Italy, Japan reach grid parity

[c1ue]

Re: Italy, Japan reach grid parity

Your point is what? We should continue business as usual?

My point is quite simple: just because a technology sounds cool doesn't mean it actually changes anything.

Solar certainly has that capability, but thus far it has yet to either demonstrate the actual displacement of conventional energy generation or an impact on overall conventional energy usage despite billions in subsidies.

Whatever your reason for doing so, alternative energy must demonstrate this capability.

The experiences in Europe are sobering.

This doesn't mean the effort is unworthy, but it does mean that solar isn't a magic wand that will somehow fix even a small part of the energy conundrum.

Throwing billions of dollars at it without soberly assessing the results is foolish.

[Ghent12]

Re: Italy, Japan reach grid parity

Ah, this is really complicated.

20 years ago, almost no one had air conditioning; now it is quite common.

The entire west side of Oahu was sparsely populated; now, it is half of the city. It is really hot out on the west side, and many people complain about 200 to 300 dollar air conditioning bills.

In order to come to any kind of conclusion, you would have to not look at a few tables. You would have to actually watch in detail what happened over the last 30 years.

Personally, my dad's electric bill went from $4,000 a year to $150 dollars a year because he installed a solar water heater and photovoltaics. My mom's house is about the same. Our neighbors complain that their electric bills are 200 to 300 dollars a month.

The point of my original post is that these things are REALLY complicated. This is why you cannot pull out a table and conclude anything about global warming, for example. It takes several thousand hours of time.

What one needs to do if one wants to guess about outcomes like this is learn about the factors involved.

Hawai'i still has a low utilization of air conditioning systems. Maybe the upscale hotels and apartments use them, as does newer upscale housing, but from my experience it seems that if you ask about a/c in a hotel the staff usually says, "Why would you need a/c? It's Hawai'i." Same with pretty much all rental properties that I looked at.

That being said, Hawai'i is one of the few locations where PV can actually make sense on a case-by-case basis. Good, reliable access to sun (except for a few weeks in Spring on occasion), highest energy costs of anywhere in the country, etc. etc.

[mooncliff]

Re: Italy, Japan reach grid parity

I'm not sure what your point is.

You have an anecdote which shows a massive decrease in grid usage of electricity due to solar installation.

You similarly have stated the 25% of the island uses PV for at least some of its electricity use - e.g. hot water heating.

Ah, no, there is a misunderstanding here. Did I mistype something or write something in a vague way?
25% of the residential hot water on Oahu is produced by solar hot water heaters like this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Di...larSystems.jpg

This does NOT mean people are using photovoltaics to make electricity to run hot water heaters. That would be really expensive and inefficient.
They are making hot water directly, so you use no fossil fuel energy most of the time (or a small amount to run a recirculating pump; ours are thermosiphon, so use no energy; we flip a switch for a few day now and then when it is exceptionally cloudy for extended periods... normally one hour of full sun is enough to heat the entire tank because our tap water is not very cold to begin with and the sunlight is fierce).

Why is "anecdote" a dirty word? I think of what we did to our houses as prototypes. We did it early because our energy costs are high and we have a lot of sunlight.
Adjusted for inflation, the cost of a solar water heater comparable to ones we installed 30 years ago is less than half, so the payback period is progressively shortening. Even now, a $5,000 solar water heater will, after tax credits, cost less than $3,000, and will cut the electric bill by $1,000 per year. Isn't that like a 30% rate of return on investment, no tax?

A "cool roof" blocks heat from entering a building and costs less than half of a regular roof, so can cut your air conditioning cost by $1,000+ per year.
A solar water heater in Hawaii cuts electricity use by about a $1,000 per year in a sunny area.
I contacted the Department of Education and asked why GoogleMaps shows that all the roofs of the schools are black while they are complaining about how much the air conditioning costs, and now I see white elastomeric roofs being applied to neighborhood schools. I think these three things, cool roofs, solar water heaters, and photovoltaics, will go from being anecdotal to being common and boring within a few years.

To update the original post, I think the link expired. Maybe this one will work. There are lots of interesting graphs.
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article...100326/181377/

And now grid parity has come even closer because the Greece crash is causing Spain to cancel photovoltaic plans. The glut is going be huge... prices should crash even faster than suggested by the article above.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update1-.html
Before the end of the year, while there is liquidation, but before stimulus runs out, could be an opportunity.

[c1ue]

Re: Italy, Japan reach grid parity

Ah, no, there is a misunderstanding here. Did I mistype something or write something in a vague way?
25% of the residential hot water on Oahu is produced by solar hot water heaters like this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filei...larSystems.jpg

This does NOT mean people are using photovoltaics to make electricity to run hot water heaters. That would be really expensive and inefficient.

Not sure which part of what I said is wrong: prior to solar water heating, water heating was performed via electrical water heaters as natural gas is not available on Oahu. 25% of households now use solar water heaters instead. (source from mooncliff)

The previous usage of electricity for water heating now replaced in 25% of households should be reflected in overall electricity usage for Oahu.

The statistics I put up seem to indicate that there is little if any difference in the rate of growth of electricity use in Oahu as compared to the US overall. There is some difference, but then again it is difficult to say if it is due to solar water heaters or simply because electricity prices in Hawaii are 2x or 3x higher than in the US on average.

The use of solar water heaters therefore has not apparently had any impact on overall electricity usage.

At no point did I say that PV was being used to create electricity for water heating - I think.

Why is "anecdote" a dirty word?

Anecdote is not a dirty word. But there is a difference between an understanding of systemic behavior vs. a individual or even a group of individual's understanding.