A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

[Tet]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

As long as we're on fad stocks - what about CROX - I'd hate to hijack this thread, where's an appropriate place to discuss that?


btw- I should have been buying puts instead of blabbering about it. AAPL dropped 4 points today :eek:

Good thing we didn't talk about CROX yesterday, it was up another 5% today, wow. Here's the chart please go ahead and talk away.





I know absolutely nothing about this one so please do fill me in, looks like judging from the chart (Especially that HUGE gap it left open) I do need to know more.

This just in on the Apple watch as well.
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?cl...=1181595445138
Wall St. Confidential: Cramer Says Apple Is Far From Its Top

Careful above link is a video, but it has been my experience to note that Cramer does like to announce tops this way, I'd say Apple is still 10% away from a top and Cramer can easily say that 10% is far from it's top.

[TraderJoe]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

This just in on the Apple watch as well.
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?cl...=1181595445138
Wall St. Confidential: Cramer Says Apple Is Far From Its Top

Careful above link is a video, but it has been my experience to note that Cramer does like to announce tops this way, I'd say Apple is still 10% away from a top and Cramer can easily say that 10% is far from it's top.

ROFL. Funny, Cramer was pimping AAPL every day for the last two weeks, telling everbody to keep loading up on it. BUY BUY BUY

Now, I see that video came out at 12:16PM EST.....however.......

NOTE: -> He was on CNBC later in the afteroon as AAPL starting dropping like a rock today after 2:00 CST (Stop Trading Show on CNBC). At that time he said that investors shouldn't be greedy and they should have been taking money off the table. :rolleyes:

:confused::rolleyes:

[Tet]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

ROFL. Funny, Cramer was pimping AAPL every day for the last two weeks, telling everbody to keep loading up on it. BUY BUY BUY

Now, I see that video came out at 12:16PM EST.....however.......

NOTE: -> He was on CNBC later in the afteroon as AAPL starting dropping like a rock today after 2:00 CST (Stop Trading Show on CNBC). At that time he said that investors shouldn't be greedy and they should have been taking money off the table. :rolleyes:

:confused::rolleyes:

Cramer's magic I guess is no matter what he says he's right, because he says a stock is going higher and lower all in the same sentence. I looked at one of the lists he was hyping the other day and every stock he hyped he was helping somebody unload, everyone of them was well over it's 50-day moving average. A few years ago a forum I was reading tried to come up with a Cramer market return and it wasn't very favorable, amazing the cows are still buying his routine.

[TraderJoe]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

Cramer's magic I guess is no matter what he says he's right, because he says a stock is going higher and lower all in the same sentence. I looked at one of the lists he was hyping the other day and every stock he hyped he was helping somebody unload, everyone of them was well over it's 50-day moving average. A few years ago a forum I was reading tried to come up with a Cramer market return and it wasn't very favorable, amazing the cows are still buying his routine.

cramerwatch.org


The Score

	49.33 %	50.01 %
	50.65 %	50.01 %
	0.24 %	0.43 %

Since November 1, 2005, Jim and Leonard's overall records are:

Jim Cramer - 138 wins, 138 losses, 48 ties
Leonard the Wonder Monkey - 138 wins, 138 losses, 48 ties

Ongoing Stats:
Jim Cramer is right 49.27% of the time.
Jim Cramer's picks average a 0.24% ROI after 30 days.
Leonard the Wonder Monkey is right 49.95% of the time.
Leonard's picks average a 0.43% ROI after 30 days.

[TraderJoe]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

Good thing we didn't talk about CROX yesterday, it was up another 5% today, wow. Here's the chart please go ahead and talk away.





I know absolutely nothing about this one so please do fill me in, looks like judging from the chart (Especially that HUGE gap it left open) I do need to know more.

***As for CROX, I don't do too much charting analysis, but what I do know is that time and time again.......the fad stocks get punished.

Case in point:

pull up these charts--->

1) KKD
2) TASR (don't forget to factor in the multitude of splits)
3) SBUX

I haven't done a full analysis on CROX, and any analysis I do will probably prove to be futile. These always behave irrationally, until one day they don't.....the problem is that you can never tell when that day will be.

