Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

[tmicou]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

The canvas shouldn't collapse due to pressure since the pressure would be equal on all sides, if it's permeable to water. But if it's permeable to water, it probably would be permeable to oil, then there would be problems of the expansion of the NG as it rises up the column, and there are numerous ocean currents at various levels in a mile deep column of the ocean, so maintaining the rigidity of such a large flexible structure would seem to be difficult. So what about a rigid structure encasing the riser pipe? I guess that sounds a lot like their next try.

I would wonder, if you can pump golf balls, mud, and cement under pressure, could you pump enough oxygenated air into a rigid containment vessel to burn a large % of the oil/gas near the ocean floor?

Toast -- it doesn't need to be permeable to water or oil provided it's open at one or both ends. An uncorked glass bottle won't crack (from water pressure) at any depth. Expansion during the rise to the surface shouldn't be a problem given sufficiently large diameter (or cone shape widening near the top).

Ocean currents are a problem to be sure, especially when dealing with a flexible mile long flexible canvas cylinder. That being said, anchors, battons, stringers, stiff hoops and other guidewires could be engineered to keep it under corntrol. And nothing says it has to go straight up -- it could float around quite a bit. And nothing says it has to go all the way to the surface where wind/waves and other issues crop up. It could go up to about 300' below the surface where a rig could control the outflow at that point. The general concept here is to Guide the Flow to a point where it can be controlled, not to stop the flow.

[Chomsky]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Top kill fails

BP has given up on efforts to rein in the blown out Macondo well by pumping mud and debris into the well bore.

Noah Brenner, Anthony Guegel, Jonathan Davis & Anthea Pitt 28 May 2010 00:25 GMT

...Flow from the Macondo well is not travelling up the main well bore, BP operations boss Doug Suttles said Tuesday, a revelation that supports theories that a cement failure played a part in the blowout.

“We actually believe the flow path is between two strings of the casing and not up the main wellbore,” Suttles said.

Suttles said BP could not be certain of the flow path but diagnostic tests on the well seem to indicate the flow is not coming up main bore...

This is a potentially serious problem. If the flow is not contained within the cased wellbore and has opened a fracture all the way to the seafloor surface behind the pipe [as Matt Simmons is now alleging] then this thing moves into a whole different catagory of disaster because there is no assurance the flow can be killed.

Also the reports so far that the positive and negative pressure tests on the liner passed now look like they are being revised. Seems the negative pressure test didn't come off "clean". So in classic industrial accident fashion one mistake is followed by another, and then another, and so forth...until the compound effect produces the inevitable catastrophic result.

...BP told congressional investigators that pressure tests on a drill pipe hours before the deadly explosion that caused the Gulf of Mexico oil leak flagged up a "fundamental mistake", a memo released by congressmen Henry Waxman and Bart Stupak said...

...The error the BP official referred to concerned the results of a negative pressure test.
The BP investigator said that two hours before the explosion, as preparations were being made on the Transocean semi-submersible Deepwater Horizon to start negative pressure testing of the wellbore, the system gained 15 barrels of liquid rather than the five that were expected, indicating there may have been influx from the well...

...The investigator said the pressure test was then moved to the kill line, where a volume of fluid came out when the line was opened. It was then closed.


At this time, pressure began to build in the system to 1400 pounds per square inch. The line was opened and pressure on the kill line was bled to 0 psi, while pressure on the drill pipe remained at 1400 psi.

The BP investigator said this indicated a "fundamental mistake" may have been made here as this was an "indicator of a very large abnormality".

However, once the pressure was bled off, work continued as normal - the line was monitored and by 7.55pm the rig team were apparently satisfied the test had been successful and started displacing the remaining downhole fluids with seawater...

Thanks GRG55.

Is it not possible for the relief well to intercept the main wellbore below the fissure?

[flintlock]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

I'm not betting on anything. I merely said I have doubts about BP being the one doing the drilling. Politically this will become a huge issue when the full implications hit home. We are talking about potential economic and environmental devastation on a massive scale. Fishing and tourism will be affected over a huge area, affecting not only the coast but for miles inland. Seafood restaurants, shippers of seafood, etc. No one is going to pay $75 for a fried shrimp dinner. Not only tourism but an already hard hit housing industry will be affected, at least in the short term. The allure of a beach front home disappears with the stench of rotting fish and oil balls. I have a friend who owns a beach home at Ft. Morgan and was already struggling to pay for it. Now he's seeing his rentals beginning to cancel at $2500 week.

