Ash invisible and does this

[mooncliff]

http://www.popsci.com/science/articl...asa-tried-once

[flintlock]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Nothing some gauze pads and 30 weight ball bearings won't fix.

[mooncliff]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Ha, ha... and is that at 37,000 ft?

Long term, I think there are two ways this could be really disruptive.

If the eruptions last for years and are extreme, the ash could cover the entire northern hemisphere for years. This would not necessarily be enough to immediately endanger a plane, but it could be enough to make the maintenance costs burdensome. You could still fly, but at much higher cost. Tourist travel throughout the northern hemisphere would go way down, as would the transport of goods by air, so even places like Hawaii and North America, thousands of miles downwind, would see a very serious disruption.

Even if the eruptions are say a few months and are not too severe, this could push the airlines into bankruptcy, again drastically increasing the cost of flying and transporting goods by air, even if the ash causes immediate problems no farther than Europe.

World Air Traffic 24 Hour Period
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4g930pm8Ms

[Spartacus]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Definition: The broken window fallacy (see also "the Mises mistake", "the Rothbard ROFL", and "the Hayek hooey" ) ____ the notion that wasted/destroyed resources are economically bad

This will cause higher employment for Airbus & Boeing.

Ha, ha... and is that at 37,000 ft?

Long term, I think there are two ways this could be really disruptive.

If the eruptions last for years and are extreme, the ash could cover the entire northern hemisphere for years. This would not necessarily be enough to immediately endanger a plane, but it could be enough to make the maintenance costs burdensome. You could still fly, but at much higher cost. Tourist travel throughout the northern hemisphere would go way down, as would the transport of goods by air, so even places like Hawaii and North America, thousands of miles downwind, would see a very serious disruption.

Even if the eruptions are say a few months and are not too severe, this could push the airlines into bankruptcy, again drastically increasing the cost of flying and transporting goods by air, even if the ash causes immediate problems no farther than Europe.

World Air Traffic 24 Hour Period
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4g930pm8Ms

[D-Mack]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

NATO-OTAN too

NATO: F-16 fighters damaged by volcanic ash



By SLOBODAN LEKIC (AP) – 1 day ago

BRUSSELS — A senior Western diplomat says several NATO F-16 fighters suffered engine damage after flying through the volcanic ash cloud covering large parts of Europe.

The official declined to provide more details on the military flights, except to say that glasslike deposits were found inside the planes' engines after they patroled over European airspace.

Last week, two Finnish Air Force F-18 fighter-bombers suffered similar damage while flying through the ash plume that has paralyzed air traffic over much of Europe. Both landed safely, but their jet engines will require expensive overhauls.

Volcanic ash tends to stick to a jet engine's interior parts, such as the turbines, where it melts to form a glassy coating. This restricts air flow and heats up the engine, leading to engine failure.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...g3uXwD9F63E6G4

[cobben]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

scroll down to "Laki"

Mt. Redoubt Eruptions – What Effect If Any on the Summer? Winter?
http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=175
"Only 2.6% of the material erupted was tephra but ash fall extended all the way to mainland Europe. Map from Thordarson and Self (1993).

Laki is also known for its atmospheric effects. The convective eruption column of Laki carried gases to altitudes of 15 km (10 miles). These gases formed aerosols that caused cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly by as much as 1 degree C. This cooling is the largest such volcanic-induced event in historic time. In Iceland, the haze lead to the loss of most of the islands livestock (by eating fluorine contaminated grass), crop failure (by acid rain) and the death of 9,000 people, one-quarter of the human residents (by famine).

This event is rated as VEI6 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, but the eight month emission of sulfuric aerosols resulted in one of the most important climatic and socially repercussive events of the last millennium.

In Great Britain, the summer of 1783 was known as the "sand-summer" due to ash fallout. The eruption continued until 7 February 1784. Grímsvötn volcano, from which the Laki fissure extends, was also erupting at the time from 1783 until 1785. The outpouring of gases, including an estimated 8 million tons of fluorineand estimated 120 million tons of sulfur dioxide gave rise to what has since become known as the "Laki haze" across Europe. This was the equivalent of three times the total annual European industrial output in 2006, and also equivalent to a Mount Pinatubo-1991 eruption every three days. This outpouring of sulfur dioxide during unusual weather conditions caused a thick haze to spread across western Europe, resulting in many thousands of deaths throughout 1783 and the winter of 1784.

