem to be opposing (real) forces:

1) Gold goes up due to fear of sovereign default and global collapse, i.e., phase 2 of the Great Recession and the second dip in the markets . . . inverse coupling.

2) Gold goes down as investors sell gold to cover losses in other investments due to #1 above . . . coupling.

Any thoughts?

By the way, thanks FRED for changing the icons

Glad you like them! Anyone finds more they like, I'll add them.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Prechter: Gold will fall 40 percent from peak

His reasoning: "bearish technical momentum" could send gold down 40%.

Yes, YAWN.

However, there seem to be opposing (real) forces:

1) Gold goes up due to fear of sovereign default and global collapse, i.e., phase 2 of the Great Recession and the second dip in the markets . . . inverse coupling.

2) Gold goes down as investors sell gold to cover losses in other investments due to #1 above . . . coupling.

Any thoughts?

By the way, thanks FRED for changing the icons

Yes YAWN.

Because I don't listen to people who get it wrong most of the time. If you listen to people like that, you will lose a lot of money.

Better still, I respect people who will accept when they make a mistake.

Prechter ought to start his every prediction with the following disclaimer:

I've made a lot of predictions over the years and have been wrong about 90 percent of the time. Applying a simple rule of thumb, I think there is a 90 percent chance that this will be wrong too.

[srivatsan]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

All,

Once again, Obfuscation.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37490761...sonal_finance/

Cheers, Srivatsan.

aug 2001... same month & yr that itulip said 'take a 15% position in gold' prechter sez... ' we’re coming into a major long term buying opportunity'.

but he never did say 'buy' & he's called 'the end of the bull market in gold' over & over for thereafter...


his stock market calls such, too... here he is going 2x short just before the big rally from 9780 to 10630 on the dow off the nov. 2009 dip...



perfect timing... perfectly bad...

but no matter how many times prechter gets it wrong, he's quoted in the press for his 'impressive track record' of calls. wtf? discuss.

[jk]

Re: Prechter wrong on gold for 9 years, Still quoted by the business media. Why?

All,

Once again, Obfuscation.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37490761...sonal_finance/

Cheers, Srivatsan.

i loved this passage: "“Gold is not something that we would classify as safe investment," said Michael Crook, investment strategist at Barclays’ Wealth. "It’s quite volatile. We see periods of significant price appreciation and significant price declines relatively frequently.”"

"quite volatile." tsk, tsk. unlike, say, stocks? oh, right, down 1000 in 17 minutes. unlike, say, bonds? oh, right, when interest rate risk can become credit risk, like with greek sovereigns. unlike, say, currencies? oh, right....