I'm skeptical of attempts to fix this problem. Amazing people are working on this, but we are talking a very difficult task. Can anyone answer how long this can continue to spew oil? Years? Could the Gulf turn into a giant dead sludge filled sea? This spill could make all other "environmental" efforts look puny in comparison. The demise of the snail darter won't seem like such a big deal anymore. If the Feds has us postponing dam building for that, imagine what they'll do when entire oceans are threatened.

Chernobyl didn't stop nuke plants but it sure did have an affect on the introduction of new ones, both the cost and number. Without such a disaster we might have seen a nuke plant on every corner by now. Offshore drilling will be affected. Prices will go up. Life is going to get more expensive. Food, transportation, heating, cooling, everything. People need to get used to that idea and plan accordingly, instead of longing for the good old days of $2 gallon gas.

[flintlock]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

And then the Hurricanes come along and........

This is starting to look like a story line from a Hollywood disaster movie. Where the entire world must come together to stop the giant asteroid from destroying the earth.

[strittmatter]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

I am only interested in what actually happened and why.

Jet engine analogies and subsidized farmers aside.......ya, me too!

Let's remember that the well was completely cased and had passed the positive and negative pressure tests before the blowout. It is the sequence of events that happened after that allowed the blowout to occur.

http://www.roughneckcity.com/uploads...estigation.pdf

"fundamental mistakes"......"following the drilling plan"............

So we're down to "boys will be boys"???

Give me a frigging break anymore!

[Starving Steve]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Thank you GRG55.

I am just so tired of the BS. I am and adult, I can take it. Tell me the truth. What was all the crap about, the success factor being 60-70% trumpted by the media? Is this the largest number someone could come up with so that when it didn't work the agency who said it has maximized what's left of their credibility. Had they said 10% they would have been asked then why are you trying? If they say 90% and it doesn't work, then maybe there competency in the teqnique may be questioned.

Its not just this, were getting the BS about the economy, finances, medicine etc. its coming from all angles.


How does the releif well work? I assume it lowers the pressure in the resevior and the hole in ground will stop spewing oil.
How close to the actual well do they have to get to lower the pressure? How sure of a thing is this?

I can always tell when I am reading propaganda feeds from Greenpeace and the Sierra Club. The feeds are written in the words: "scientists say", "experts believe", "the informed consensus", "catastrophe", "crisis", "disaster", "worst ever in history", etc. The purpose of the feeds is to close-off divergent opinions because the subtle message to those who would dissent is, "Who are you to differ with or question "experts" or "scientists", or 'the informed or published consensus of 'scientists' or 'experts'?"
If this so-called, "disaster" is "the worst ever in U.S. history", why is that important scientifically? Just who has kept the records on oil spills throughout history, especially during WWII along the coasts of the U.S, especially the Gulf Coast? Just what are the metrics of measuring how big an oil spill is? Just what makes oil toxic? What is the concern of so-called "experts" and who are those so-called, "experts"? Are those experts lawyers or those who stand to gain financially by law-suits?

We are made of oil. We require oil in our diet. Oil is part of the natural environment. Every living-thing on this planet decays into oil when dead. So what is toxic about oil? A real Earth-scientist would welcome this question and not dismiss it because it is an important question to answer.

[Roughneck]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Anyone who has experience in off shore drilling knew, as did BP, that the only way to stop this thing was with a relief well. That is why their initial response was to begin drilling ASAP and try to contain the leak as much as possible. The other options had little chance to succeed and could possibly make things worse. Of course, given the political atmosphere and public opinion BP has to make it appear they are doing everything possible to stop this leak. I don't think the public at large or the media truly has a grasp on the challenges involved here. President Obama can give speeches,congress can jump up and down and posture but that doesn't change the facts. Anyone who thinks BP isn't doing everything in their power to stop this thing or that the government should "take charge" also doesn't have a clue. The truth is they are drilling not one but two relief wells and that is the only thing that has a chance to resolve this situation. It is an environmental catastrophe and many people,including my family and friends, are suffering due to this event. But that doesn't change the facts either.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Thanks Roughneck and GRG55 and others for walking us through what is happening. But I have to admit, I really didn't even BEGIN to comprehend how serious this situation was until I read this, and it's almost 2 weeks old;

http://rense.com/general90/analy.htm

1st, when you guys are talking about the BOP valve, I'm thinking something that fits into this 20" pipe, not something 60' tall weighing 450 tons!



