Latest Contrary Investor

[oddlots]

A good head-clearing, nose-in-the-data piece from Contrary Investor:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16287.htm

... with perhaps a suggestion as to the catalyst for the next leg of the gold market...

[Master Shake]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

A good head-clearing, nose-in-the-data piece from Contrary Investor:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16287.htm

... with perhaps a suggestion as to the catalyst for the next leg of the gold market...

A well-researched analysis. Seems like the outcome is either the Fed continues to monetize or we enter the mother of all depressions. No way they opt for the latter.

[Minion]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

A good head-clearing, nose-in-the-data piece from Contrary Investor:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16287.htm

... with perhaps a suggestion as to the catalyst for the next leg of the gold market...

Speaking of contrarians..... remember when Buffet, right after the Dow crash, recommended buying stocks? It would have gained 50-100% in a year. Even before I got into investing I was contemplating gambling on BA for $5 a share (would have tripled). The few advocates of shorting the banks and market in general, in mid 2008, were scoffed at.

At this time it seems a "gold is in a bubble" sentiment is brewing out there. You, being a contrarian, would buy gold?

[oddlots]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

Speaking of contrarians..... remember when Buffet, right after the Dow crash, recommended buying stocks? It would have gained 50-100% in a year. Even before I got into investing I was contemplating gambling on BA for $5 a share (would have tripled). The few advocates of shorting the banks and market in general, in mid 2008, were scoffed at.

At this time it seems a "gold is in a bubble" sentiment is brewing out there. You, being a contrarian, would buy gold?

I'm not sure I would argue it as a contrarian play. But I do think the gold is in a bubble talk is rubbish. (There's a lot of arguments that could be wheeled out, but perhaps, most simply: how do you have a bubble in something that suffers under an absolutely punishing tax regime as gold does in the US?)

But I think you'll be disappointed if you think gold will "give you a triple" or whatever. Gold is just a barometer. It's for preserving wealth not creating it.

[Minion]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

I'm not sure I would argue it as a contrarian play. But I do think the gold is in a bubble talk is rubbish. (There's a lot of arguments that could be wheeled out, but perhaps, most simply: how do you have a bubble in something that suffers under an absolutely punishing tax regime as gold does in the US?)

But I think you'll be disappointed if you think gold will "give you a triple" or whatever. Gold is just a barometer. It's for preserving wealth not creating it.

It has tripled in the past 10 years.

Also, notwithstanding the silver insider manipulation, what if China's saving population decides they are better off holding silver than bank accounts?

http://www.moneymorning.com/publishe...PSSIL02101.pdf

[oddlots]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

Yes I know. But it is worth recognizing there's a difference between nominal and real gains, no?

[Minion]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

Yes I know. But it is worth recognizing there's a difference between nominal and real gains, no?

True, pricing everything in gold (as it appears to be becoming an alternative world currency) changes the picture.

Most stock charts from the past few years have a big dent in fall 08, then long (but strong) recovery. Gold never got the dent, just kept climbing. Fascinating stuff!

[ltullos]

Re: Latest Contrary Investor

A good head-clearing, nose-in-the-data piece from Contrary Investor:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16287.htm

... with perhaps a suggestion as to the catalyst for the next leg of the gold market...

I've been expecting to see large write-offs of the worthless debt by the banks, without consciously realizing that the Fed and Treasury are doing this for them with Gross & his cohorts at GS & JPM doing the laundry. So for me the big questions are:

(1) when they conclude the economy has recovered enough to start shifting these writedowns to the private sector, how will they likely float the trial balloons to check, and
(2) who will have to bear the brunt of this? I suspect it won't be GS & JPM.