california pension troubles

[vinoveri]

Re: california pension troubles

extend, pretend, bail-out, repeat,

I'd wager that this thread is dead and gone long before anyone comes across and tries to post a news story that California significantly cut its pension benefits (that is has done it, not says it will) or that it has defaulted.

How many more years of bail-outs will we have to witness before the it sinks in that the shell CONfidence game can go on a long long time w/o consequence.

Yes, there will be great consequence, someday (but no time soon enough I'm afraid to prevent the collapse) and when it comes, I predict it will come relatively quickly, and things will change fast, but again, not for a good long while (years) yet.

As the population wakes up to scam slowly, recognizes the injustice, fraud and lies, and that the social contract has been broken, and everyone is out for their own and what they can loot from the system before it goes under, then you will see the acceleration of the decline .... oh, I wish I were wrong, God help us.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: california pension troubles

...As the population wakes up to scam slowly, recognizes the injustice, fraud and lies, and that the social contract has been broken, and everyone is out for their own and what they can loot from the system before it goes under, then you will see the acceleration of the decline .....

That is what I find interesting. While the swindled geezers may be harmless socially and politically, their children and grandchildren are unlikely to fall for the same bait-and-switch.

[jpatter666]

Re: california pension troubles

Hi AG. Good thread; glad to see you posting.

I think you're right that some of them will. I like the idea that folks with some initiative would pull up stakes and strike out for a new land of opportunity, just like those who currently immigrate to America (and those who did so in the past).

I guess that might not reduce the tax base by much immediately, or have much impact upon the ratio of workers to retired, but more likely would slow the rate of innovation and growth of new businesses. Positive feedback with negative consequences for economic growth.

But where do you think these talented and hard-working folks might go? Would they take me with them, and could I find a job once I got there? :confused:

Is there a low-tax country with socially liberal and fiscally conservative politics and the rule of law, where I could enjoy a more secure life and higher standard of living than the US (that is, after our looming fiscal problems hit), and which would allow me to immigrate and become a legal citizen?

We wonder the same thing with one huge caveat -- if the US implodes, might it take just about everyone else with it?

That said, we have been looking hard at Latin American countries. My wife is perfectly fluent (and trying to teach me -- hard job that ;)). It's amusing when we travel because *I'm* the one who looks Latino/Anglo/European and when we travel I get all the questions in the local language -- but it's my gringa (blond/blue-eyed) wife who is the linguist.

[we_are_toast]

Re: california pension troubles

as always - interesting post Ash - but won't the really talented, hard working decide just to up and leave?

Anytime there are mass migrations of people, it creates problems for both the area that is abandoned and the area the migrants move to. California was a recipient of a migration during the last depression and they ended up stopping people at the border to try and prevent the increased pressure on the local resources and services. The housing market will continue to suffer as the migrants try to dump their houses, while new local bubbles will be created as the migrants move into an area with a wad of cash to drop on much cheaper housing.

As California's problems continue to worsen, even a small % migration from the largest state to communities across the country is going to create yet another problem that will spread across the land.