It can be prohibitively expensive AND painful to maintain short positions on fad stocks (whether purely short the stock or via long ptus).....but if you have the capital and guts to stick with them it pays off. [eventually]

What I'm expecting with CROX is more upside first, I may even go long for a bit. The stock has much more room to the up, people are still buying these things hand-over-fist. I would imagine the stock could double, maybe split before or after a doubling.......and at some point it will end in bloodshed.

[TraderJoe]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

With that said, I'm now long the Sep 125 calls.

[Tet]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

Krispy is a mob owned and controlled stock, without a doubt you will find no better up and down mover for those in the know, the returns are incredible. From July low to Jan high Krispy returned 85% and from Jan high to recent low Krispy lost 41%, you will be hard pressed to find a better return for those knowing how to bet direction. Sugar does have some addictive properties, so does tobacco & heroin. I'm not sure I view Krispy dispite all it's fad of being truly a fad stock. There is nothing better than a cash business to come up with what-ever number you want to come up with.

[DemonD]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

KKD has had insane management problems, for like 2 years they didn't come out with the 10Q's because there were severe accounting irregularities.

Any company with "accounting irregularities" I do my best to stay the hell away from on the long side. History has shown that this type of problem is about the worst a company can have in terms of retail investing.

As for Cramer, since 2/27/06 until today, his accuracy has been 46.56%, although I couldn't give a return number, but it would definitely be in the positive.

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx...00000000000024

SBUX - quality company, is it a buy here? SBUX and WFMI are the 2 stocks that have been beaten up recently, high quality companies with good futures, although in a recession both may be beat up more. Both I would love to own on the long side but I'm waiting for fire sale prices, and if they don't happen the c'est la vie.

CROX (Crocs Co.)- I would not touch this stock up or down with a 10 foot pole. As a fad stock, you can get caught in a short squeeze. What is Crocs? Well what they do is they make those rubber/plastic shoes that you see nurses and a lot of medical (non-doctor) workers wear. They are comfortable, they breathe, they aren't too expensive, and they are tough and easy to clean (you know if you're a nurse and get pooped or bled on, just wash em off). So why is this a bad stock? Here are the reasons:

1. Insider selling. Not necessarily a sign of weakness, but certainly not bullish.
2. ZERO MOAT!!! If you see someone wearing Crocs, it is very likely they are from another brand. There are so many knock-offs, it's insane, and they are very cheap and easy to make. Barriers to entry virtually nil.
3. Fad? Crocs have more utility than UGG boots (barf at them), but it certainly is a fad that will likely at least simmer down, if not go away.

So yes, a 45 p/e ratio for a company with no moat, high insider selling, no barriers to entry in their field, really, I'm staying away on both sides of that one. Their past performance has been stellar (quarterly earnings growth and stock price appreciation both over 200% yoy), but I'm just not touching this one, in the same way I stay the hell away from HANS (hansen natural brands, makers of monster energy drink and hansen sodas).

p.s. not to pimp out the fool, i also play the caps "game" and it's a fun little past-time. it's also a good way to track not just cramer but to see how other analysts and investment banks are doing with their picks.

[Guest]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall


I can't get energized trying to figure out whether APL is a short or a long - yes it's pricey, and yes it might even be a decent short.

But if stock watching is tedious - and most of us only want to make a humble buck off the effort, why mess around with glamorous consumer products stocks when we can buy a world leader in oil well drilling technology with a total arm lock on the biggest ventures in oil exploration worldwide - which still has a PE of 10?

Schlumberger is flat out market leader - in what promises to be a two decade long bull market in energy - after delivering outsize returns for five to seven years, it still sports a distinctly unglamorous PE of 10 or 11!

Ditto Nabors and Halliburton among the service stocks or Apache in exploration and production. These stocks are dirt cheap. Maybe it's just me, but I think they are superb as inflation hedges. Maybe we take exception to owning Halliburton, but there are a dozen others in this area with the same superb position and fundamentals.

