Incipient Health Care Bubble?

[Stroebel]

Does anyone see any possibility of a new bubble rising out of healthcare reform?

http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/2009/1...lels-with.html

I don't know much about the healthcare industry, except that it appears to be hugely profitable and apparently recession-resistant. Won't the new law reinforce this trend?

Perhaps I am just prone to "bubble-vision" at this point. The prolonged liquidity rally is certainly giving me unpleasant flashbacks to 2002-2003 . . .

[MulaMan]

Re: Incipient Health Care Bubble?

30 million new customers right away so short term, more of everything will be needed - nurses, GPs, clinics, ... NOT a bubble, just growth that will stay.

Long term, Health Insurace firm profits should plumet as these are monopolies with excessive pricing built in - unless you believe thier CEOs all over Fox and CNN for the last month.

I'm going short (puts) of the mega health care firms, they are over the top miss-managed, more inefficient then the government running health care by an order of magnitude.

In fact, it is only through building huge pyramid schemes and capture of political regulation that allow CEOs make 100 million a year, not through good management.

If competition can be restored in these industries then smaller firms will eat these big slow fish for breafast, lunch, and diner. They would have not hope in the competitive health care market that Obama is trying to get put in place - current bill does not go far enough - too many retarded Americans bought into the $100 million anti-American, anti-Obama campaign launched over the last few months.

[Stroebel]

Re: Incipient Health Care Bubble?

The 90s Internet Bubble grew out of seemingly limitless dreams of increasing productivity and profit. The 00s Housing Bubble grew out of Wall Street financial "innovation."

I'm having a hard time seeing a similar speculative avenue with healthcare, but I can't shake the feeling that this is a possibility.

Bottom line, I find it hard to believe that the health care law would have passed at all if insurance companies were not going to profit from it.

[radon]

Re: Incipient Health Care Bubble?

Bottom line, I find it hard to believe that the health care law would have passed at all if insurance companies were not going to profit from it.

Of course they will profit from it, they wrote much of it themselves.

You won't find much supply materializing. Low margin practices are barely profitable as it is. Quite a few people are planing on leaving medicine in the next few years because the economics don't work out. I think people will be surprised at how much money the insurance companies get, and how little will filter through to the people who actually provide the services.

The US Navy just sent out physician recruitment flyers the day after the bill passed. Impeccable timing......

There is another bubble that is equally vicious that has had an impact as well. It is the college/med school tuition bubble.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Incipient Health Care Bubble?

I've been trying to read the bill/reconciliation to understand how it will impact my business (at least for now, not badly, yet. I do fear more regs to follow though).

The dam thing is more than "long", it really is expansive. (not expensive, although it is that too).

There is so much reach into so many areas of the economy related to healthcare....much gov't spending in areas to support all of the change/redirection needed (training, scholarships, health care corps, etc...)

I hate the whole plan, what a lot of cr*p, bottom line for me is at least $3,000 out of my pocket/year once it fully kicks in, my wife is worried about where the money will come from to pay for all of these "savings"....but if you take the time to review, if only just the headings in the first 15 pages of the senate version, you'll start ot see what the heck they were at least trying to accomplish.

A bubble? I don't know. The one area of careful planning in it is the phased introduction of many facets of it. I don't think the insurance co's wanted to see too much change and there's no doubt they'll get through it ok, but I don't see bubble.

A friend suggested that the insurance companies may spin of divisions focused on this aspect of work, or continue as is, and become more like quasi'gov't agencies like Fannie and Freddie.

Dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Incipient Health Care Bubble?

Does anyone see any possibility of a new bubble rising out of healthcare reform?

Perhaps the so-called U.S. healthcare reform is one of the final acts of one of the great bubbles of human history - the Anglo-American empire of the last couple of centuries.