This is one of the scariest things I've ever read.

...
With that being said I will try and instill the sense of urgency and seriousness that I personally feel about this....this is a bad one people...we are close...real close and all this is a very real, present and IMMINENT Danger. Trust me when I tell you that people who know are scared of this, it is THAT bad. People who deal with things that would scare most people half to death they deal with as a matter of course every single day...men who operate enormous machinery that most of us will never see or ever be around....I run and own some pretty big stuff...bigger and more powerful than cars or trucks, but the scale of some these oil and gas industry machines?...they dwarf these things...things so huge that most buildings cannot house them.....literally gargantuan equipment and all that is associated with it, huge forces and the people who operate these monsters?...they are worried, very worried....and they rarely worry, if ever....and I am worried...which is also not the norm.

This is an edge of the abyss situation that we are facing in my opinion. Forget what you see now...this oil slick is minuscule in order of magnitude of what could happen..what is near to happening and what ABSOLUTELY WILL HAPPEN if it cannot be stopped. I cannot impress this enough...NEAR...because it truly is near. You probably sense it...know that this could go big...well it can...and although you might not understand exactly what is going on you can understand that we are not being told everything and it is difficult to form a clear picture. I hope to make some things clear and give people enough of an information handle to "get it".

...

Oil as it comes up from the earth is not exactly "clean"....in fact..it has a fair amount of crud in it....sand, hydrocarbons, other solids...and these impurities, they are abrasive...just like sand paper...or more like a "Sand blaster" in this case...so this abrasive mix of oil, crud and gas is rushing through the steel tubing and the machinery of the BOP under enormous virtually inexhaustible pressure...and it's chewing away the steel pipes and parts that are holding it back from rushing more...wherever there is a kink or something in the way?...there is the force of the abrasive fluid slowly eating it, wearing it away, same for whatever leak that has high pressure fluid blasting through it...which may not be the ones you see, but ones inside what is left of the pipes that the fluid is really shooting out of or past.

So the "Leaks" get bigger because they are being eroded away, when that happens?...more fluid gushes past and they get eaten more, the faster it can leak, the more it will eat, the more it chews away, the faster it goes like a dam made of ice slowly but surely melting....and it will eventually go faster and faster until all the parts are worn thin enough that they will fail and explode off and the gusher will be more and more open...until it's wide open...no restrictions...THAT is inevitable, it WILL happen if this well cannot be stopped from flowing, it is only a matter of time and how much time is only a guess...but one thing that is certain...it will continue to gush more and more until it does eat everything away and is wide open.

Right now there are guesses as to how much flow is actually gushing out, but suffice to say...it's a lot...there are figures from 5,000 Barrels Per Day to 100,000 BPD....some are from video analysis of the "Plume video", some are from surface area calculations of the "Seen oil" slick..but even BP says they are all just guesses and even they are not sure...but take for example a low range number...like 10,000 BPD...next week it will be 15,000 BPD...+5k....next 25,000BPD....+10....next 40,000BPD...+15...and will increase in a geometric progression until it is wide open...estimates of that wide open flow rate are also guesses but IMO it could easily be 100,000 BPD if it blows out completely....and IT WILL BLOW OUT COMPLETELY if it cannot be halted or if for some reason nature slows or stops, which is highly highly unlikely. Even if there is 25% gas it is still 75k BPD of oil...over 3 million gallons per day...a couple of Exxon Valdez spills PER WEEK...and I used conservative numbers as you see...so it could easily do much worse...in fact my estimate could be the "Best case"...as bad as it is. The "Gas" escaping presents a whole other set of problems which depending on how much gas could escape might even be worse....but for another thread...Right now it is overall flow and mixed "Product" gushing out...and nothing in this flow is good for anything.

...

