His prognosis -
The mostly likely sequence of events over the next 18-24 months is: (a) A weak economic recovery, causing (b) the Fed to keep rates at zero, causing (c) an already overvalued market to become dangerously overvalued, leading to (d) a collapse that makes the last two years look like a test run. Grantham has made a career out of studying and profiting from asset price bubbles, and his track record is pretty good.
Edit: FRED, the scribd doc shows up in the preview as expected, but once I submit the post, it seems to be loading forever.
Jgletter All 1q10
The mostly likely sequence of events over the next 18-24 months is: (a) A weak economic recovery, causing (b) the Fed to keep rates at zero, causing (c) an already overvalued market to become dangerously overvalued, leading to (d) a collapse that makes the last two years look like a test run. Grantham has made a career out of studying and profiting from asset price bubbles, and his track record is pretty good.
Edit: FRED, the scribd doc shows up in the preview as expected, but once I submit the post, it seems to be loading forever.
Jgletter All 1q10
Comment