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Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

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  • Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

    Thoughts?

    First, let your greed overcome all regard for the stability of the global market, and overcome your aversion to illegal activities. Stay away from people like me, and fly under the radar, because I'd like to see you thrown in jail. Most Washington officials, regulators, and Wall Street managers are probably safe to hang around, especially if you cut them in for a piece of the action or give them vague promises of a future lucrative job.

    Pump up the gold story. Get your friends to tell retail investors to buy some gold every month. Get your buddies in the financial business to offer exchange traded gold funds (ETFs) that claim to buy physical gold. This will sound safe to retail investors, but in fact, the ETFs are very risky. This will serve your purpose when you are ready to start a panic. These particular ETFs will allow the "gold" to be commingled with the custodian's gold, and the custodian can lease out the gold. Moreover, the "gold" custodian can give it to a sub custodian that the manager doesn't know. The sub custodian can give it to yet another sub custodian unknown to the original custodian. The manager will never audit the gold, and the gold is not "allocated" to a particular investor. Since this is an "exchange traded" gold fund, investors will probably assume the gold is regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but it isn't. By the time investors wake up to the probability that there is very little actual gold backing their investment, your plan will be ready to execute.
    Now you are ready to execute your plan.*

    Step 1: Let everyone in the futures markets know you are buying gold, speculating in gold, and want to take physical delivery. It helps that China openly announced it wants to increase its gold reserves; the market isn't looking too hard at you. At first, act like you're naïve. Buy on margin and pyramid up by reinvesting your profits when you have them.

    Step 2: Get the banks to let you finance your gold.

    Step 3: Book up all of the space at gold refiners, so that no one else can do it. Buy as many gold mines as possible.

    Step 4: Create credit derivatives contracts that give you the option to ask for your pay-off in gold.

    Step 5: Pick the future month to make your big move. You will go long gold futures and demand physical delivery.

    Step 6: Secretly and habitually start making some large early purchases in non-U.S. markets. That way, when the U.S. markets open, gold should follow the upward trend.

    Step 7: The bullion banks and dealers that have over-hedged their physical gold with short positions will now be squeezed and have to make margin calls. Offer to cancel some of your forward contracts in exchange for early delivery of gold. This will temporarily relieve the bullion dealers' pain on their short positions, and give you control over even more of the gold supply.

    Step 8: You and you friends have pinched off the gold supply and control most of the free gold supply having locked it up in your own vaults and warehouses. You are all long a lot of futures contracts, and you will all demand physical delivery. You now have the naked shorts exactly where you want them.

    Step 9: Rely on bankruptcy and bailouts to get what you want. Normally, you would be afraid that you would never get paid, because your demands would bankrupt the naked shorts. But the naked shorts are likely to be unwary hedge funds or other sophisticated investors, and no one cares if you bankrupt them. Other naked shorts are likely to be the bullion banks, and they are all being bailed out by the Central Banks who will lend them what little gold they have left and then beg the IMF for whatever they have.

    China is a wild card. If it is not part of your scheme and decides to lend its gold, it could dampen your profits or even upset your short squeeze. But China may not want to help out your victims. Why should they? If China buys enough gold mines and increases its reserves enough, it may be in its interest to befriend you. Your combined ownership will have made the futures markets irrelevant. Together you will not only have cornered the gold market, you will have cornered gold.

    Note: This post was shortened and adopted from a longer article distributed by Tavakoli Structured Finance, "How to Corner the Gold Market," March 30, 2010.
    * The Hunt brothers used a similar earlier strategy in an attempt to corner the silver market in 1979-80 as recounted by Stephen Fay in The Great Silver Bubble (Coronet, 1982).
    Janet Tavakoli's book on the causes of the global financial meltdown and how to fix it is Dear Mr. Buffett: What an Investor Learns 1,269 Miles from Wall Street.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-..._b_518800.html


  • #2
    Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

    Could someone lay the circumstances by which the gold ETFs collapse given the scenario laid out by Tavakoli?

    Imagine the gold price skyrocketing because someone is cornering the market as Tavakoli speculates.

