Oil falls because of ........WHAT?

[Mega]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2C4&refer=home

In short they say that higher rates (nice that "They" now admit their coming) will drive down the price of oil in the furture.

Bollicks!

World demand is growning and growing...i heard it said that if the average China man can lift his standard of living to that of the average Mexian then World demand for oil will go from 70 million barrels a day to 140 barrels a day.

In short allowing for weather/terror etc the price will climb.

AND.

As the $ falls the price will be driven higher (inflation).

I wish people would wake up and smell the coffee!
Mega

[Tet]

Re: Oil falls because of ........WHAT?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2C4&refer=home

In short they say that higher rates (nice that "They" now admit their coming) will drive down the price of oil in the furture.

Bollicks!

World demand is growning and growing...i heard it said that if the average China man can lift his standard of living to that of the average Mexian then World demand for oil will go from 70 million barrels a day to 140 barrels a day.

In short allowing for weather/terror etc the price will climb.

AND.

As the $ falls the price will be driven higher (inflation).

I wish people would wake up and smell the coffee!
Mega

Some things to be careful of, I don't believe there is an average Chinaman for one. China in December opened up the world's largest hydro-plant at Three Gorges and started production on the world's second largest hydro-plant in December. From memory I believe the Three Gorge plant is producing the equiv. amount of power as 20-nuclear power plants. By 2020 the average Chinaman will have access to nuclear power from one of fifty brand new nuclear power plants. This means starting now China will start having four nuclear power plants go on line every year until then. In the next ten years China will be the largest producer of solar power and wind power. Some time at the end of this year or the beginning of next the Siberian oil pipeline will start delivering several million barrels per day of hydro-carbons to that average Chinaman and neither Wall Street nor London will have anything to say about what Russia charges China for each barrel, it certainly won't be d0llars. If China were worried about power and oil they would start to talk to the Russians about NG, and China hasn't done that yet.

When Wall Street has an endless hype on the supply of oil running out, one really should look into the demand, because it's dropping. Current price reduction is not rate related but weather related, meaning Artic production and deliveries have kicked back into gear after being frozen in for the winter. Check out deliveries from Primorsk and Sakhalin II, both heavily weather dependant.

[Guest]

Re: Oil falls because of ........WHAT?

Tet - You wrote:

<< If China were worried about power and oil they would start to talk to the Russians about NG, and China hasn't done that yet. >>

With respect - You have not been doing the required reading on what's happening to A) Cantarell (Mexico - catastrophic decline just the past two years), B) Saudi Ghawar (suging water cut and highly indicative tertiary oil recovery techniques now standard), C) Kuwait Burgan - a high profile acknowledgement just months ago of peaked production by Kuwaiti Oil Ministry) D) North Sea (catastrophic decline), E) North Slope Alaska (has-been), F) Caspian oil (acknowledged to be highly problematic w/ very high sulphur), G) reports of very near term anticipated peak Russian production. Got any other global super-majors to mention?

These super-majors account for 70%+ of production in their respective nations!! Other than Caspian Sea, we've not found a new super major in 30 years, despite aerial 3D seismic technology employed globally - and a full court press searching for 30 years!

I assure you, China is " very worried " about sourcing power - even just looking out ten years.

Tet, for all that you are very well informed on financial flows, you seem so irritated with the "peak oil twits" and their presumed groupthink that an overwhelming body of current reports seem to leave you unaware of some very large trends staring us right in the face today.

I'm 100% with Mega (and several others of us here who carefully follow the breaking news) on this topic - it's calling out loud and clear for your careful reevaluation.

Just tune in to Jim Puplava at Financial Sense on a few weekend sessions as he interviews sober minded, agnostic, senior people in the oil industry and you'll find your conclusions seriously challenged. I assure you these oil geologists have no interest in hobnobbing with the chummy "peakster" oil community. They just call it the way they see it.

There are DOZENS of geologists with 20 -30 years in the industry who are in a state of amazemant at the mass myopia present today in Washington and in Congress about the energy crisis that is barrelling toward this country.

I understand about your being a contrarian, and I also dislike group think - but I assure you, your thinking on this point is still very much in the majority, not the minority!

[Tet]

Re: Oil falls because of ........WHAT?

Tet - You wrote:

<< If China were worried about power and oil they would start to talk to the Russians about NG, and China hasn't done that yet. >>

With respect - You have not been doing the required reading on what's happening to A) Cantarell (Mexico - catastrophic decline just the past two years), B) Saudi Ghawar (suging water cut and highly indicative tertiary oil recovery techniques now standard), C) Kuwait Burgan - a high profile acknowledgement just months ago of peaked production by Kuwaiti Oil Ministry) D) North Sea (catastrophic decline), E) North Slope Alaska (has-been), F) Caspian oil (acknowledged to be highly problematic w/ very high sulphur), G) reports of very near term anticipated peak Russian production. Got any other global super-majors to mention?