That is what they are up against...a broken bop tower attached to the well head...a leaky bent pipe coming out of that...and a "corrosive" (abrasive) fluid under high pressure shooting out the leaks and eating it all away at the same time. The clock is truly ticking and the erosion of the components will not and cannot be stopped as long as it's flowing.

...

BP knows they have they have a ticking time bomb, and how many ticks we get?...is only a guess, but they are well aware that is a finite number...and it's counting down unrelentingly 24/7...if you noticed...BP had the Bop's brain removed...there is a reason for this...and believe me when I tell you this is their number one priority mission and all these sucker domes are more to make regular people feel good about less oil leakage, Yay! save Flipper and tippy the turtle!.... but they are not the Alpha priority for the engineers whom are well aware that a far greater and inevitable danger looms.....maybe why these measures seem half assed to us...likely because they are..and ultimately even if they did work?...they wouldn't have anything left to work on for long because the riser pipe is going to be blown off the blow out protector and there Won't be any oil shooting out the pipe laying on the sea bed...because it will no longer be attached to the well...BP has plenty of manpower and money so they can throw some at those things and it will make people glad to see that they are doing something...but that's all it is...the real mission is a technological challenge and is taking some time to setup...so if we all saw nothing happening?...people would be berserk by now...so you get some candy while you wait for the real thing...

The real missions are two approaches to the same thing, ultimately killing this well...sealing it off with cement and heavy fluids in the well's bore itself...that is the ultimate goal...and it's the only thing that will stop this....

...

If the Top Kill/ junk shot / clogger fails to work...the only other short term remedy will be to literally saw off the top of the stack tower and try to attach an entire new bop on top of the old busted one...that includes all the possible damage coming into play of course...and it also includes the whole thing being virtually wide open...because the entire riser pipe must be sawed off to do this. At that point if there is any busted up pipe inside the old bop or chunks of crap, that may get blasted out...if the rams are partially out in the stream, they might get train wrecked...because they are worn already, they must be.

There is no doubt that some damage was done to the connection because 5000 feet of massive pipe was pushed, pulled, shoved and bent around when the whole thing came crashing down....how much damage or not or even if it is leaking there we are not being told, but 60 feet tall of 450 ton blow out preventer being pulled on by a 21" diameter heavy steel pipe with a gigantic ship on the other end is going flex and torque whatever it is connected to...that you can count on, whether it took it and is still ok, take a guess cause I don't know...I truly HOPE it's at least ok enough to handle the top kill shot...because if it isn't...we are in very serious trouble and no one is talking about the well casing run all the way down itself possibly being damaged anywhere along the way...if that happened?...then the whole thing could tear itself apart, blast out of the sea floor and there won't BE anything left to clog up...just a real deep hole that will get bigger and bigger blasting out more and more as it does...and who knows where that nightmare will take us...but you can count on it being nowhere good, that's for sure...it would guess it would be like nothing mankind has seen...because we might not survive that one....it's just that huge an unknown...a roaring hole into a massive oil and gas deposit...I doubt anyone can calculate where it would end, or how much damage would be done...but "LOTS" would be an understatement.....

Anything after the top kill shots is desperation time, because the well will have to be opened up a whole lot more than it is now for anything else to be accomplished. If the riser is worn down and tears off before the top kill happens, that new BOP may take over the shot as the primary mission...they are prepared to some degree for this and there is a new bop on the rig in position, that has been disclosed.

So this the "Plan"

Ongoing: drill relief wells the whole time.

1. Suck away what they can, if they can. This does NOTHING but remove "some" oil from entering the sea.

2. Top kill clog shot. If it works, they will pump in heavy "mud" and then cement immediately and the well will stop gushing, it will be effectively "Killed" sealed off, leak over. <<
3. New bop install. Saw the top off. If they get to this point the well is blowing out far more than it is now. They will have to put the new unit in place through that raging stream.....via remote subs...a very very difficult task to be sure. This is desperation time....

4. Relief wells connect and pump in fluid and cement and kill the well from 18,000 feet down...if they can, still a challenge....90 days out minimum from may 3rd when the first well began. They should be able to slow down the flow even if they cannot kill it with one well...the second well is 90 days away from...Sunday May 16th..

