Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

[sandwind]

The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either

http://www.straightstocks.com/curren...tStocks.com%29

[sandwind]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

Marc Faber is expecting some major correction in gold.
http://www.youtube.com/user/marcfabe.../0/SEAQKT79kfY

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

Faber didn't really say that. He said it's conceivable that gold goes down somewhat more. That's different than a 'major correction'.

What he did say definitively is that he's quite happy holding physical gold.

[sandwind]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

oops. Yes actually I looked it again and now I see it same as you. I just wondering about gold if this is really truth subprime currency in deflation mode. Quality of the gold as currency is better from one side of course but from the other the dollar (and some other currency) are the way to pay taxes, debts etc... To make gold a value you have to destroy dollar one way or another. It's value is taking power from dollar weakness. In deflation most countries will look first for dollar then gold as they are usually all in debt. Only with secured amount of dollars they can start to buy gold unless they don't won't default. USA is in debt but hard to point out places in much better shape and only USA can print $. USA is on unsustainable way but I wonder if this ride in gold is not too fast.

[metalman]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

oops. Yes actually I looked it again and now I see it same as you. I just wondering about gold if this is really truth subprime currency in deflation mode. Quality of the gold as currency is better from one side of course but from the other the dollar (and some other currency) are the way to pay taxes, debts etc... To make gold a value you have to destroy dollar one way or another. It's value is taking power from dollar weakness. In deflation most countries will look first for dollar then gold as they are usually all in debt. Only with secured amount of dollars they can start to buy gold unless they don't won't default. USA is in debt but hard to point out places in much better shape and only USA can print $. USA is on unsustainable way but I wonder if this ride in gold is not too fast.

all major currencies have deflated against gold > 75% since itulip went 15% in aug. 2001. from 4th currency site...

When the gold prices rises in all major currencies that means all currencies are depreciating against gold and we are seeing global inflation. Daily gold charts below since Jan. 2000. (Source: World Gold Counsel)

Gold in US dollars daily



Gold in EU euros daily



Gold in Japanese yen daily



Gold in British pound sterling daily

aug 2001... same month & yr that itulip said 'take a 15% position in gold' prechter sez... ' we’re coming into a major long term buying opportunity'.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE
aug. 2, 2001
PRECHTER I’m very excited about them. I’ve been bearish on them for 21 years. In February I wrote that you need to start thinking about getting your mechanisms in place to buy gold and silver, because we’re coming into a major long term buying opportunity. I’m not sure that I’m going to be able to pinpoint it. I said from the beginning that gold should go under $200 an ounce before the bear market is over. I think that last drop could be in tandem with a last rally in the Dow, or it could be the first part of the bear market deflation when people sell every asset, even their best ones, in order to cover debts and try to stay alive. I’m not sure quite how this will play out, but I do know that we are probably between three weeks and two years of the greatest buying opportunity for gold -- maybe ever.

but he never did... & he's called for 'the end' of the bull market over & over for years after...

Prechter on gold - and more
jan. 12, 2004
"No one wanted gold at the February 2001 low, when it was $255/oz. Since it rose above 360, it has been in demand. The hype in the gold market is tremendous, and even local newspapers talk about it. Gold has been losing momentum for several months. It has reached the low 400s, the upper end of our target range for this wave pattern, as cited in the October 3, 2003, issue of EWT. Commercials, typically savvy players, hold a record short position in gold."

Gold's Surge Nearing an End, Prechter Says - FOXBusiness.com
nov. 13, 2009
Is gold nearing the end of its record-setting tear above $1,100?

Prechter: Gold To Fall 40% From Here
Jan. 25, 2010
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."

if itulip failed to say 'buy' in 2001 & predicted gold prices topping 4 times since then & was wrong 4 times, i'd be outa here. but no matter how many times prechter gets it wrong, he gets press. wtf? discuss.

btw... his stock market calls will lose you $$$, too... here his is going 2x short just before the big rally from 9780 to 10630 on the dow...

Prechter Goes All-IN At 200% Short
nov. 2009

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

I believe the last statement Prechter made was gold tends to do well during inflation, and that we are in a deflationary environment now.

Below is from David Rosenberg's comment Thursday 6/3/2010.

...the widespread consensus that gold is an effective inflation hedge is not on the mark. Our statistical analysis shows there to be a fairly loose link even if gold is a store of value. We also know that in the deflationary 1930s, the Sterling price of gold doubled. Gold is also a hedge against financial instability and when the world is awash with over $200 trillion of household, corporate and government liabilities, deflation works against debt servicing capabilities and calls into question the integrity of the global financial system. This is why gold has so much allure today. It is a reflection of investor concern over the monetary stability, and Ben Bernanke and other central bankers only have to step on the printing presses whereas gold miners have to drill over two miles into the ground.

The bottom line is that gold makes up a mere 0.05% share of global household net worth (see page 22 of the FT) and so small incremental allocations into bullion or gold-type investments can exert a dramatic impact. Gold cannot be printed by central banks and is a monetary metal that is no government’s liability. It is malleable and its supply curve is inelastic over the intermediate term. And central banks, who were selling during the higher interest rate times of the 1980s and 1990s, are now reallocating their FX reserves towards gold, especially in Asia.

Gold is in a secular bull market, actually it has been for over a decade and double from where we are today, in my view, it’s a very easy call. And, if inflation is really the be all that ends all for the gold price, then keep in mind that gold has rallied five-fold since 1999 and yet inflation is the same today as it was then and the core rate has been cut in half. Go figure. Maybe the bottom in gold prices occurred at the same time that global production peaked — maybe it is a bull market rooted in little more than a shifting supply curve.

[sandwind]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

You can just put the link to the website metalman. You don't need to paste charts everytime;) Yes it is hard to argue with charts. Just wonder if this rally is not tooo fast as you can see acceleration in it. I would expect end of the rally in several years and the price is going fast up allready. That's why I had this major correction in my head probably.

[metalman]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

I believe the last statement Prechter made was gold tends to do well during inflation, and that we are in a deflationary environment now.

Below is from David Rosenberg's comment Thursday 6/3/2010.

this covers it...

Part I: “Is Gold a Good Hedge?” by Professor Feldstein reviewed
Part II: “The Gold Bubble and the Gold Bugs” by Nouriel Roubini reviewed
Part III: Will the year 2010 be the first in a decade that is worse for gold than for stocks?

concludes... at times gold rises due to inflation... at other time due to currency depreciation. since 2001 due to both... explains the sharp & continuous rise since 2001, no?

[pianodoctor]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

Did anyone notice in the Prechter interview where they were showing all the TV ads to get you to SELL your gold, they were describing them as ads to get you to BUY gold (inferring it's gold buying-mania time)?

[sandwind]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

I think that part of the world is converting it's currency to gold instand of dollar(or at least part of the money) as the trust in dollar was partly lost. So when foreign currences are losing purchasing power against the dollar it actually can make gold to go up(as the gold market is quite small ). Question is if this trend can be compromised and the trust in dollar can be restored.

[Ben]

Re: Prechter:"Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

yeah "the only things that will hold their purchasing power are precious metals"
"it's a race to the bottom for fiat currencies"
(paraphrases)
doesn't get much stronger

Of course there will be corrections. We've sat through several around the $200 mark before