Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

[Roughneck]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

I am from Louisiana and have spent over 30 years in the oil and gas industry hence the screen name roughneck. I paid my way through college working off shore. It was and is a very dangerous business especially at the depths they are drilling these days. I knew one of the people killed in the explosion. The reason this will be a game changer I believe is because of two things. First the president(though half heartedly and with an alternate agenda) had proposed expanding drilling along the coast. Now the environmental folks will have all the ammunition they need to prevent this from happening or delaying it long enough that we will get in a serious bind down the road for resources. It could be the event that tips the scales towards alternative and very expensive forms of energy. The other reason I am saying this is because of the location of the leak. The marsh in Louisiana has been declining for years and this could deal a devastating blow to the ecosystem there. If the marsh grass dies you will see rapid loss of land due to erosion.In Alaska you had rock beaches you could wash and collect the oil. In the Marsh it will be hard if not impossible to clean up the mess. There have been other leaks and spills but none of this magnitude in such a sensitive location.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

The airliner analogy is okay from a systematic failure analysis within the context of the oil well but ultimately incomplete. When a 737 goes down it does not contaminated a couple of square thousand miles and wipe out an ecosystem that people's lives depend on. A better analogy would be Chernobyl.

I am pretty certain our lives are going to be changed by the consequences of this event.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

You people across the pond better get your paper towels ready. If the riser pipe fails and it takes 90 days to drill a relief well, you're in for a big surprise.

[aaron]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

I doubt that there will be a serious moratorium on drilling, but I fully expect there to be very few new permits.

As I am constantly reminded, I am J6P. I had no clue that these off-shore oil rigs (just one of them!) could potentially cause so much harm. The shock and dismay I feel seeing this does not compare at all to a plane crash. We know planes crash. They may even kill people on the ground. It is sad. This is devastating.

[Rajiv]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

Just to emphasize WAT's post

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

... A better analogy would be Chernobyl.

I am pretty certain our lives are going to be changed by the consequences of this event.

Yep. That was the analogy I used with my wife a couple of nights ago.

[Roughneck]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

Or perhaps three Mile Island. Environmentalists used TMI to derail the nuclear power industry in the US. It is possible they will use this disaster to derail off shore drilling.How much and to what effect remains to be seen.

If a moratorium on drilling happens, the supply of oil is going to shrink rapidly. So think not $3 per gal, but rather $30 per gal.

I don't think you will see rapidly escalating oil prices due to this disaster at least in the next few years. The lead time for drilling and bringing wells into production is years. IF the feds issued a total ban on drilling in ALL federal leased waters until an investigation is complete,which could take years, then at some point down the road the total number of wells in production would decline. While this will not have a positive impact on supply,how bad an impact depends on a lot of factors.

[Master Shake]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

GRG,

Any thoughts on the nascent conspiracy theory that this was due to sabotage?

[aaron]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

Don't have this thread sent to Rant and Rave; start a new one. It is too important. GRG already summed it up: This is really dangerous work. This was not the first blow-out or the last.

[GRG55]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

GRG,

Any thoughts on the nascent conspiracy theory that this was due to sabotage?

Absolutely no evidence of any kind to support that conclusion.

[nitroglycol]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

Incidentally, the maps posted by we_are_toast and Rajiv of the Gulf Stream are unsettling indeed.

[GRG55]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

There was something interesting from Sharon Astyk - Drill, Baby...Oops!

Much is being made of the lack of an acoustic shut-off for the BOPs [blow out preventers]. The acoustic back up is based on sending a particular pulse sequence of sonar signals from surface to the BOP and is normally the third stage method of actuating the BOPs. The first stage is always activation from the rig floor, the BOP control room or another station on the rig. The second stage is the automatic shut-offs, such as loss of pressure in the riser downstream of the BOPs. The acoustic system was originally designed to allow the BOPs to be activated from a location off the rig itself, such as the evacuation boat, because the activation device can be portable. It is also used as a back-up method to release the anchors for tethered drill ships, such as those sometimes used for Arctic drilling [these are different from dynamic positioning drill ships which operate in deep water and are not anchored to the seafloor].

In the Gulf of Mexico the third stage back up to activate the BOPs is tethered remote vehicles that can trigger the BOPs directly from the seafloor, and are operated from a surface support boat serving the rig during drilling operations. I don't know why operators in the USA prefer this option over acoustic signals...it could have something to do with the depth of water. Regardless, the argument that there is some deficiency because of the absence of an acoustic actuation system doesn't carry any weight in my opinion. Something serious has gone wrong with the BOP stack, which is almost inconceivable for those of us in the industry that understand just how much redundancy is built into these devices. If the automatic actuations didn't close the BOPs, and positive physical intervention from the tethered remote right at the BOP stack itself can't actuate them, the idea that they would have worked if only they had an acoustic trigger 5000 ft up is ridiculous.

In due course we are going to find out the reason the BOPs will not close, but that is little consolation now. My best guess is that something is jammed in the stack and preventing even the shear rams from closing [a drill collar? a piece of a failed liner? part of a retrievable packer?]. In my opinion an acoustic actuation wouldn't have made a tinkers damn bit of difference...

[GRG55]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

I am from Louisiana and have spent over 30 years in the oil and gas industry hence the screen name roughneck. I paid my way through college working off shore. It was and is a very dangerous business especially at the depths they are drilling these days. I knew one of the people killed in the explosion. The reason this will be a game changer I believe is because of two things. First the president(though half heartedly and with an alternate agenda) had proposed expanding drilling along the coast. Now the environmental folks will have all the ammunition they need to prevent this from happening or delaying it long enough that we will get in a serious bind down the road for resources. It could be the event that tips the scales towards alternative and very expensive forms of energy. The other reason I am saying this is because of the location of the leak. The marsh in Louisiana has been declining for years and this could deal a devastating blow to the ecosystem there. If the marsh grass dies you will see rapid loss of land due to erosion.In Alaska you had rock beaches you could wash and collect the oil. In the Marsh it will be hard if not impossible to clean up the mess. There have been other leaks and spills but none of this magnitude in such a sensitive location.

Roughneck: Any opinions, based on your experience, on why they cannot get any of the BOPs in the stack to close?

[WDCRob]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

Thanks GRG, very helpful info since that story is getting a lot of play right now.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

Three Mile Island should have derailed the nuclear power industry. It was on its way to disaster. We dodged a bullet.

Perhaps, nuclear power is now a safe option but not then.