George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

[Glenn Black]

Eric Arthur Blair (better known to most as "George Orwell") said:

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act”

After waiting for the second shoe to drop for quite a while, it finally seems like it's here.

Fasten your seat belt! Over the cliff we go....

[c1ue]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

Glenn,

Can you clarify what you mean by the second shoe?

[reggie]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

I think one could argue that we've been living in this paradigm since the days that Plato & Socrates tried to convince the Greeks to shed their democratic governmental institutions for management by "experts". Back then, however, they just called it the "Noble Lie".

[Glenn Black]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

Glenn,

Can you clarify what you mean by the second shoe?

To me, Greece is the next wave. They will prop it up quickly, but it will eventually fall apart again, because just as N. Americans have great attachment to our FIRE consumerism, the Greeks have just as much attachment to their historic lifestyle. It won't go away easily.

But this is the second wave that will knock us back good. Central Banks will re-double QE efforts, and try to stabilize, but even the common joe on the street knows something is very different. Everybody pretends its all OK, but it isn't.

Good-bye cruel world!!!!!

[reggie]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

To me, Greece is the next wave. They will prop it up quickly, but it will eventually fall apart again, because just as N. Americans have great attachment to our FIRE consumerism, the Greeks have just as much attachment to their historic lifestyle. It won't go away easily.

But this is the second wave that will knock us back good. Central Banks will re-double QE efforts, and try to stabilize, but even the common joe on the street knows something is very different. Everybody pretends its all OK, but it isn't.

Good-bye cruel world!!!!!

Oh, but there are new systems to replace the old. We are by no means heading into a vacuum.

[oddlots]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

Squinting hard I think the scary things about this are...

- the system has been feeling around for a final back-stop for quite awhile. I think the progressive laying off of "risk" onto government backed entities can be seen as the system turning on itself. I have a funny feeling that there's a necessity driving this that no one quite understands and it is this: "honest business" doesn't pay enough to keep the system expanding at the required rate to make the debt load at least appear sustainable. (I can't really quite articulate the mechanisms of this but it is the source of my dread.)
- I somehow think that this is the source of FIRE's apparently mesmerising power over politicians. (Incidentally I think this is also somehow the source of Blankfein's outrage at being attacked. What do they know that they feel secure and justified in such arrogance? As architects of the derivatives pyramid that holds up the debt-pyramid they feel entitled. They just can't come out and say it. And it's eating them up.)
- this is the first time I think that you can actually see near- term the limits of the available backstops being breached. I think the IMF could bring about 200 billion euros to bear from what I've heard or read today. That'd barely deal with Greece over the next two years. If you add up the amounts needed to support Spain, Portugal, Italy that ain't even close. Germany's already balking at what ~ 45 million euro for one country that amounts to about 2% of Euro area GDP. Spain is a much bigger problem: I think it's the third largest by GDP in the eurozone. How could there not be contagion in this situation.

I'd really like to believe that if the bankers were constrained and fraud was wrung out of the system we would perform better (as Jessie might say.) But I have a sinking feeling that, without the "bad luck" visited upon us by the banksters we wouldn't have had any "luck" at all.

[Jay]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

Squinting hard I think the scary things about this are...

- the system has been feeling around for a final back-stop for quite awhile. I think the progressive laying off of "risk" onto government backed entities can be seen as the system turning on itself. I have a funny feeling that there's a necessity driving this that no one quite understands and it is this: "honest business" doesn't pay enough to keep the system expanding at the required rate to make the debt load at least appear sustainable. (I can't really quite articulate the mechanisms of this but it is the source of my dread.)
- I somehow think that this is the source of FIRE's apparently mesmerising power over politicians. (Incidentally I think this is also somehow the source of Blankfein's outrage at being attacked. What do they know that they feel secure and justified in such arrogance? As architects of the derivatives pyramid that holds up the debt-pyramid they feel entitled. They just can't come out and say it. And it's eating them up.)
- this is the first time I think that you can actually see near- term the limits of the available backstops being breached. I think the IMF could bring about 200 billion euros to bear from what I've heard or read today. That'd barely deal with Greece over the next two years. If you add up the amounts needed to support Spain, Portugal, Italy that ain't even close. Germany's already balking at what ~ 45 million euro for one country that amounts to about 2% of Euro area GDP. Spain is a much bigger problem: I think it's the third largest by GDP in the eurozone. How could there not be contagion in this situation.

