What ever happend to $2000/oz gold?

[Ben]

Re: What ever happend to $2000/oz gold?

If you stretch out the scale enough... it becomes linear.

[Jay]

Re: What ever happend to $2000/oz gold?

No, it does not.

It looks like an exponent 257 * exp(0.00045 * x) where x is number of days since Feb 7, 2001 (the R square for this is approx 98%).

If the spot price is below the trend by 10%+, I buy GLD, and sometimes coins. If it is above the trend by 10%+, I sell GLD.

This trend keeps going for almost 10 years, and there is no evidence of it being broken, small market/political events notwithstanding (Lehman, Greece etc.). There is also no evidence, market manipulation will end. I don't care as long as the trend stays intact.

Medved, mind showing me the resource you use to implement your function against the gold price? I really like your idea, hope you don't mind if I borrow it.

[medved]

Re: What ever happend to $2000/oz gold?

Medved, mind showing me the resource you use to implement your function against the gold price? I really like your idea, hope you don't mind if I borrow it.

I am absolutely against it. :mad:

Like I always say, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt borrow and forget to return.;)

OTOH, this is free advice and worth its weight in gold, so here it goes.

I just took the 10-year POG graph at Kitco, printed it on a big piece of paper and measured Y-coordinate (POG) for early Feb. every year (I did it on Feb 7/2010). On one hand this is inaccurate, on the other hand the measurement noise is so small compared to the natural volatility, you can forget about it. I put all the data in Excel and did the exponential trend on the graph. That's all.

[*T*]

Re: What ever happend to $2000/oz gold?

I am absolutely against it. :mad:

Like I always say, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt borrow and forget to return.;)

OTOH, this is free advice and worth its weight in gold, so here it goes.

I just took the 10-year POG graph at Kitco, printed it on a big piece of paper and measured Y-coordinate (POG) for early Feb. every year (I did it on Feb 7/2010). On one hand this is inaccurate, on the other hand the measurement noise is so small compared to the natural volatility, you can forget about it. I put all the data in Excel and did the exponential trend on the graph. That's all.

Or, just draw a best-fit straight line on a log scale graph, as I did above. Exactly the same.

[krakknisse]

Re: What ever happend to $2000/oz gold?

Medved, mind showing me the resource you use to implement your function against the gold price? I really like your idea, hope you don't mind if I borrow it.

Use this curve fitting tool online:
http://zunzun.com/
and get your prices from here:
http://lbma.org.uk/stats/goldfixg
or here:
http://www.measuringworth.org/gold/