Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

[unlucky]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Read the blog, it one of the most read gold blogs in the world and with good reason. There are very little people in the world who have such a grasp on the whole financial issue as FOFOA. And no I don't know if we should go by those numbers ... aside from that, read the blog, all of it.

I've read the blog. The author appears to claim that the US (and the world) can solve its debt problems by swapping gold for debt at a price in excess of $50,000 per oz in inflation-adjusted dollars. But he/she does not explain in terms simple enough for me to understand how this can be done.

Rapid inflation can potentially remove the burden of debt - that is well understood. (And I say "potentially" because the reactions of creditors/funders need to be anticipated). But if gold can be swapped for debt at $50,000 per oz without entailing inflation, then that is a new and important idea that needs to be clearly explained.

If the idea is correct, then it should be possible to explain it in a few hundred words in a way that any intelligent reader can grasp. So why the verbosity, hyperbole and "red-warning-lights-flashing" phrases such as "this event may happen at any moment".

Does the author recognize the similarity to a pump-and-dump email? Was the author alive during the dot-com bubble?

I get the impression the article is trying to sell me on gold. I am seriously fed up with this sort of stuff. I am a reasonably intelligent person, I earn reasonably well, so if there are people out there who want me to invest my money a certain way, why can't they explain to me in terms that I can understand why it is a good idea? I spend time on the road selling the products of my firm to real live customers. There is not one single customer who will buy without understanding exactly what the product is and what its value is. They ask tough questions, often they ask questions that would seem dumb or naive to a person who is an expert in the space. But neither I nor any competent salesman would question their intelligence, their right to ask whatever questions they want, or try to suggest that they should buy before understanding exactly what they will get. Attempting to railroad your customers into buying a product they do not really want or need is bad salemanship. Think about the last time it happened to you as a customer, would you go back to buy the same product again? It only works with customers who are inexperienced and it ruins your reputation in the wider market.

The FIRE economy is replete with this sort of stuff. In fact it seems to be the only form of selling that FIRE knows how to do. "Buy our product because for reasons that are hard for you to understand it will make you rich!". I'm sorry - I'm not going to buy your product unless I understand clearly and in detail how it works, and the onus is on you - not me - to achieve that level of understanding. Voodoo phrases and fear-mongering are not going to help us get there.

Perhaps this is the most-read gold blog.. I don't care. I am not a momentum trader.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

I've read the blog. The author appears to claim that the US (and the world) can solve its debt problems by swapping gold for debt at a price in excess of $50,000 per oz in inflation-adjusted dollars. But he/she does not explain in terms simple enough for me to understand how this can be done.

I share your view unlucky.

The problem with Gold is that it can be hoarded...there is not enough of it. (i.e. the big guys will always get to it before you do; trust me).

...

I believe that if EJ says buy Gold, unfortunately it is because things are awhire as in "A"whire...

Gold is not the solution, which I won't see in my lifetime.

cjppjc; any newborns yet? ;)

[cjppjc]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

I share your view unlucky.

The problem with Gold is that it can be hoarded...there is not enough of it. (i.e. the big guys will always get to it before you do; trust me).

...

I believe that if EJ says buy Gold, unfortunately it is because things are awhire as in "A"whire...

Gold is not the solution, which I won't see in my lifetime.

cjppjc; any newborns yet? ;)

I almost choked when I read that.

In another life I was fortunate to have a beautiful boy, who has grown to exceed many of my expectations. Growing up I rode him hard, but always with love. Whenever I asked him if I was being too hard on him he always said no. Be sure to show your love to your child and enjoy these years. They will go by very fast.

[Gnosis]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Will my Russian suitcase nuke work if I retrofit it in the backyard?

[c1ue]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

I'll have you know today I just saw Satellite grade solar with 40% eff (for terrestial use) at only 4x the cost of presently available tech. SAW it, not read about it, as in fielded suff. They are talking about going to 45-50% eff and moving down to a 2x cost factor. That's the kind of stuff I'm talking about that get's me excited. This is here and now stuff (the 4x cost and 40% eff, anyway). AND I saw a broad coalition of competent agencies and individuals dedicated to makeing this a reality in the next 10 years.

I was (and am) very impressed.

Let me guess, it was gallium arsenide and a focused solar, multi junction cell.

Again, not new. The cost reduction is completely not straightforward; unlike silicon there is no possible economy of scale to draw off of.

Of course many people are working on it, I know a number personally. If they succeed, and it is very much an 'if', the result will be useful.

But even with the 40% efficiency/halving of present cost, the resulting electricity still isn't competitive without major subsidies. That's where the second part comes in: targetting specific applications.

That's why I've said before that 30% non focused single junction solar is the magic point. Read the note I posted in the 'Economics' section.

[jtabeb]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Let me guess, it was gallium arsenide and a focused solar, multi junction cell.

That's why I've said before that 30% non focused single junction solar is the magic point. Read the note I posted in the 'Economics' section.

Yep,

Thanks I will

[Minion]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Forecasts of $50,000 to $500,000 U.S. for an ounce of gold are themselves: a sell signal. [Sic,] "What is a tulip bulb worth?"

