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In another thread, the US has finally determined that the undulating plateau in oil supply/demand will be in 2011 or thereabouts. Maybe a bit later, but SOON. Now that 2030 became 2020 and is now 2011, it is hard to see it coming much sooner. I am relieved they got on it just in time. :-)
But that peak in cheap oil is but the start of a lot of different peak constraints. Richard Heinberg's Life After Growth references the 1972 "Limits to Growth" that I read as a recent college grad and that we discussed on occasion in grad school. So, to say that any of this is a surprise requires that I forget an awful lot. Oh, the details were off, as anything written almost 40 years ago might be, but the concepts are dead on. More Heinberg is here.
Now, in Britain, there are Transition Towns starting. A Transition Handbook is in the works. I have always found the survivalist approach to the upcoming troubles to be lacking. So, if I survive, who will I have for playmates? Who will have the skills I need to solve a problem? The whole survivalist mentality always seemed lacking a follow-on plan once all these individuals survived.
The idea that towns get together and plan their own survival is a powerful idea that appeals to the social makeup of humanity. That said, the whole topic of Transition Towns seems immensely disturbing to many who say that they set their sights too low, that they seek to see the world collapse while their little Utopia survives, and even that they will gleefully watch as humanity dies off. I think that is the wrong viewpoint. Instead, I think that they will be the ants who prepare for the coming troubles while the denialist and survivalist grasshoppers will continue to argue why it is not a problem, or why their AK-47 and gold will see them through, or will dismiss it with "Too many monkeys on the rock.", knowing their position in society guarantees their survival. IMHO it looks like a difference between the political right - every man for himself, and the left - let's work it out and use our wisdom to survive as a town and as a society. For me, it is a hopeful development, something I can embrace without reservations, and something that, in decades to come, will mark the difference between towns that thrive and towns that don't.
As I look at the slow motion trainwrecks that each of the peaks will produce it seems that those who have thought and prepared themselves and their neighbors will still be able to have enjoyable satisfying lives. None of the peaks is catastrophic, the market will price the shortage, people will have to adapt, and those who don't or can't will suffer. Those who figure out how to feed, clothe, heat, and care for themselves will be able to do so as others find the cost prohibitive. Those who have not prepared will have to get a move on and I hope they can reach some viable solutions too.
As an example, for me, I am not worried yet about peak cheap oil. I designed my future lifestyle around $250/bbl oil, and last time I checked there was more available at that price than I could ever want. It is a reassuring form of individual security, though many people think me crazy. Right now, gas and oil are a bargain but I when it breaks $200-225 I will need to reassess my plans and see if further actions will be needed.
But that peak in cheap oil is but the start of a lot of different peak constraints. Richard Heinberg's Life After Growth references the 1972 "Limits to Growth" that I read as a recent college grad and that we discussed on occasion in grad school. So, to say that any of this is a surprise requires that I forget an awful lot. Oh, the details were off, as anything written almost 40 years ago might be, but the concepts are dead on. More Heinberg is here.
Now, in Britain, there are Transition Towns starting. A Transition Handbook is in the works. I have always found the survivalist approach to the upcoming troubles to be lacking. So, if I survive, who will I have for playmates? Who will have the skills I need to solve a problem? The whole survivalist mentality always seemed lacking a follow-on plan once all these individuals survived.
Hopkins writes: "Rebuilding local agriculture and food production, localizing energy production, rethinking healthcare, rediscovering local building materials in the context of zero energy building, rethinking how we manage waste, all build resilience and offer the potential of an extraordinary renaissance—economic, cultural and spiritual."
As I look at the slow motion trainwrecks that each of the peaks will produce it seems that those who have thought and prepared themselves and their neighbors will still be able to have enjoyable satisfying lives. None of the peaks is catastrophic, the market will price the shortage, people will have to adapt, and those who don't or can't will suffer. Those who figure out how to feed, clothe, heat, and care for themselves will be able to do so as others find the cost prohibitive. Those who have not prepared will have to get a move on and I hope they can reach some viable solutions too.
As an example, for me, I am not worried yet about peak cheap oil. I designed my future lifestyle around $250/bbl oil, and last time I checked there was more available at that price than I could ever want. It is a reassuring form of individual security, though many people think me crazy. Right now, gas and oil are a bargain but I when it breaks $200-225 I will need to reassess my plans and see if further actions will be needed.
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