CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

[skyson]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

Originally Posted by skyson
Was that your own observation, or the teaching of your military intelligence/strategy course? If your military/strategic planners recognize that approach, would that have any effects on your nation's future direction?

Sorry, It's a great question, but I am not a policy maker. (I hope to be one someday, but that is a long, LONG, LONG! time away, if ever).

I would ask Bernanke and Geithner that question, if you get the chance.

I was trying to clarify, if that observation is part of you military training, then your decision makers should have readily identified something very different from, and potentially detrimental to the US approach in international affairs.

What are your thoughts about this?

[jtabeb]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

Look, I know what you were asking, I was trying NOT to answer, OK? ( I most certainly did not want to be rude, and apologize if I appeared that way)

The reason is that I would be giving away information that I am not qualified to release. (It could be in the negative or in the affirmative, either way, I'd be commenting on something that I'm not qualified to comment on).

I can tell you that from the PERSONAL OPINION of Citizen JTABEB, obviously I think there could potentially be positive developments in the conduct of international affairs if such policy were given due consideration.

[jtabeb]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

1. Rule of sage king(Wang Dao):

"If a sage becomes king, his government is called one of kingly government. According to Mencius and later Confucianists, there are two kinds of government. One is that of the wang or (sage) king; the other is that of the pa or military lord. These are completely different in kind. The government of a sage-king is carried on through moral instruction and education; that of a military lord is conducted through force and compulsion. The power of the wang government is moral, that of the pa government, physical. Mencius says in this connection: "He who uses force in the place of virtue is a pa. He who is virtuous and practices human-heartedness is a wang. When one subdues men by force, they do not submit to him in their hearts but only outwardly, because they have insufficient strength to resist. But when one gains followers by virtue, they are pleased in their hearts and will submit of themselves as did the seventy disciples to Confucius."

MY Thoughts EXACTLY. A whole lot MORE "wang", And A whole lot LESS "pa".

(Universal Principles are Universal for a reason, you know?)

[touchring]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

"If a sage becomes king, his government is called one of kingly government. According to Mencius and later Confucianists, there are two kinds of government. One is that of the wang or (sage) king; the other is that of the pa or military lord. These are completely different in kind. The government of a sage-king is carried on through moral instruction and education; that of a military lord is conducted through force and compulsion. The power of the wang government is moral, that of the pa government, physical. Mencius says in this connection: "He who uses force in the place of virtue is a pa. He who is virtuous and practices human-heartedness is a wang. When one subdues men by force, they do not submit to him in their hearts but only outwardly, because they have insufficient strength to resist. But when one gains followers by virtue, they are pleased in their hearts and will submit of themselves as did the seventy disciples to Confucius."

The Confucianian state doesn't work in the long run, it works only initially, but fails within decades when greed sets in. It has been proven both in antiquity, middle ages, and modern day. The virtuous person is an ideal, and ideal that is. People become corrupted over time.

A democratic system will ensure that corrupted people are replaced without much bloodshed. In ancient China, this is done by civil war which often wipes out perhaps half the population through warfare and the resulting famine. After decades or even centuries of civil war, a king or emperor emerges, sometimes of humble peasantry background, e.g. Liu Bang of the Han dynasty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Gaozu_of_Han), thereafter followed a few decades of virtuous rule after which decay rapidly sets in. For Liu Bang, after his death, the wife became the ultimate despot in history (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empress_Dowager_L%C3%BC).

In ancient Korea, which is probably the only real Confucian state in all of history (more Confucian than ancient China, which is a more autocratic capitalist society rather than Confucian, an irony when Confucian originated from China), slavery and a caste system (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yangban) ensured that the people can't rebel successfully. Of course, while the Confucian Korean state of Joseon avoided the extremely deadly population halving Chinese civil wars, the caste system resulted in a highly suppressed majority and because of this, Confucian Korea was extremely weak.

[jtabeb]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

The Confucianian state doesn't work in the long run, it works only initially, but fails within decades when greed sets in. It has been proven both in antiquity, middle ages, and modern day. The virtuous person is an ideal, and ideal that is. People become corrupted over time.

.

Unaccountable People, that is. (Which is why you do indeed need a well informed and critical thinking populace).

The error is human greed, not the idea. And yes, practical realty and ideal realty SHOULD coalesce over time, not diverge. (why the heck else do we have "ideals").

It may be two steps forward and one step back, but moving forward is what we must strive for. (Two steps backward and one step forward is UNACCEPTABLE).

[touchring]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

Unaccountable People, that is. (Which is why you do indeed need a well informed and critical thinking populace).