The poisonous cloud drifted to Bergenin Norway, then spread to Praguein the Province of Bohemiaby 17 June, Berlinby 18 June, Parisby 20 June, Le Havreby 22 June, and to Great Britainby 23 June. The fog was so thick that boats stayed in port, unable to navigate, and the sun was described as "blood coloured"

This disruption then led to a most severe winter in 1784, where an estimated to have caused 8,000 additional deaths in the UK. In the spring thaw, Germany and Central Europe then reported severe flood damage.

In North America, the winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey, and the longest freezing over of Chesapeake Bay. There was ice skating in Charleston Harbor, a huge snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi Riverfroze at New Orleans, and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico."

[Master Shake]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Broken window fallacy????

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Definition: The broken window fallacy (see also "the Mises mistake", "the Rothbard ROFL", and "the Hayek hooey" ) ____ the notion that wasted/destroyed resources are economically bad

I thought the broken window fallacy was the notion that wasted/destroyed resources were economically good, not bad.

As for "Mises mistake", my Google searches find various discussions of mistakes Mises might have made, but none appear to be some infamous mistake identifiable out of context with just his name.

As for "the Rothbard ROFL" and "the Hayek hooey", my Google search finds exactly one hit each, to this present iTulip thread. What are they?

As an aside, you have presented a delightful example of a certain rhetorical device. By tossing in some inessential technical terms, you (almost) inoculated your primary comment regarding the broken window fallacy from criticism. I thought right up front that you had the meaning of "the broken window fallacy" backwards, but hesitated to protest, because I didn't know what the parenthetical phrases meant and felt too lazy to look them up. If Master Shake had not awoken me from my stupor, I would let this pass unprotested. Cute ;).

[fallout]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

The 1783-1784 eruption is credited with helping to create the French Revolution, among other things, due to widespread crop disruptions and famine created across northwestern Europe.
"Let them eat cake!"

[Spartacus]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

When I was writing it I thought the fictional alliterations MM, RR and HH, made the parody of the real fallacy TOO obvious, and no challenge at all to figure out, at least for anyone who's read any Austrian literature.

As for "the Rothbard ROFL" and "the Hayek hooey", my Google search finds exactly one hit each, to this present iTulip thread. What are they?

As an aside, you have presented a delightful example of a certain rhetorical device. By tossing in some inessential technical terms, you (almost) inoculated your primary comment regarding the broken window fallacy from criticism. I thought right up front that you had the meaning of "the broken window fallacy" backwards, but hesitated to protest, because I didn't know what the parenthetical phrases meant and felt too lazy to look them up. If Master Shake had not awoken me from my stupor, I would let this pass unprotested. Cute ;).

[D-Mack]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Not much to see here in Germany

I wonder how society would cope with a real big eruption.

The Laki volcano eruption occurred in the June of 1783 in Iceland killing many thousands and spreading a massive haze that covered most of Europe and parts of North America. This cloud was even reported to have extended into Asia and North Africa.

...

In reference to the Laki volcano eruption in Iceland, Benjamin Franklin during a lecture in 1784 made the following comments ‘….when the effect of the sun’s rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should have been greater, there existed a constant fog over all Europe, and a great part of North America…’

The Laki volcano eruption in Iceland therefore, effectively eradicated the summer of that year. The sun was obscured by the vast cloud caused by the Laki eruption and, what should have been a warm summer in the northern hemisphere, took on winter proportions, not just in Iceland, but all over Europe. It was reported that the sun either remained as a pale ghost or took on a strange, blood red colour in the volcanic haze.

http://www.kwintessential.co.uk/arti...on-Iceland/529

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

When I was writing it I thought the fictional alliterations MM, RR and HH, made the parody of the real fallacy TOO obvious,

I think I have amply demonstrated by now that, at least for some of us wit-challenged nerds such as myself, whatever point you were making ... wasn't understood. Sorry.

[kriden]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Here is a story of a British Airways B-747 that flew through a volcano unknowingly in 1982:

“Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control. I trust you are not in too much distress.”

This optimistic statement was made on June 24, 1982 aboard a British Airways B-747 airliner bound from London for Auckland with stop-overs in Bombay, Madras, Kuala Lumpur, Perth and Melbourne.

The airliner, however, failed to reach its destination. At 8:40 p.m. Jakarta time, south of Java in the Indian Ocean, co-pilot Roger Greaves and flight engineer Barry Townley-Freeman noticed St. Elmo’s fire appearing on the windshield. St. Elmo’s fire is a special kind of coronal discharge originating from a high-voltage electrical field in the atmosphere. From inside it looked as though tracer bullets were hitting the plane. Soon the aircraft commander, Eric Moody, also noted the phenomenon. He had returned to the cockpit after a short absence.

As a rule, St. Elmo’s fire indicates thunderstorm clouds nearby, but the weather radar displayed nothing of the sort. Still, the crew switched on a de-icing system for safety’s sake and “fasten your belts” lights went on in the cabin.