    The people running GLD assure us that the gold backing the ETF is in the vaults. They don't do audits, but they tell us it's there.

    There's no ability to redeem shares of GLD for physical gold, so there's no way that investors in GLD can force their hand. The managers of GLD assure us that the gold IS there; nothing to worry about, they say soothingly.

    OK. So what makes the value of GLD fall through the floor as the price of gold skyrockets? Why wouldn't the price of GLD just continue on up as well?

    What series of events or mechanism would reveal GLD to be a fraud, if it is? (I ask this as someone who has money invested in GLD.)

    I'm just not clear on what would bring it and the other gold ETFs down if there's no redemption. I suppose if word got around that GLD's custodian had lent the gold out, and couldn't get it back, that that would do it...but can GLD legally loan its gold out? What market mechanism would lead to GLD collapsing? Tavakoli skims over this, as far as I can tell.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

      Originally posted by gnk View Post
      Thoughts?



      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-..._b_518800.html

      National Policy at work, Sanctioned activity.

      100-1 leverage in the paper gold market.

      Hmm, Krakatoa, perhaps?

      (Before)
      [media]http://www.damninteresting.net/content/300pxKrakatoa_01.JPG[/media]
      (After)
      [media]http://img.youtube.com/vi/UWqCMGHGY7Q/0.jpg[/media]

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

        Any plan that concludes with shoving a loss up the collective ass of naked shorts has my vote.

        Look at the banks (and their PM derivative positions) that administer GLD and SLV along with their prospectus. This sham is the worst kept secret on wall st. I'm surprised you haven't read much about it?
        How many times have you read not to hold paper gold promises this year alone?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

          Originally posted by Mn_Mark View Post
          Could someone lay the circumstances by which the gold ETFs collapse given the scenario laid out by Tavakoli?

          Imagine the gold price skyrocketing because someone is cornering the market as Tavakoli speculates.
          I can imagine a lot of things but that scenario is way out there in long tail land.

          Step one is buying on margin and pyramiding up for crying out loud. He is just waiting for a big guy to come and squeeze him to death then rub him out like a used cigarette.

          Step two is getting banks to finance him. These are the same guys that are a counter party to his attempt to corner gold. He have just given them the motivation and the means to ruin him.

          Step four only works if he can find a sucker. Somebody will take his money since they are planing on strangling him with his own leverage anyway.

          Really, that whole article reads like amateur hour. It is fantasy porn for gold bugs. But hey, anything can happen right?
          Last edited by radon; March 30, 2010, 06:24 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

            Originally posted by gnk
            Step 1: Let everyone in the futures markets know you are buying gold, speculating in gold, and want to take physical delivery. It helps that China openly announced it wants to increase its gold reserves; the market isn't looking too hard at you. At first, act like you're naïve. Buy on margin and pyramid up by reinvesting your profits when you have them.
            Periodically prod private and institutional investors into hoarding more physical gold:
            • Encourage private citizens to own gold (China)
            • Announce you're buying gold (China, India)
            • Announce you've found tungsten stuffed bars (Oct 2009)
            • Assist GATA in exposing gold & silver COMEX fraud before the CFTC (Mar 2010)
            • Send thank-you notes to jtabeb (ongoing)
            Most folks are good; a few aren't.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

              Was Tavakoli's maiden name Hunt?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                Originally posted by Mn_Mark View Post
                Could someone lay the circumstances by which the gold ETFs collapse
                Only "Authorized Participants", which are a few of the world's largest banks we love and trust so much, can cash in their GLD shares for a "basket" of the physical gold behind that basket. See http://www.goldensextant.com/GLD.html for a list of these participants as of June 2007.

                My guess would be that this goes down rather like the Mortgage Backed Security market went down. The big guys know this will blow up sooner or later, so do their best to arrange things so that (1) one of their less lucky brethren (such as Lehman or Bear-Stearns previously) takes the hit of the initial blast and (2) Uncle Sam backstops the remaining survivors. Then said big guy gets secretly short GLD with a real physical gold backstop and publicly explodes confidence in GLD, decoupling its price from physical gold. GLD prices are crushed, real gold shoots up.