The error is human greed, not the idea. And yes, practical realty and ideal realty SHOULD coalesce over time, not diverge. (why the heck else do we have "ideals").

It may be two steps forward and one step back, but moving forward is what we must strive for. (Two steps backward and one step forward is UNACCEPTABLE).

Confucianism is about social classes, the ruling class versus the populace, for it to work in the long run, the bulk of the populace must be ignorant and weak - lesser beings (such a society can never become a developed nation). If they know too much or have too much power, they will rebel and there will be chaos. This is the reason why China must have total control over the Internet, otherwise they will lose control of the population. Ironically, this may actually be the logical way since a suppressed people may still be better than civil war. But don't expect a feudal society to become a superpower, this will never happen in modern day.

Real democratic countries don't need such controls since grievances can always be address by free speech, elections and lobbying. 'Unaccountable people' will be thrown out after a term or two terms - since two terms are a max in democracies.

Confucianism is one aspect of feudalism, in fact, earlier, the Chinese communist were against all feudal thinking - since communism exhorts equality for all, but communism inevitably leads to dictatorship and a single man terrorizing the rest of the country is an even more nightmarish scenario than a feudal society with a dominant ruling class, as exemplified by Mao, Dear Leader Kim, Stalin and Adolf Hitler. ;)

[jtabeb]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

If they know too much or have too much power, they will rebel and there will be chaos. This is the reason why China must have total control over the Internet, otherwise they will lose control of the population.

False choice. Why would people rebel EVEN if they had too much power or knew too much IF their leaders were acting in a moral way and the people themselves were acting in a moral way.

The only REASON for people TO rebel would be if the ruling class did not act in a moral manner.

My definition of Moral Way is very simple, Win-Win, that's moral. Forced Win-Lose, that's immoral.

(Nobody bemoans a win-win situation, except the immoral).

[skyson]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

Confucianism is about social classes, the ruling class versus the populace, for it to work in the long run, the bulk of the populace must be ignorant and weak - lesser beings (such a society can never become a developed nation). If they know too much or have too much power, they will rebel and there will be chaos. This is the reason why China must have total control over the Internet, otherwise they will lose control of the population. Ironically, this may actually be the logical way since a suppressed people may still be better than civil war. But don't expect a feudal society to become a superpower, this will never happen in modern day.

Real democratic countries don't need such controls since grievances can always be address by free speech, elections and lobbying. 'Unaccountable people' will be thrown out after a term or two terms - since two terms are a max in democracies.

Confucianism is one aspect of feudalism, in fact, earlier, the Chinese communist were against all feudal thinking - since communism exhorts equality for all, but communism inevitably leads to dictatorship and a single man terrorizing the rest of the country is an even more nightmarish scenario than a feudal society with a dominant ruling class, as exemplified by Mao, Dear Leader Kim, Stalin and Adolf Hitler. ;)

You are confusing temporary political idealism with the long term wisdom of a civillization that survived through the ages. Confucianism is more than a ruling tool for the ruling class. "It is a complex system of moral, social, political, philosophical, and quasi-religious thought that has had tremendous influence on the culture and history of East Asia. It might be considered a state religion of some East Asian countries, because of governmental promotion of Confucian philosophies". Along with Mencius and other Chinese ancient thinkers, Confucian's wisdom have guided the Chinese people(and Asian) through the up and downs of history, in their daily life activities, political involvement, social development, and spiritual pursuing. These fruits of Chinese civillization continue to evolve and adapt to the modern age, and are still the essence of their "national psyche".

You said:"But don't expect a feudal society to become a superpower, this will never happen in modern day". Don't be so bold. It was a mere two hundred years ago, the feudal China had been "the superpower" for the most part of world history. Your statement is only true from late 18th centuray to present. In the future, I am not so sure. Mao destroyed the feudal system in 1949, and lead his country into a communism state. In the last 20 years, we have all witnessed that the current ruling class turned China into a "autocratic capitalism" society. How will that end? The judge is till out there.

Will democracy automactically lead to a prosperous society? There are 160 some "democratic states" out there, and I could arguably say only a handful of them are prosperous, like US, UK, and western Europe.

Are democratic societies necassarily more stable, because grievances are more easily addressed? Again, we need to look at that with some historical perspective. The longest feudal societies of China, like Qing, Ming, Tang, etc. had survived for 200-300 years before collapsing. How long has the British Empire lasted, and how long will the US Empire last? Not to mention the numerous civil unrests/wars, and world wars within and between these so-called "democratic states" in modern history.