God what I would give to be able to work less and make more money. Every field your refer to is producing more revenue, as a businessman I can assure you nothing else matters.

These super-majors account for 70%+ of production in their respective nations!! Other than Caspian Sea, we've not found a new super major in 30 years, despite aerial 3D seismic technology employed globally - and a full court press searching for 30 years!

Almost all of Russia's exports occur in six months of the year, what happens when Russia figures out how to export for twelve months not six? The pipeline to China will flow 365 days a year that's for sure. Russia hasn't even gotten started exporting oil.

I assure you, China is " very worried " about sourcing power - even just looking out ten years.

China is very worried about ally's and defeating the brits and the americans, nothing else. Not one Natural Gas deal signed with Russia, not one and how easy would that be? What does China know that in addition to the oil they don't need Russian gas.

Tet, for all that you are very well informed on financial flows, you seem so irritated with the "peak oil twits" and their presumed groupthink that an overwhelming body of current reports seem to leave you unaware of some very large trends staring us right in the face today.

Hundreds of Nuclear Power Plants are getting ready to come on-line in the next twenty years, over 50 in China, over 30 in Russia, 20 in Iran, 20 in India and 80 in the rest of the world you should be concerned about Peak Uranium. It's Peak Demand for oil that's the concern, everything points to a decline. How does the US and the Brits rule the world if the Petrol D0llar doesn't command the respect it once did?

I'm 100% with Mega (and several others of us here who carefully follow the breaking news) on this topic - it's calling out loud and clear for your careful reevaluation.

Just tune in to Jim Puplava at Financial Sense on a few weekend sessions as he interviews sober minded, agnostic, senior people in the oil industry and you'll find your conclusions seriously challenged. I assure you these oil geologists have no interest in hobnobbing with the chummy "peakster" oil community. They just call it the way they see it.

Sorry but I live in San Diego, I've dropped by Puplava's place and I'm not impressed.

There are DOZENS of geologists with 20 -30 years in the industry who are in a state of amazemant at the mass myopia present today in Washington and in Congress about the energy crisis that is barrelling toward this country.

Hundreds of Ukranian and Russian geologists who say differently.

I understand about your being a contrarian, and I also dislike group think - but I assure you, your thinking on this point is still very much in the majority, not the minority!

In this I'm a contraian, I've checked and people I know tell me that's the case.

Once again though, if we all bet on the same thing there would be no winner, how boring would that be?

[Guest]

Re: Oil falls because of ........WHAT?

Tet: I'm also a San Diegan. And I've been heavily (and very profitably) invested in Uranium juniors and majors for the past four years. There is obviously a Uranium production deficit today (price action?), and it will persist for another five years or so. Uranium is about as common as zinc globally - as the world shifts ever more heavily toward it, it's production will meet the challenge (just barely), together with breeder reactors. I'm looking carefully at the exit from this sector this year or next as it's going to be increasingly volatile, and in that area "volatile" is an understatement. However this elevator will probably keep rising.

What will fail the demand challenge with startling clarity - really soon - will be petroleum and all hydrocarbons production - even if we get a little wisdom about a crisis brewing and adopt some very aggressive easement of offshore drilling bans worldwide - There should develop a supply / demand impact point centered (evidently, if you look around at prime candidates) between the extremely rapid industrialising 1/3+++ of global population that clamors blindly for even a tenth of a western lifestyle, and a hydrocarbons production rate that is meandering right over it's deceptively quiet and unannounced peak this year or next year - such that this debate will be starkly academic within 5-6 years.

Everything you see at play in geopolitics today has veered towards energy - like iron filings to a powerfull magnet, the entire world is beginning to think of this as THE issue to exclusion of practically all others in this century - why is this occurring?

My take-away from all this is that the gold price action of the past seven years is not arising due to competitive global currency debasements primarily - that's a secondary factor - the truly huge event about to tip the world on it's ear (and this is where gold price action is acting truly prescient) is the impending collsion between rapid industrialisation of half the world - with excruciating precision on a collision course within the very same half decade - historically simultaneous - to the cusp of global hydrocarbon production. The dislocation in this impact will outstrip all other dislocations.

I know "peak oil" is regarded with skepticism and considered a "dumbed down issue" by a majority of this community - it's practically the sole issue I believe I-Tulip has greatly mis-estimated. Having said that much, I'll shut up now - and keep reading other's comments on these pages on matters to do with economics, about which I am largely untutored. Not wishing to make a fool of myself I have little or nothing to add to these many worthy commentators other than to find myself getting steadily more depressed at the prospects we all face.

[Mega]

Re: Oil falls because of ........WHAT?

There is much that can be done, Bio-diesel can be made and in the 70's ICI sold man made petrol. But this idea Wall street has that inflation will kill off oil demand as it did in Asia in the 90's simply won't wash.

WORLD INFLATION is on the march, which will mean World rates will hit the roof. However i see Oil staying at this price range ($65-$75).

Unless the $ has a bad fall.
Mike