That's it guys...it's all we got and the situation is dire....aside from the extreme possibles like exploding a massive charge to crush the thing closed...and THAT IS being discussed...if it takes an atomic bomb to do it?...we may very well face a situation THAT desperate....this thing is an almost unimaginably powerful monster that we have just stabbed with a knife and spit in the face of.... and it's in a very weak cage, it doesn't sleep, it doesn't need to eat and it only gets stronger and more fierce as time goes by...it's going berserk and it's wrecking it's cage, tearing at it, screaming, bolts starting to pop loose and it's not going stop smashing and bashing anytime soon...oh and btw someone just handcuffed you to the bars and you cannot get away now.

I say this because the amount, the insane volumes, of gas and oil that could be released if this thing blows apart are truly of nightmare proportions...this one isn't in the south western gulf like the IXTOC blowout was...the GOM is sort of separated into two portions and the western side is sort of trapped...the Eastern side is not and the "Loop current" which connects to the "Gulf Stream" flows right through this side...it will carry the oil spillage out into the Gulf stream and all the way up the eastern seaboard all the way to the UK and Europe where it ends. There will be who knows how many cubic feet of gas released into the atmosphere and the surrounding area with an untold amount of toxins...the economic implications are dire...the fishing industry annihilated, beaches and tourism to them destroyed...and who knows what other effects there will be..it's a very very bad disaster to say the least...it's bad enough NOW...and THIS IS NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN...and WILL HAPPEN if they cannot stop this thing...you must get your head around that, nothing will stop this from blowing apart and going wide open if the rush of fluids cannot be halted, it is a CERTAINTY.

It's beyond our control as regular citizens really...we ALL should be screaming at our leaders that we do realize the consequences and to take this seriously...and I mean like War footing seriously, because it could get that bad....we can and should be aware of the historic nature of this thing because it IS being downplayed in the media...it could create mass panic if people really knew..and it still might if it does blow apart because there won't be any booms, any sucker hats or tubes or anything else that is going to do jack shit to stop it...it'll be like trying to blow a tidal wave away with a soda straw and everyone become well aware of just how weak and puny Man is compared to the forces of nature. If the well does cut loose? we are talking thousands and thousands of square miles of toxic crud....I'm not even sure the well drilling rigs would even be able to operate in the area...a massive rush of gas can sink ships...the gas is not breathable and it's Explosive too...One thunder storm comes by and a lightning strike?....BOOM...I'm sure the men working there realize they are probably in one the most hazardous work zones they have ever been in...I don't think it's an ELE or something of that order, but we don't need to be wiped out to be stuck enjoying a giant bowl of SUCK...for a very long time...

And all the while?...the wear out, blow apart countdown timer is ticking away on a huge time bomb that WILL go off, but no one knows when...and they are racing against it and it never stops ticking away....I truly hope we win that race...

I am telling you all this so that you will understand what we face..and also so that if you live near the Gulf you can make preparations for the possibilities...which could be incredibly bad...panic evacs or just plain mass panic, badass noxious fumes or worse...I guarantee that NO ONE knows for sure.

They really only have one shot here...and that is the top kill, Watch for it and pay attention, be aware what this all means to ALL OF US and I hope I explained things well enough to be understood by anyone. The top kill shot should be coming soon...I hope...as soon as possible....if you hear it failed...or if the well blew itself apart before they can do it...get the fuck ready, because Pandora's box is about to open wide and the closest thing to the SHTF for real that we will likely see in our lifetimes is about come charging out at full rampant force...and it's a very large and deep box....


Godspeed people.......

[Minion]

Re: As expected, BP abandons Top Kill approach

Try www.theoildrum.com

There they are looking at this from all angles

I'm nervous about the nuclear detonation idea that evidently worked in Russia. If it works, great. If not, we could have several more fissures letting out the oil.