I DO realize that the current governing idealism of China is not ideal, harmonic, and sustainable in the long run, but to brand it as an explosive society and call for an imminent revolution is misguided. From what I see, it is still functioning well, and could last a long time.

Again, the traditional wisdom of a civillization/people is very different from the ideas of that civillization/people at any given historical time. I believe the traditions of frugality, strong family bond, self-discipline, sacrifice of individual good to the common good, respect of elders, hard working, and emphasis of education have been holding the Chinese people up for the last 5000 years.

[touchring]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

You said:"But don't expect a feudal society to become a superpower, this will never happen in modern day". Don't be so bold. It was a mere two hundred years ago, the feudal China had been "the superpower" for the most part of world history.

China is not a superpower 200 years ago. The Qing in my opinion had never been strong relative to the rest of the world. The largest economy probably by virtue of the massive population, a major regional power, but definitely not a superpower, and not when the rulers are spending most of their energy trying to quell Han dissents.

However, China was a superpower during the earlier part of the Han Dynasty, during which it invented a lot of stuff and doubled its territory.

Mao destroyed the feudal system in 1949, and lead his country into a communism state. In the last 20 years, we have all witnessed that the current ruling class turned China into a "autocratic capitalism" society. How will that end? The judge is till out there.

In my opinion, Mao achieved little. If he had managed to reduce corruption he would have at least done something good. Deng converted China into an autocratic capitalistic society, this is an achievement even if not ideal, he and no one can possibility undo what Mao did within just a few decades.

I DO realize that the current governing idealism of China is not ideal, harmonic, and sustainable in the long run, but to brand it as an explosive society and call for an imminent revolution is misguided. From what I see, it is still functioning well, and could last a long time..

Economic bubble burst yes, but barring for the possibility of a repeat of WWII kind of military conflict or the CCP decides on its own to change the system, I see no possibility of a political revolution in China, regardless of the time line, and regardless of what happens to the economy. We have seen this happen in North Korea, one fifth of the people can be wiped out and there will still be no revolution.

Of course, no revolution does not mean that a country can become a superpower. Becoming a superpower will involve way more than just having a subservient population and harmonious society.

[jtabeb]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

There is an easy way to end this.

Both of you just have to answer two simple questions.

Who has been to China?
Who speaks Chinese?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

There is an easy way to end this.

Both of you just have to answer two simple questions.

Who has been to China?
Who speaks Chinese?

While that might resolve this matter, it's not a surefire remedy.

I know more than a few people who (1) have lived in the U.S. all their lives, and (2) speak only American English, whom I would not trust to be informed on matters of American history, politics, ethos or empire.

[jtabeb]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

You complete me (everytime).

Thanks ;)

[touchring]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

While that might resolve this matter, it's not a surefire remedy.

I know more than a few people who (1) have lived in the U.S. all their lives, and (2) speak only American English, whom I would not trust to be informed on matters of American history, politics, ethos or empire.

There's a popular Chinese saying, 旁观者清当局者迷, which Google translates to "Bystander, see the game better".

Anyway, this thread is about economic matters.

Latest news:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update1-.html

China Tightens Rules on Uncompleted Homes Sales (Update2)
April 20, 2010, 5:37 AM EDT
More From Businessweek

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- China ordered developers not to take deposits for sales of uncompleted apartments without proper approval and barred them from charging “abnormally high” prices, stepping up efforts to prevent a property bubble.

Developers must disclose to the public all apartments available and prices, and start selling within 10 days of getting pre-sale approval, the Ministry of Housing and Urban- Rural Development said in a statement today. It vowed to punish developers that “artificially” create supply shortages.

The focus on developers’ sales tactics adds to curbs on loans for third-home purchases, increased down payment requirements and higher mortgage rates announced in the past week. China’s cabinet has said stricter measures to control speculation are needed after property prices in 70 cities jumped a record 11.7 percent in March.

“It will have some impact curbing prices if implemented effectively,” said Li Shaoming, a Beijing-based analyst at China Jianyin Investment Securities Co. “Tax policies may follow if those measure fail to produce evident effects.”

The SE Shang Property Index of 34 Chinese developers slid 2.2 percent, extending this year’s decline to 19 percent.

Developers who fail to start selling within the required time, price homes at “abnormally high” levels, or “artificially” create supply shortages by faking sale contracts, will be “severely” punished, according to the statement. The government has repeatedly said developers can’t hoard land or intentionally delay sales to speculate on further price gains.

Push Waves

Agents are banned from practices including spreading false information and hyping up sales by hiring people to pretend they are buyers, the statement said. Such practices “pushed the waves” in the rapid property price gains, Li said.

