David Rosenberg nails the jobs report

[DRumsfeld2000]

The report says it all. The really interesting point is the huge reduction of people 'available for work'.

http://www.businessinsider.com/david...lusterStock%29

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: David Rosenberg nails the jobs report

My favorite bit:

The broad U-6 unemployment rate also managed to drop, to 16.6%
from 17.1%, again owing to a sharp decline in the total pool of available labour
last month. (We have no idea where these 504,000 souls wandered off to...

[zoog]

Re: David Rosenberg nails the jobs report

My favorite bit:

That's good, but the opener got me.

This is probably the first time on record when a 431,000 surge in U.S. nonfarm payrolls was viewed as a terrible employment report. Perhaps this is because 411,000 of those jobs, or 95% of the tally, were in Census hirings, which everyone knows are temporary.

Classic.Face Palm

Nice to see him mention the duration of unemployment

We also had some new record highs being set:

i) The average duration of unemployment (34.4 weeks from 33.0 weeks in April);
and,
ii) The share of the unemployed ranks who have been out of work now for at
least a half-year (46.0% from 45.9%).

And looks like Wall Street doesn't like the jobs report once again. It's like a broken record...

iTulip, October 4, 2007

Next Wall Street surprise: More bad employment news

...The Associated Press reports today that "Wall Street appears optimistic the Labor Department report Friday will indicate a rebound from August and include revisions to that month's dismal numbers. August's job creation report showed a decline in payrolls when economists had predicted a rise, and sent the Dow Jones industrial average down nearly 250 points the day it was released."

AntiSpin: We've been tracking the duration of unemployment numbers because they, combined with other data, are a decent leading indicator of future unemployment, especially at turning points...

He talks about the average duration, iTulip seems to like the median, so here's both

[quatros]

Re: David Rosenberg nails the jobs report

Hard to go against someone of his caliber... however, he was wrong at the bottom of 3/09. This obviously looks extreme and close to a turning point. Not a good idea to assess when, but it is coming sooner than everyone thinks.

Since opinions cost nothing, here is mine. NYSE Up volume has never been this low. Not even during the asian/mexican/russian/LTC crises. Same extreme readings for advance issues, decline issues and down volume. Apparently, we *are* at a turning point. Weeks or months away only and then, a bull it is. Should this happen, I will make sure to pass my hat around... only gold coins for a tip.

[jk]

Re: David Rosenberg nails the jobs report

rosenberg left out the fact that, of the 41000 new private sector jobs, roughly 200,000 were added by the birth/death model, and likely will be revised downward several times in the future.