I'd really like to believe that if the bankers were constrained and fraud was wrung out of the system we would perform better (as Jessie might say.) But I have a sinking feeling that, without the "bad luck" visited upon us by the banksters we wouldn't have had any "luck" at all.

Well said. I think war, corruption and the drug trade help keep that expansion at the desired rate. When this game is over it will be ugly either way. Why not let them keep it going until the final pop? I would rather live in a semi-stable world than chaos and I think most of the powers feel this way too, even the ones who find the level of rot abhorrent.

Those kind of thoughts are hard to reconcile for me when I hate the system so much.

[sunskyfan]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

Squinting hard I think the scary things about this are...

-I have a funny feeling that there's a necessity driving this that no one quite understands and it is this: "honest business" doesn't pay enough to keep the system expanding at the required rate to make the debt load at least appear sustainable. (I can't really quite articulate the mechanisms of this but it is the source of my dread.)

This is a VERY GOOD description of what is going on. Nicely said. It reminds me of a meeting I was in about ten years ago. I worked for a DOD technical consulting firm and we were discussing an internal systematic problem. Being a young lad I held up my hand and suggested that we had some of the best analyst in the world right here in this room that could solve the problem with some but little effort. I was told immediately that was not possible simply because we could not AFFORD OURSELVES. True story.

[reggie]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

Well said. I think war, corruption and the drug trade help keep that expansion at the desired rate. When this game is over it will be ugly either way. Why not let them keep it going until the final pop? I would rather live in a semi-stable world than chaos and I think most of the powers feel this way too, even the ones who find the level of rot abhorrent.

Those kind of thoughts are hard to reconcile for me when I hate the system so much.

What makes you think we're not moving into a "level of rot" that is so "abhorrent" that your imagination is not yet capable of imagining it?

[jtabeb]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

What makes you think we're not moving into a "level of rot" that is so "abhorrent" that your imagination is not yet capable of imagining it?

That's the idea that has NOT YET dawned on most people. They think it is so rotten, it can not possibly be made more-so. (I think they will be UNPLEASANTLY surprised)

[reggie]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

That's the idea that has NOT YET dawned on most people. They think it is so rotten, it can not possibly be made more-so. (I think they will be UNPLEASANTLY surprised)

Here's a very bizarre future scenario that these guys are dreaming about.

[Jay]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

That's the idea that has NOT YET dawned on most people. They think it is so rotten, it can not possibly be made more-so. (I think they will be UNPLEASANTLY surprised)

I think it can and will be worse, possibly much more so. The question I ask is do you want that sh*t sandwich fast or slow?

[reggie]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

I think it can and will be worse, possibly much more so. The question I ask is do you want that sh*t sandwich fast or slow?

The way our brain biology functions, specifically in recognizing threats, limits the velocity of system changes. If the changes happen too quickly, our Amygdala will recognize the change as a threat and send fight or flight signals to our cerebral cortex. As soon as this happens, if it happens to too many, then they lose. So, our own biology restricts the rate-of-change, for that is the only way to keep the majority of us from recognizing the change as a threat.

Movies, like the one I posted above, help the public see the changes before they happen in a fictional setting, thereby effectively slowing down the rate of change because the brain has already been introduced to the new social structure, even if that introduction is via Hollywood media.

[oddlots]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

That is kind of mind blowing. What I take it to mean is that, without the pricing power that comes from being a contractor to the state (where there is little to no pushback on fees) there was no way to profitably do business. Is that the message? (Sorry I'm feeling a little thick tonight.)

[flintlock]

Re: George Orwell: 26 Years Too Early

That's the idea that has NOT YET dawned on most people. They think it is so rotten, it can not possibly be made more-so. (I think they will be UNPLEASANTLY surprised)

Things can definitely get a lot worse than our wildest dreams. People need to go back and re-read their history. Dachau, Katyn, Nanking? Only 65-70 years ago? How soon people forget. History tells us an totalitarian government will arise from the chaos if we don't get it straightened out first. And then we'll have bigger things to worry about than our 401k.