China Vanke Co., the nation’s biggest property developer, dropped 3.3 percent at the 3 p.m. close in Shanghai, extending this year’s decline to 26 percent. Gemdale Corp. fell 3.4 percent.

The requirement that developers must disclose prices of all apartments and start to sell in 10 days of obtaining pre-sale approval will likely cool prices should it be implemented properly, Li said. Developers tend to control the pace of supply and reserve some apartments, possibly in better locations, to sell at higher prices later, she added.

Higher Mortgages

Local regulators must grant pre-sale approval to at least one entire building rather than some units or floors, according to today’s statement. Buyers’ names can’t be changed after the subscriptions, the statement said.

Chinese banks should stop loans for third-home purchases and suspend lending to buyers who can’t provide tax returns or provide proof of social security contributions, the State Council, the nation’s cabinet, said in an April 17 statement. Local governments can limit the number of units that can be bought, while senior officials will be held responsible for failing to stabilize property prices, the statement said.

Two days earlier the government raised mortgage rates and down payment ratios for second home purchases after the record jump in home prices in March. Buyers purchasing their second homes must pay at least a 50 percent deposit, up from 40 percent, and interest rates should be at least 1.1 times benchmark rates, the State Council said in a separate April 15 statement.

Jun Ma, Deutsche Bank AG’s Greater China chief economist, branded the moves the “the most draconian measures on the property market in history.”

Haikou, Sanya

Haikou and Sanya, cities on the southern island of Hainan, led the 70 cities that posted the biggest jumps in property prices in March. Overall real estate prices in Haikou, Hainan’s capital city, jumped 53.9 percent, while Sanya, which has hosted the Miss World beauty pageant, followed with a 52.1 percent increase, the National Bureau of Statistics said April 14.

[skyson]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

China is not a superpower 200 years ago. The Qing in my opinion had never been strong relative to the rest of the world. The largest economy probably by virtue of the massive population, a major regional power, but definitely not a superpower, and not when the rulers are spending most of their energy trying to quell Han dissents.

However, China was a superpower during the earlier part of the Han Dynasty, during which it invented a lot of stuff and doubled its territory..

OK, I misused the word "superpower". Maybe the "strongest power" would be appropriate.

However, Tang Dynasty also could fit into the category of "superpower", because it was in the period of time, the Chinese culture spread into neighboring countries, for example, Japan basically copied the language, social system, and other cutural traditions from China, to build their own nation.

In my opinion, Mao achieved little. If he had managed to reduce corruption he would have at least done something good. Deng converted China into an autocratic capitalistic society, this is an achievement even if not ideal, he and no one can possibility undo what Mao did within just a few decades..

I strongly disagree with you on this one. Mao was a visionary leader and great strategist and thinker. He is one of those genius that would only shine once in a few centuries. Despite the western propoganda, many Chinese people still see him a god like figure.

Mao is the father of modern China, and Deng is trailing far behind.

Economic bubble burst yes, but barring for the possibility of a repeat of WWII kind of military conflict or the CCP decides on its own to change the system, I see no possibility of a political revolution in China, regardless of the time line, and regardless of what happens to the economy. We have seen this happen in North Korea, one fifth of the people can be wiped out and there will still be no revolution.

Of course, no revolution does not mean that a country can become a superpower. Becoming a superpower will involve way more than just having a subservient population and harmonious society.

I see it differently. Revolution or evolution, the Chinese political landscape will change as the economy develope. Once the middle class strong enough, their demand will be heard, like in Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand.

There is an easy way to end this.

Both of you just have to answer two simple questions.

Who has been to China?
Who speaks Chinese?

Well, I was born and raised in China. Touchring is from Singapore, where 72% of population are Chinese dicsents, and one of the official language is Chinese!

So you have set the bar too low.

[a warren]

Re: CNN: On some luxury resort developments, prices went up 60 percent in two weeks.

I have just come back from 2 weeks in Shanghai. My observations:
The people are good humoured. You can walk anywhere day and night and not feel threatened at all. The construction boom is on a staggering scale. Things are being built for the sake of building rather than for any obvious purpose. There is an inferiority complex in that people feel Shanghai is inferior to Hong Kong and other (slightly) more westernised cities. Expo may fix this.
The air and water pollution is also staggering in scale, but I suspect it could be cleaned up quickly if the community decided to clean it up.
Generally I would say China is adopting the worst from the west, industrialism, greed, excess consumerism, agri business and fatty sugary fast food, and disregarding the best from their own culture, Confuscianism, art, medicine, farming systems and religion.
I put the possibility of a building bubble collapse at 95% and the liklihood of revolution at 0%.