Re: Article : why debt growth must exceed interest payments
Interesting paper - thanks, Rajiv. The comparison to the ideal gas law is one I've made, and very briefly objected to, in the iTulip post 4, 3, 2, 1 ... Deflation!. I particularly enjoyed reading the first reference in this paper, "Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars", though that one ("Silent Weapons ...") a bit too far fricking out doomer conspiracy flavored to be good discussion material for iTulip.
You should read this paper ("Fractional Reserve ...") Rajiv ;). It nicely explains that "the bigger problem", is not usury, but rather private central banks monetizing sovereign debt. My simple scenario above (of which I still doubt you understood the quite modest significance) demonstrated that usury did not necessitate inflation of the money supply. The point of that scenario is consistent with this paper you recommended, if I understand this paper correctly. This paper does explicitly state, on pages 20 and 21, that neither fiat currency nor private central banks are inevitably or necessarily unsound, though both certainly facilitate unsoundness. The paper does state that "risk-free" growth of the money in a system by charging interest necessarily degrades the value of the existing money (i.e., inflation) correspondingly. But this does not indict interest used to redistribute wealth (such as my simple scenario) or that is balanced by a corresponding risk of loss.
This paper points out, with a critical over-simplification (see below) that we did not need to convert from a gold backed currency to a debt backed currency in order to avoid throttling economic growth due to some shortage of currency. We could have stuck with the gold; it would have become more valuable as our national GDP increased.
The one over-simplification (in my view) is that gold is physically not a convenient currency in smaller units than roughly nuggets or dime sized coins. If we were still on a gold currency, then gold would be worth I presume many thousands of (current year) dollars per ounce, and a one cent transaction would require a spec of gold dust so fine that my aging eyes could not see it without a magnifying glass and my clumsy old fingers could not manipulate it. This paper however remains in the realm of analogs to the ideal gas law, in which the limit on granularity is (so far as equations such as the ideal gas law pv = nRT are concerned) infinitely small and even in the "real" world of physical gases, the granularity is on the order of atoms, of which there are some 6.022 * 1023 / 197 in a gram of gold, if my calculations are correct (Avagodro's number divided by the molecular weight of gold.)
I would gladly see us return to a pure gold currency standard now that we could use electronic means to transact in minute amounts (such as GoldMoney.com allows us.) Needless to say, I doubt this will happen in my lifetime. To put that more darkly, if this does happen anytime in the next few years, myself and billions of other humans would likely have died prematurely :eek: (meaning only a civilization destroying catastrophe will put us on a solid gold monetary system anytime soon, in my view.)
Back to this paper. As it stands now and as the paper discusses, most of our money is neither gold nor paper, but computer blips. Even this is not inevitably or necessarily unsound. If these computer blips were only created by publicly understood and limited means, insuring their scarcity, and if the computer money blip system had the highest integrity, insuring no possible "counterfeiting" of blips, then they could make a fine currency. Fat chance.
As it stands, the most powerful empire in human history has outsourced its "blip" management and creation to a private institution (the Fed) with no meaningful insight or reporting. This allows theft on a grand scale.
The recent bailouts of major banks (directly and indirectly via failing companies, banks, GSE's and nations) has hit the American two or three times over. The bailouts were funded by monetizing new debt, which debt is owed to the Fed, and which monetizing inflated the currency (degraded its value.) Each dollar of bailout hits the American tax payer's wallet twice, once as inflation losses and once as future tax (or otherwise promised benefit) losses. Ouch!
The paper goes on for many more pages in a delightful indictment of our current U.S. monetary system, motivating the need for reform. Many excellent quotes from various financial masters enliven the critique.
Originally posted by Rajiv
You should read this paper ("Fractional Reserve ...") Rajiv ;). It nicely explains that "the bigger problem", is not usury, but rather private central banks monetizing sovereign debt. My simple scenario above (of which I still doubt you understood the quite modest significance) demonstrated that usury did not necessitate inflation of the money supply. The point of that scenario is consistent with this paper you recommended, if I understand this paper correctly. This paper does explicitly state, on pages 20 and 21, that neither fiat currency nor private central banks are inevitably or necessarily unsound, though both certainly facilitate unsoundness. The paper does state that "risk-free" growth of the money in a system by charging interest necessarily degrades the value of the existing money (i.e., inflation) correspondingly. But this does not indict interest used to redistribute wealth (such as my simple scenario) or that is balanced by a corresponding risk of loss.
This paper points out, with a critical over-simplification (see below) that we did not need to convert from a gold backed currency to a debt backed currency in order to avoid throttling economic growth due to some shortage of currency. We could have stuck with the gold; it would have become more valuable as our national GDP increased.
The one over-simplification (in my view) is that gold is physically not a convenient currency in smaller units than roughly nuggets or dime sized coins. If we were still on a gold currency, then gold would be worth I presume many thousands of (current year) dollars per ounce, and a one cent transaction would require a spec of gold dust so fine that my aging eyes could not see it without a magnifying glass and my clumsy old fingers could not manipulate it. This paper however remains in the realm of analogs to the ideal gas law, in which the limit on granularity is (so far as equations such as the ideal gas law pv = nRT are concerned) infinitely small and even in the "real" world of physical gases, the granularity is on the order of atoms, of which there are some 6.022 * 1023 / 197 in a gram of gold, if my calculations are correct (Avagodro's number divided by the molecular weight of gold.)
I would gladly see us return to a pure gold currency standard now that we could use electronic means to transact in minute amounts (such as GoldMoney.com allows us.) Needless to say, I doubt this will happen in my lifetime. To put that more darkly, if this does happen anytime in the next few years, myself and billions of other humans would likely have died prematurely :eek: (meaning only a civilization destroying catastrophe will put us on a solid gold monetary system anytime soon, in my view.)
Back to this paper. As it stands now and as the paper discusses, most of our money is neither gold nor paper, but computer blips. Even this is not inevitably or necessarily unsound. If these computer blips were only created by publicly understood and limited means, insuring their scarcity, and if the computer money blip system had the highest integrity, insuring no possible "counterfeiting" of blips, then they could make a fine currency. Fat chance.
As it stands, the most powerful empire in human history has outsourced its "blip" management and creation to a private institution (the Fed) with no meaningful insight or reporting. This allows theft on a grand scale.
The recent bailouts of major banks (directly and indirectly via failing companies, banks, GSE's and nations) has hit the American two or three times over. The bailouts were funded by monetizing new debt, which debt is owed to the Fed, and which monetizing inflated the currency (degraded its value.) Each dollar of bailout hits the American tax payer's wallet twice, once as inflation losses and once as future tax (or otherwise promised benefit) losses. Ouch!
The paper goes on for many more pages in a delightful indictment of our current U.S. monetary system, motivating the need for reform. Many excellent quotes from various financial masters enliven the critique.
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