                Just as the MBS bailout was the primary trigger for the bank bailout, the gold bailout might be the primary trigger for some sort of Bretton Woods III reworking of the international monetary system, in which case, the almighty Dollar would quite possibly be racing GLD shares to the bottom.
                Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                  Originally posted by radon View Post
                  It is fantasy porn for gold bugs.
                  Good, cause I'm getting a woody.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                    Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                    Good, cause I'm getting a woody.
                    See it's working. Here is the centerfold:



                    Cheers!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                      I don't care about this noise. IMHO, manipulation just increases volatility in the gold market, maybe adds some short-term distortions to the long-term trend. The long-term trend is up. Whenever gold crashes, I buy some more. AMOF, most of my investment cash flow comes from speculation in GLD and the gold miners. All this just helps me.

                      No matter manipulation, it cannot divorce the price of physical gold from the paper gold for the long or even medium term. The trend is up. Buy the dips and sell the rallies.

                      I am really grateful to the manipulators and their central bank buddies for allowing me to accumulate some PM-related positions at an incredibly low price. Granted, I do less of it now (did most of it before 2006), but I absolutely love this predictability. Most of my gains in 2009 were from trading deep in the money calls on GLD and gold miners. I buy less of the shares themselves now, they are just as speculative as options anyway.
                      медведь

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                      • #12
                        Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                        I'm thinking James Bond type plots and of course, a villain and his "gold."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                          I've read the Tavakoli piece a couple of times and I really just find it puzzling. Odd in its tone. Odd in its logic. She is worthy of a lot of respect IMHO so I think it's worth trying to puzzle out what she's saying.

                          The new element - to me at least, but I'm a bit slow when it comes to understanding the nefarious, and it's not from dint of trying - is the notion that the, in extremis, cash-settled ETF world of paper gold claims is to be used to a) discredit gold as an asset class among the great unwashed while simultaneously b) using the bankruptcy threat that results as a lever to force Central Banks, IMF, gold hedgers to cough up their physical holdings in defense of the financial system.

                          Now that's nefarious!

                          I'm tempted to re-read it again but I think somehow it's best not to get to caught up in the details and squint hard.

                          First, I remember reading an article way back to the effect that the ETF's accept from counterparties cash settlement in lieu of physical. I remember thinking: that's contrary to the whole apparent point of owning it. The ETF's are a way of counterfeiting gold, making it simply another "financial asset" as that Goldman rep Christian from the CFTC hearings would have it.

                          The point here is that I don't find anything particularly contentious about her claim that the role of the gold etf's is to cut the ground from underneath gold as the anti-matter to money (i.e., debt) creation by imposing on it a version of fractional reserve accounting.

                          What I do find kind of amazing is the idea that the ETF's could literally be bankrupted at precisely the moment that the physical market would be - apparently in secret - soaring. The amount of control required to pull that off would seem on it's face impossible, even assuming the co-operation of every central bank in the world. I know the gold market - bullion, mining shares etc is tiny, but really...

                          Gotta think more about this but what does make sense to me is...

                          - the gold etfs are highly suspect in the current environment (I can see the world's CBs tolerating a gold market but can't see why they would allow the ETFs unless they represented a way to nullify gold's real role. I think the prospectus' of these things bear out this conclusion. Cash settled gold: your parachutes will be handed out at the de-briefing after the jump. Good luck gentlemen!)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                            http://www.zerohedge.com/article/for...per-gold-ponzi

                            The guy asking the stupid questions is Gensler, head of the CFTC ex-Goldman. The guy on the video link is some guy speaking absolute nonsense yet getting people to nod their head.

                            What Janet T is talking about taken into in context to what the about link is discussing makes real sense.

                            For those who are not aware JPM has shorted 25% of the world's silver production and 15% of gold on the Comex. Positions that they took over from Bear Stearns.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Tavakoli: How to Corner the Gold Market

                              What Tavakoli is saying is much less interesting that why she's saying it.
                              It's Economics vs Thermodynamics. Thermodynamics wins.

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