Canada G-7’s First to Lift Rate After World Recession

[isoquant]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...s7QsusYg&pos=3#

Rate adjusted 25 basis points with no guarantee that this is the beginning of a trend.

[Anon21456]

Re: Canada G-7’s First to Lift Rate After World Recession

That also caught my eye. My guess is that Canada and the US will have a perceivable recovery before the next recession while we (Western Europe) will not.
But the Canadian housing bubble might start to crash. Do they have a builder index that can be shorted ?

[isoquant]

Re: Canada G-7’s First to Lift Rate After World Recession

That also caught my eye. My guess is that Canada and the US will have a perceivable recovery before the next recession while we (Western Europe) will not.
But the Canadian housing bubble might start to crash. Do they have a builder index that can be shorted ?

Here's an aritcle with some ideas. Basically it suggests shorting REITs. I question whether Carney will keep hiking rates, especially if things turn really bad again in Europe. But maybe the EU has fought off their troubles for a year or so, in which case more rate hikes may come.

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock...E-FNM0511.aspx

[GRG55]

Re: Canada G-7’s First to Lift Rate After World Recession

That also caught my eye. My guess is that Canada and the US will have a perceivable recovery before the next recession while we (Western Europe) will not.
But the Canadian housing bubble might start to crash. Do they have a builder index that can be shorted ?

Under pressure from the Her Majesty's Official Opposition and the public, the minority Conservative government ended a decade long string of budget surpluses and introduced a "stimulus" plan last year and drove the budget into massive deficit. Temporarily they say. We'll see.

In any case Ottawa has goosed the economy with way too much liquidity and now the Bank of Canada is stuck trying to deal with the fallout. The cost structure in our economy is fast becoming globally uncompetitive. With Europe heading into a disinflationary [deflation anyone?] recession and US growth likely to slow as its stimulus package effects work through, Canada won't be immune.

Having said that, I have every confidence that Governor Carney won't threaten the steep yield curve that allows our beloved banks to keep making risk free profits [and paying out risk free bonuses]...

Canada’s economy keeps roaring ahead

The Canadian economy, already the envy of the Group of Seven, is within striking distance of returning to its pre-recession peak.

Fuelled by a hot housing market, a rebounding manufacturing sector, higher incomes and a mini-hiring boom, the economy expanded in the first three months of the year at the fastest annualized pace in more than a decade. The stronger-than-expected 6.1-per-cent rate reported by Statistics Canada Monday was more than twice the rate of growth in the United States in the same period...

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Canada G-7’s First to Lift Rate After World Recession

Having said that, I have every confidence that Governor Carney won't threaten the steep yield curve that allows our beloved banks to keep making risk free profits [and paying out risk free bonuses]...

You can be sure of that. :eek:

When Carney reduced the bank rate to 1.5% almost exactly 18 months ago - it was a 50 YEAR LOW for Canadian rates. I never thought I would see the day when an INCREASE to a whopping 0.50% would garner so much attention. God help us all.

[oddlots]

Re: Canada G-7’s First to Lift Rate After World Recession

"God help us all." Well put. I remember hearing Jim Grant saying that he couldn't imagine anything resembling an economy in which near zero % rates would be a benefit. In other words, we no longer have one as our fathers might have understood it. (By we, I mean the OECD.)

Is Canada going to be a pacifist in the currency wars? That's going to hurt.

Bring on the housing crash and right quick so we can join in on the fun.