The general public is not involved. This step is required for a mania.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

I've read the blog. The author appears to claim that the US (and the world) can solve its debt problems by swapping gold for debt at a price in excess of $50,000 per oz in inflation-adjusted dollars. But he/she does not explain in terms simple enough for me to understand how this can be done.

Rapid inflation can potentially remove the burden of debt - that is well understood. (And I say "potentially" because the reactions of creditors/funders need to be anticipated). But if gold can be swapped for debt at $50,000 per oz without entailing inflation, then that is a new and important idea that needs to be clearly explained.

If the idea is correct, then it should be possible to explain it in a few hundred words in a way that any intelligent reader can grasp. So why the verbosity, hyperbole and "red-warning-lights-flashing" phrases such as "this event may happen at any moment".

Does the author recognize the similarity to a pump-and-dump email? Was the author alive during the dot-com bubble?

I get the impression the article is trying to sell me on gold. I am seriously fed up with this sort of stuff. I am a reasonably intelligent person, I earn reasonably well, so if there are people out there who want me to invest my money a certain way, why can't they explain to me in terms that I can understand why it is a good idea? I spend time on the road selling the products of my firm to real live customers. There is not one single customer who will buy without understanding exactly what the product is and what its value is. They ask tough questions, often they ask questions that would seem dumb or naive to a person who is an expert in the space. But neither I nor any competent salesman would question their intelligence, their right to ask whatever questions they want, or try to suggest that they should buy before understanding exactly what they will get. Attempting to railroad your customers into buying a product they do not really want or need is bad salemanship. Think about the last time it happened to you as a customer, would you go back to buy the same product again? It only works with customers who are inexperienced and it ruins your reputation in the wider market.

The FIRE economy is replete with this sort of stuff. In fact it seems to be the only form of selling that FIRE knows how to do. "Buy our product because for reasons that are hard for you to understand it will make you rich!". I'm sorry - I'm not going to buy your product unless I understand clearly and in detail how it works, and the onus is on you - not me - to achieve that level of understanding. Voodoo phrases and fear-mongering are not going to help us get there.

Perhaps this is the most-read gold blog.. I don't care. I am not a momentum trader.

Pump and dump schemes, tele-marketing of gold on TV, momentum-trading and public hysteria are four more indicators of an aging bull market that is becoming, "long on the tooth". Bull markets die of exhaustion and excess, and this bulll market is showing the classic signs of a top.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

...schemes, tele-marketing of gold on TV, ...

SS, this is incorrect in the context you are presenting it (i.e. bearish for Gold).

You see, the scam this time on tv, is to sell your gold, not to buy it.

[bpr]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

You see, the scam this time on tv, is to sell your gold, not to buy it.

Buy and sell gold ads are probably the only thing on the radio these days. There was a time when it was just right wing talk radio, but now it's all across the dial.

"The New York Mint has just released a limited number of rare American gold coins..."

Then there's the Goldline story.

If you are an old fart that still listens to radio like me, you might be wary of the number of ads both ways (buy it here, then sell it there).

[grapejelly]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Nowhere near a top. Lots of poorer peeps selling. There is no generalized popular sentiment for gold. That is years away.

[shiny!]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Nowhere near a top. Lots of poorer peeps selling. There is no generalized popular sentiment for gold. That is years away.

Institutions and governments buying, yes. But will we get a popular sentiment for gold? I don't know...

Most people are up to their eyeballs in debt, so where will they get the money to buy gold when they're struggling to make their rent? The last gold bubble happened when people remembered money having once been backed by silver. Precious metals weren't a foreign concept back then. And they weren't drowning in credit card debt like people are now. Maybe this time it really will be different?

[aaron]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Americans have savings. So do Asians and the rest of the world. On average we have a lot of debt, but that is not the correct way to look at it. There are a lot of people with money to spend - just cashing out of 10% retirement/mutual fund savings could increase metal prices A LOT.

[shiny!]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Americans have savings. So do Asians and the rest of the world. On average we have a lot of debt, but that is not the correct way to look at it. There are a lot of people with money to spend - just cashing out of 10% retirement/mutual fund savings could increase metal prices A LOT.

I see your point, thanks.

[BlackVoid]

Re: Why Gold Will Rise to $50k to as much as $500K per Ounce

Gold price:
The current price of gold that is shown everywhere is the PAPER price.
Many holders only hold paper.

The gold price is a confidence issue as well. Still, the majority believes in the system. And the system is going to fail, there is no way around current debt levels. There is no way around Peak Oil either (at least not without MAJOR changes).

However regarding FOFOA article, I could not follow. A secondary market with a much higher price? If that was true, all gold mines would be nationalized right away. Or central banks would covertly buy from the open market and push up the price very quickly. Having a separate market with much higher prices does not make any sense. Nobody would go to this market to buy.
As for his price predictions, that is suspect too. So if you have just a few pieces of golden jewelry, you will get rich? I don't think so.

But the bull market is far from over in my view.