Skeet shoot time

[LargoWinch]

Re: Skeet shoot time

Definitely. And, it will apply to everything, not only to gold.

E.g., there will be a lot of trade barriers, therefore high customs fees. So, there will be a big black market for the smuggled stuff. Also, when you need some medication which is in tight supply, you will be able to bribe your pharmacist to get it etc. Many people that think the gov’t can take care of every step of our lives, and it is supposed to prevent these black market activites. The reality will be very different.

The only consolation is, inflation will not be too high. :rolleyes:

Already happening here.

[raja]

Re: Skeet shoot time

Sell your gold and buy real estate.

Don't you think it's a bit early to buy real estate?

[shiny!]

Re: Skeet shoot time

Perhaps. But more likely money goes offshore to buy and hold it there.

Big money, yes, but not the average person who buys a little bit from the local coin shop whenever they can afford it. Little buyers don't deal in such large amounts of money for offshore accounts.

[GRG55]

Re: Skeet shoot time

Big money, yes, but not the average person who buys a little bit from the local coin shop whenever they can afford it. Little buyers don't deal in such large amounts of money for offshore accounts.

You'd be surprised...;)

[oddlots]

Re: Best answer so far!

My vote for best answer yet:

Good call. Unlucky's insight proves how absurd it is to talk about gold "supply and demand" fundamentals as if it were any other commodity. (This is simply a category mistake.) This also vindicates Raz's point that it at least acts like a currency. All the gold ever mined is still in existence somewhere, save a miniscule amount of wastage. Massive amounts of it - at least relative to new supply - trade everyday.

You rightly ask, does this make any sense. Well, no. Except that it makes more sense than everything else in the current landscape.

Put another way, I sympathise with your discomfort with the idea of gold. But consider this: if the mind is repelled by the way money is created by fractional reserve banking, it is surely driven stark-raving mad by the shadow banking system: its leverage piled on leverage, its Enron style accounting and - most of all - the obvious dependence of governments and their central banks on this "system" and their utter helplessness in the face of its failure.

In this context I think gold makes screaming good sense. And a lot of very demanding reforms would have to occur before I thought differently.

There's another thread of thought here that I'd like to tease out and think through here - but I haven't got the time to do it properly at the mo. It touches upon the libertarian impulse which is very much alive at itulip. I don't "identify" - to use an ugly, contemporary turn of phrase - as libertarian, but I admire a central insight to it. I think it goes something like this: unless an individual's confidence in the system is genuine it's worthless.*

I think there's a showdown coming between the technocrats that don't believe there is, right now, a fundamental question of legitimacy at stake in politics (and so markets) and - what I would suggest are - the radical democrats who think this is exactly what is at stake. What makes it ultimately confusing is that "radical democrat" in my invented usage here would drawstring together everyone from Jim Grant to Michael Hudson.

I can hear the guffaws as I propose to spin that theory out. I think coach just called a time out.

Later. zzzz


* I suspect that this is why Soros said that gold is the "ultimate" bubble.

[medved]

Re: Skeet shoot time

Are your being sarcastic? America is not corrupt? Real estate is a good investment right now?

America is moderately corrupt. China or Russia much more so. When American gov't grows to the size of Chinese gov't, it will be just as corrupt.

Regarding real estate I agree, it is a bit too early. OTOH, the gov't will always encourage speculation in real estate and discourage speculation in gold. So, eventually there will be a moment when swapping your gold for real estate will be a good move. I just don't see it happening for at least several years.

[dbooksta]

Re: Best answer so far!

Good call. Unlucky's insight proves how absurd it is to talk about gold "supply and demand" fundamentals as if it were any other commodity. (This is simply a category mistake.) This also vindicates Raz's point that it at least acts like a currency. All the gold ever mined is still in existence somewhere, save a miniscule amount of wastage. Massive amounts of it - at least relative to new supply - trade everyday.

You rightly ask, does this make any sense. Well, no. Except that it makes more sense than everything else in the current landscape.

I am certainly concerned about inflation protection, but I agree with Rick Bookstaber's arguments that gold -- especially in the present -- is far too speculative to be long.

So I diversify my equity holdings internationally and most of my long-term bonds are inflation-linked. My less-liquid inflation hedges consist primarily of real estate. If I had enough capital I would probably prefer to accumulate farm land at current prices.