Strange how the ocean looks red where the spill is.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Anyone who has experience in off shore drilling knew, as did BP, that the only way to stop this thing was with a relief well. That is why their initial response was to begin drilling ASAP and try to contain the leak as much as possible. The other options had little chance to succeed and could possibly make things worse. Of course, given the political atmosphere and public opinion BP has to make it appear they are doing everything possible to stop this leak. I don't think the public at large or the media truly has a grasp on the challenges involved here. President Obama can give speeches,congress can jump up and down and posture but that doesn't change the facts. Anyone who thinks BP isn't doing everything in their power to stop this thing or that the government should "take charge" also doesn't have a clue. The truth is they are drilling not one but two relief wells and that is the only thing that has a chance to resolve this situation. It is an environmental catastrophe and many people,including my family and friends, are suffering due to this event. But that doesn't change the facts either.

Some understand the MSM bullshit and await for post like above on iTulip. Good stuff.

[don]

Re: As expected, BP abandons Top Kill approach

the latest, filtered through the Gray Lady filters....

Storm brewin'

U.S. Plans ‘for Worst’ in Gulf, Seeing Risk in Leak Strategy

By JOSEPH BERGER and LESLIE KAUFMAN

After the failure of an effort to seal off a well spewing oil one mile beneath the Gulf of Mexico, a top Obama administration environmental official said the government is “prepared for the worst” in case oil keeps gushing until relief wells are finished sometime in August.

The chance that some oil will continue to leak for months was underscored by the managing director of BP, Robert Dudley, who described plans to put in place a second version of a containment dome, a strategy that failed earlier this month. Mr. Dudley, speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program, said that attempt had given the company’s engineers valuable lessons that would be applied to the new dome. But he added that even if it worked, some oil would seep out until the relief wells provided an “end point” by cutting off the flow beneath the seabed.

Carol Browner, President Obama’s adviser for environment and energy, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the government had ordered BP to drill a second relief well in case the first did not work, and that the administration had played a significant role in calling an end on Saturday to BP’s “top kill” effort to plug the well with heavy drilling mud.
Interviewed on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Ms. Browner acknowledged that the new strategy, called a containment cap, came with significant risks. It could actually increase the flow of oil by as much as 20 percent because a key pipe — a riser — needed to be cut to allow for the cap to have a spot over which it could fit cleanly.

“What our experts are saying is that when you cut the riser, the kink may be holding some of the oil in, and so we could see an increase,” she said.

“According to BP, the riser cutting will likely start Monday, or Tuesday,” Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, said in a statement on Sunday.

Even if the cap works, it might not fit snugly enough to capture all the leaking oil. “The worst is that we have oil leaking until August, until these relief wells are dug,” Ms. Browner said, “and we will be prepared for the worst.”

Ms. Browner called the Gulf spill, which started April 22, “probably the worst environmental disaster we’ve ever faced in this country,” and said that it was being met with “the biggest environmental response.”

The Obama administration has come under increasing criticism for the scope of the disaster and pressure to do more to contain it. In her interviews today, Ms. Browner reeled off a litany of specific steps the government had taken and was getting underway.

Ms. Browner said that it had been the opinion of Energy Secretary Steven Chu that BP should abandon the “top kill” technique they had hoped would plug the leak, in which heavy drilling mud was pumped down at high pressure to counteract the oil flow, saying that he had been “very, very concerned” that continuing to pump the fluid down could lead to “something worse” happening. She said Mr. Chu was leading a team of 150 scientists who were consulting on every aspect of the response.

In the meantime, Ms. Browner said that the federal government was helping arm local officials with a number of remedies to clean up as much of the oil as possible. She said oil was being burned from the surface of the sea in 80 locations, that 1,400 vessels were skimming up oil in other places, and that booms were capturing much oil along the shore.But Louisiana’s governor, Bobby Jindal, complained in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” that the federal government was not supplying as much of the booms and other resources as local officials need. He said Terrebonne Parish had submitted a plan for 180,000 feet of hard boom — about 34 miles — and was only approved by the Coast Guard for half that amount, and ultimately the required supply was not made available. “They literally had hard boom sitting on the dock and they didn’t deploy it,” said Mr. Jindal, a Republican.

Mr. Dudley said there were several reasons to think that the containment cap would have better odds at success than the “top kill” or an earlier dome. The “engineering on this is more simple” than top kill, and the failure of the first dome, which was clogged by ice crystals, had given the company new ideas, he said, including wrapping the cap in pipes carrying warm water to offset the formation of ice crystals. He acknowledged, however, that the cap would not seal tightly enough to block all the oil from escaping.

