Toyota Scare

[D-Mack]

Re: Toyota Scare

Or with a cell phone in one hand and a cheeseburger in the other, while steering with your knees?

Maybe she could blame it on on the car, too

Megan Barnes Driving While Shaving! Fla. Woman Arrested After Crash, Grooming "Bikini Area" Say Cops


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_1...76-504083.html

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Toyota Scare

The "panic" issue is valid and very real.



Despite the repetitive training, despite the procedures and mock drills, despite having all the required equipment immediately to hand, in some cases safety men observing a workmate go down would rush into the release zone without first donning their own breathing apparatus - exactly what they were taught not to do. In every such instance it meant two rescues instead of one, and in a few cases the result was two fatalities.

Training aircraft pilots involves the same challenge...an improper action in response to a routine situation can create a disasterous result. The Colgan Air/Continental Connection Flt 3407 turboprop crash at Buffalo a year ago is a classic example of this...the pilot's initial and continuing reaction was exactly the opposite of what he had been trained to do, and fifty lives and a perfectly good airplane were destroyed.

So, I agree, it's difficult to know how the human mind will respond in conditions of surprise and panic...compared to the relaxed environment of a beer with buddies...;)

Indeed. It is popular to say that people rise to the occasion and while that may be true of the occasional by stander hero, the reality is that people fall back to their lowest level of training; mental and muscle memory.

In aviation, the saying goes "train the way you fly and fly the way you train".

In the heat of battle, when the panic is beginning to rise up, training is your friend. It is the life preserver you swim to. Conversely, in civilian driving, training consists of a 20 page DMV booklet on the meaning of traffic signs and a test of parallel parking skills. No emergency training whatsoever. So it is no wonder someone like the Prius driver has to be "talked down".

[metalman]

Re: Toyota Scare

I pretty certain the interlock is only when shifting the transmission out of "Park" after the engine is running. This is one outcome of the infamous Audi "uncontrolled acceleration when in Reverse" from 20 odd years ago. Probably to avoid the tort lawyers the car makers introduced the interlock to make sure the driver had his/her foot on the brake pedal before shifting out of "Park" and into "Reverse".

I am quite certain that if the vehicle is in one of the forward drive gears you can get it all the way to "Neutral" while it is running, and while it is in motion, regardless of whether your foot is on the brake.

By the way, nice Vid. That car he hit must be the only rust free Vega left in America [or anywhere else].

you are correct! so why don't the drivers of these cars do that? panic?

[BK]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

A friend could not understand why I would defend Toyota. My friend was enraged that I could defend Toyota.

I'm mechanically inclined and love machinery. One thing I've learned in life is humans seem more unpredictable than a machine.

Machines can have manufacturing flaws, parts wear out and sometimes break down at the worst times. But, machines don't panic, they aren't emotional, they don't have nervous breakdowns, and never-never-never require psychological counseling.

[GRG55]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

A friend could not understand why I would defend Toyota. My friend was enraged that I could defend Toyota.

I'm mechanically inclined and love machinery. One thing I've learned in life is humans seem more unpredictable than a machine.

Machines can have manufacturing flaws, parts wear out and sometimes break down at the worst times. But, machines don't panic, they aren't emotional, they don't have nervous breakdowns, and never-never-never require psychological counseling.

I'm with you!

My wife's passion is training horses. I think it's a dangerous passtime. I like to mess with machinery, which used to include flying light planes. She thinks that's a dangerous passtime.

My argument is that machinery will always do exactly the same perfectly predictable thing over and over again when handled exactly the same way. In my opinion animals don't fit that pattern.

We will never agree. ;)

[strittmatter]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

But, machines don't panic, they aren't emotional, they don't have nervous breakdowns, and never-never-never require psychological counseling.

Moreover, methinks the machines have become quite aware of this flawed human condition, however I just don't think they should use that as license to take advantage of it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Mf3PQU_Ayk 1:55 min

[c1ue]

Re: Toyota Scare

My initial reaction was suspicion of a combination of export bashing, media sensationalism, and maybe Government Motors.

But at this point it is clear the problem is ongoing.

Whatever the provenance, Toyota has STILL yet to figure out what is going on.

What they are doing now seems to be a classic case of damage control: rather than take the immediate hit of suspending Prius operations until the problem is identified, Toyota appears to have elected to fight via opposing media stories/ads.

Each day that passes with yet another incident - no matter how relatively rare - is another nail in their coffin.

From the little credible analysis I've seen, the problem does appear to be software and/or electronic hardware related.

But it is irrelevant how rare. Normal automotive electronics components are 5 years in the making - that's how long the design and testing cycle is (or at least was 5 years ago).

Furthermore because of this long design cycle - it is unlikely that the components are made using the much more delicate and unpredictable semi manufacturing processes of today. In 1998 when I last made a direct foray into the automotive electronics market, the then current design process was 0.25 micron - the automotive guys were still using the 0.5 micron and larger geometries (2 generations behind). In 2005, the delta was 0.13 um vs. 0.35 um (2.5 generations).

My argument is that machinery will always do exactly the same perfectly predictable thing over and over again when handled exactly the same way. In my opinion animals don't fit that pattern.

This might hold true for purely mechanical machinery - assuming wear isn't a factor - but it does not hold true for anything involving electronics.

For one thing, all electronics have wear - the newer, the more factors like electromigration, hot electrons, etc etc.