There was no thunderstorm in the region, however. It appeared that the airliner, flying at an altitude of 11,000 meters, entered a cloud of volcanic ash suddenly spewed by the Javan volcano Galunggung.

Fumes began building in the passenger cabin. Knowing nothing of the volcano, the general conclusion was that it was cigarette smoking – in those days smoking was allowed on aircraft. Soon, however, the fumes thickened, setting off an alarm in the cabin. Crew members set about searching for the cause, but naturally failed to find any.

Meanwhile, many passengers looking out the aircraft windows spotted an unusually brilliant glow on the body surface and particularly on the engines as though each carried a lamp illuminating the way ahead through compressor blades, which created a stroboscopic effect. This glow came from electrified dust particles that had settled on the surface of engine nacelles and on the compressor blades.

At about 8:42 p.m. Jakarta time, engine No. 4 failed because of a flameout. The co-pilot and flight engineer went into the immediate procedure of shutting the engine down, cutting the fuel supply and, just in case, activating a fire-extinguishing system. In the meantime the commander handled the controls, trying to cope with uneven thrust.

The passengers also noticed long yellow glowing streaks emanating from the remaining engines. Less than a minute after shutting down engine No.4, there was a blowout in engine No.2, which also stopped.

Before the crew could initiate the process of cutting down the engine, there was a blowout in the remaining engines, No.1 and No.3, and the windshield went opaque. The flight engineer exclaimed: “I can’t believe it – all the engines have stopped.” It was at that moment that Eric Moody made the statement quoted at the beginning of the article – with a characteristically British sense of humor.

The heavy airliner headed back to Jakarta, hoping to make an emergency landing. But to reach the capital of Indonesia, it was necessary to re-start at least one engine. The alternative was ditching in the far from welcoming waters of the ocean filled with all kinds of dangers – high waves could make the rescue of the crew and passengers difficult, and strong currents could scatter the safety rafts far adrift, not to mention sharks.

An aircraft with a take-off weight of 380 tons became a glider. With the engines shut down, a Jumbo Jet (the nickname of the B-747) can glide 15 km per each kilometer in lost altitude. Commander Moody calculated that from an altitude of 11 km the airliner could glide for 23 minutes, covering a distance of 169 kilometers.

But the descent was more rapid. Air pressure in the cabin dropped: the cabin pressure compressors were driven by the engines which had stopped. Given these bleak realities, the plane was unlikely to negotiate the mountains and land in Jakarta. The crew began preparing to splashdown in the ocean.

The aircraft exited from an ash cloud at 8:56 p.m. Jakarta time, after about 13 minutes of gliding. At that point, it was at 12,000 feet in the air. At this height, the crew managed to fire one engine and then the three others (one engine, however, later went dead again when the Boeing climbed and reentered the cloud). The aircraft was able to successfully land in Jakarta.

The mechanics who broke down the engines found a great mass of molten ash in the turbines that had plugged the lines. All four engines had to be replaced.

Another volcanic incident also involved a Boeing-747, this time flown by KLM on the Amsterdam-Tokyo route. While on approach to Anchorage, Alaska, the airliner hit a cloud of ash spewed by the volcano Mt Redoubt. All four engines failed. But the aircraft captain, Karl van der Elst, managed to save the day – after descending more than 4,000 meters the crew succeeded in restarting the engines.

Both cases show the dangers of volcano eruptions for aircraft but in both cases the aircraft suddenly found themselves in dense ash clouds while in direct proximity to fire-spewing mountains where the concentration of hard particles was the highest.

At a considerable distance from a volcano, the ash concentration in the air falls off by many orders of magnitude, and such a large-scale closing of air space in Eurasia, following the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallojokull, is more reminiscent of hysteria than a real assessment of danger.

Seen against this background, the quiet operation of Russia’s Aeroflot, which continues its flights despite any volcanoes, is worth noting.

http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2010...oes-and-panic/

[D-Mack]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Here is a story of a British Airways B-747 that flew through a volcano unknowingly in 1982:
...

The documentary is running everyday on TV here

[Spartacus]

Re: Ash invisible and does this

Not at all.

What looks obvious to the writer, especially derivative humour that results from his own mental meanderings is RARELY obvious to readers.

That's why editors exist and self-published books and vanity publishers used to have such a bad reputation. Self indulgent thought processes building derivative upon derivative upon derivatives usually yields a tangled mess.

I think I have amply demonstrated by now that, at least for some of us wit-challenged nerds such as myself, whatever point you were making ... wasn't understood. Sorry.