The spill began after the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 people. Since then, it has dumped an estimated 18 million to 40 million gallons into the gulf.

Mr. Dudley denied that BP, the British oil company, had cut corners in drilling the original well. He shrugged off a report Sunday in The New York Times that said that as far back as last June BP engineers expressed concern that the metal casing the company wanted to use might collapse under pressure.

“The casing designs that are used in the Gulf of Mexico, we’ve used those in other places,” he said. “I think those are statements that an investigation needs to go through and look at. Cutting corners is not the way I describe how we do our business.”

He conceded that in the weeks before the explosion BP was concerned that it was losing control of the well, though he seemed to put the blame on the contractors that drilled the well. “There were issues of well control, signs out there and there are strict procedures that are written — the rig owners to walk through well control.”

He also said that the failure of the blowout preventer, the mechanism that was meant to cut off the flow of oil in case of an emergency, is “something that is very, very troubling.”

“It is the piece of equipment that is not expected to fail, and that’s going to have implications for everyone around the world,” he said

Ms. Browner was asked why BP did not have a contingency plan that anticipated the kind of blowout that took place on the Deepwater Horizon. She said that deepwater wells have been drilled for several decades and there had never been this kind of accident.

“But going forward we have to learn from this accident,” she said, adding: “How can we make sure that there are redundancies in place and what happens when those redundancies don’t work.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/31/us/31spill.html?hp

[LargoWinch]

Re: As expected, BP abandons Top Kill approach

Matt Simmons on the spill: "only a nuke will do":

[GRG55]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

In layman's terms, does the bold part mean that, instead of oil leaking from the pipe, it has actually opened a fissure in the seafloor from which the oil can flow?

The information coming out is confusing and conflicting. BP has acknowledged that they believe there is flow behind the casing. How far up the backside of the well that flow continues and what path it is taking to get to the surface is the subject of conflicting reports. BP is implying that the fluid is entering the wellbore and that is restricting the flow. My view from the beginning was that a liner lap failure was a reasonable possiblity, and if BP had used an elastomeric seal at the liner hanger, and did not get cement to the top of the liner, a failure of that seal could be the reason hydrocarbons were entering the wellbore [see my early posts on this on other related threads]. If the flow is behind just the production liner and is entering the well at the liner lap then it's not really a big deal and they will eventually get the well killed with a relief well.

However, Matt Simmons [a prominent energy sector investment banker and author of one of the first books on Peak Oil, "Twilight in the Desert" ] is publicly claiming that a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration contracted vessel has identified an oil plume some seven miles from the well that is larger than any of the plumes from the marine riser. That implies that the flow has found a conduit to surface independent of the wellbore - a very, very serious situation. Simmons is given to hysterical hyperbole on many occasions, but he has an excellent information network in the industry...and as we have seen, the officials in charge of this mess [BP and the government] have been less than forthcoming so maybe Simmons knows something that the officials also know but aren't prepared to acknowledge given they probably can't answer the next obvious question - "What are you going to do about it?". Having said that, I have not been able to find anything on the NOAA website or other sources to corroborate what Simmons is claiming. If anybody out there has come across anything credible regarding this please post the source.

[GRG55]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Thanks GRG55.

Is it not possible for the relief well to intercept the main wellbore below the fissure?

The relief well provides a method to seal off the original wellbore. If the flow has found a conduit to get all the way to the surface that is independent of the original wellbore [which is what Matt Simmons is alleging] then a relief well can't fix that problem.

[Roughneck]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

However, Matt Simmons [a prominent energy sector investment banker and author of one of the first books on Peak Oil, "Twilight in the Desert" ] is publicly claiming that a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration contracted vessel has identified an oil plume some seven miles from the well that is larger than any of the plumes from the marine riser. That implies that the flow has found a conduit to surface independent of the wellbore - a very, very serious situation. Simmons is given to hysterical hyperbole on many occasions, but he has an excellent information network in the industry.

I have NOT heard any independent conformation of this. If this was true then the relief well efforts would be in question and the whole nature of the event would be truly catastrophic. Even more so than what it is now. I watched the interview and the guy lost me when he talked about the government taking over the response effort. NO ONE has more deep water experience than BP. They want to stop this thing and are doing everything possible.