Secondly, all electronics operate through software. If you've ever worked on a major software project, you know that anything over a million lines of code is guaranteed to have 'personality': the semi-coherent, many times modified, rarely tested 10% to 30% of the code. Even smaller sets of software can have this happen.

[GRG55]

Re: Toyota Scare

My initial reaction was suspicion of a combination of export bashing, media sensationalism, and maybe Government Motors.

But at this point it is clear the problem is ongoing.

Whatever the provenance, Toyota has STILL yet to figure out what is going on.

What they are doing now seems to be a classic case of damage control: rather than take the immediate hit of suspending Prius operations until the problem is identified, Toyota appears to have elected to fight via opposing media stories/ads.

Each day that passes with yet another incident - no matter how relatively rare - is another nail in their coffin.

From the little credible analysis I've seen, the problem does appear to be software and/or electronic hardware related.

But it is irrelevant how rare. Normal automotive electronics components are 5 years in the making - that's how long the design and testing cycle is (or at least was 5 years ago).

Furthermore because of this long design cycle - it is unlikely that the components are made using the much more delicate and unpredictable semi manufacturing processes of today. In 1998 when I last made a direct foray into the automotive electronics market, the then current design process was 0.25 micron - the automotive guys were still using the 0.5 micron and larger geometries (2 generations behind). In 2005, the delta was 0.13 um vs. 0.35 um (2.5 generations).



This might hold true for purely mechanical machinery - assuming wear isn't a factor - but it does not hold true for anything involving electronics.

For one thing, all electronics have wear - the newer, the more factors like electromigration, hot electrons, etc etc.

Secondly, all electronics operate through software. If you've ever worked on a major software project, you know that anything over a million lines of code is guaranteed to have 'personality': the semi-coherent, many times modified, rarely tested 10% to 30% of the code. Even smaller sets of software can have this happen.

The machinery I like to mess with is machinery...much of it would be considered ancient and quaint by most of the sophisticates that hang around here...

Regarding software, some time back I posted this comment on another thread...

...If the computers in our cars were as difficult to use, as unreliable & prone to failure, and as crappy as the computer on our desk, we would have long ago gone on a buyers strike and insisted the automakers remove them. Why we put up with the garbage sold to us by Microsoft and their hardware vendors...

I occurs to me that perhaps the Toyota circumstances demonstrate that we've now reached that point...:p

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Toyota Scare

The machinery I like to mess with is machinery...much of it would be considered ancient and quaint by most of the sophisticates that hang around here...

Regarding software, some time back I posted this comment on another thread...I occurs to me that perhaps the Toyota circumstances demonstrate that we've now reached that point...:p

I agree.

Some years ago I did research on safety-critical software -this was for railway track signaling and control equipment. Our results showed (again) that software of even modest complexity can't be proven to be safe, meaning entirely predictable under all circumstances. The computing machine can assume a gazillion different states, and it’s not practical to identify and evaluate each of them.

The situation was very cool. Canadian Pacific Railway had a train parked on a lonely stretch of track above the arctic circle and the following train knew all about the stopped train ahead. When the following train approached slowly, they saw the track signal that should have been red was actually green. This is very bad. Could cause an actual train wreck.

CP Rail had the presence of mind to leave everything standing that way, and called the equipment mfg. Mfg said “you must be mistaken, that’s impossible”. CPRail said “We expected you to say this. Take the next flight to Montreal and get in our helicopter. Dress warm and bring design engineers. We’ll show you.” We were hired to independently review hardware and software.

What impressed me was the fastidious care that had been put into the code (and fail-safe hardware), they had done everything right to the highest standards. Still the digital device had failed in service in an unsafe mode.

[BiscayneSunrise]

I have been in the aviation industry for many years and something like this has been an ongoing concern with the Fly By Wire airplanes, especially the Airbuses.

The first thing to remember is that whenever a new technology is introduced it always experiences some teething pains if for no other reason than the operators haven't been fully trai

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

My argument is that machinery will always do exactly the same perfectly predictable thing over and over again when handled exactly the same way.

You haven't been programming any computers recently have you?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

You haven't been programming any computers recently have you?

How true.

The techniques the railway guys used in their digital device were amazing, very clever. Still, it failed in an unsafe mode.

Back in prehistoric times railway logic was implemented with relays. Big expensive "vital relays" with jeweled bearings, hermetically sealed glass cases, and contacts that could not weld (carbon and silver contact points). One could always depend on gravity to move the relay downwards if power failed, so the designer always knew the state of every logic element if power failed to one or all elements. The resulting device was unbelievably expensive and huge for even the modest logic of a single pair of track siding switches.

Also unbelievably reliable. Some are about a hundred years old and still in daily service in the subways in New York.

[jmdpet]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

Some are asking questions:

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/12/toy...l-fumento.html

http://overlawyered.com/2010/03/toyo...-im-skeptical/

[GRG55]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

You haven't been programming any computers recently have you?

Being first a mechanical engineer, my definition of machinery is naturally limited to those devices with physical parts that move relative to one another...something more than the cooling fan...

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Toyota Scare- human failure rate is higher than a Toyota failure Rate

Being first a mechanical engineer, my definition of machinery is ...

Being first a software engineer, the analog/digital devices necessary to connect the genius of my code to uglies of the physical world are beneath my dignity to worry about .