In a bad market downturn it's hard to find a safer play than SLB in today's environment. This stock has a truly global market clamoring for it's services.

Why are these service stock PE's still so low after running up 200% or 300% in four or five years? Could it be the fundamentals of this sector are just getting firmer each year?

Or what about Kinder Morgan, the oil and gas pipeline company? They don't even make money on the price of energy - only on the volume of fuel running through their pipelines.

Over the past decade, Kinder Morgan has increased its dividend payouts by 453% (compared to S&P 500?). They returned total gains of 1,318% ... about 10-times more than regular stocks. Yet this stock's business profile is considered safe enough for grandma's money.

I love Apple products, and they do indeed periodically get really expensive as a stock. But why get involved with Apple at all, when these other juicy money making opportunities are sitting there waiting for us to scoop them up?

[DemonD]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

Luke, what you are saying is absolute truth. The one thing that I don't see decreasing in any world is the average human being's demand for energy. We will run out of oil looooooong before we run out of real estate.

Incidentally, this is a reason why oil companies do not sport high p/e's. Oil drilling and services companies are looked at with a similar eye as mining companies, and proven reserves are a big factor. Many companies are not increasing their proven reserves. One company, Chevron, has done so, and that is why it has done very well recently (beyond just record profits for all oil companies).

Incidentally, this is why I prefer to invest in canadian oil sands companies. My position right now is small, but up a good 25% from my initial purchase in 1/07. The way I buy stocks is I track a whole helluva lot of them. Any time I come across a company that has strong fundamentals, I add it to a watch list. I come up with a fair value (using basic info, fundamentals, p/e ratios and such), and then sit and watch, and I have a max price I will pay for a stock. If the stock is breaking to the downside of where I would buy, I let it sink, until I consider it a screaming buy, at which point I set my limit order, buy it, and sit back and enjoy the market realizing it had undervalued the company in question. I thoroughly enjoy doing this (maybe because I've been pretty good at it in my short career?), but I do enjoy just watching certain stocks. You learn about what kinds of companies are out there, what things are going on in the world.

Specifically with schlumberger, they and occidental petroleum have pretty stellar businesses along with many other oil industry companies. The question is will they be losing reserves (and therefore, revenue) over the next 5-10 years? I haven't researched enough to answer that question, but your point is completely valid. Oil/energy companies that are undervalued, assuming they maintain their fundamental strength, are a GREAT way to invest your money.

But yes, I would agree, AAPL, it's like, wth is going on here. I just seriously stay away. Buying some puts seems like a sensible way if you want to play it to the downside. But I say to hell with that. If apple has another blockbuster quarter with ipod sales, who's to say it won't go to 150 or beyond. Nintendo Wii's are still selling like hotcakes all over the place for 300 bones, and at this point, ipods are seen as almost as necessary as a briefcase or running shoes. And who better to buy your product than repeat customers, eh?

[Guest]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

DemonD - my two cents? - I'd overweight the oil service stocks and producers / explorers - I've become skeptical of the oil sands patch as costs there are soaring. EROEI in the oil sands is plummeting. Also they will suck Alberta dry of water when they really ramp up production... Too many problems there.

Now Alberta - that would be one great place to be a home-owner - You know - Marry a Canadian Girl, get a Canadian passport, and fade the whole US quagmire! :cool:

Oil sands will probably do fine, but SLB and Chevron are a lot more conservative for buy-and-hold. BTW - BHP Billiton is now a "stealth" nuclear stock! Watch their Olympic Dam property put a fire under their shares the next decade.

Also Apache, Cabot, and two personal smaller mid-cap favorites ATPG and RRC - these stocks will soar and keep their low PE's for YEARS out - and will bring home almost as much of a pay-day as your Connacher's or UTS's in the sands patch.

What about Areva - the French national Nuclear Energy company. For high performance and safety, it's a great stock! How's 55% annual returns for 5 years sound, from THE national French nuclear agency? I can't imagine the French letting ANYTHING happen to their flagship nuclear corporation. Seriously - it's a great stock.

As Putin turns the screws on the EU this stock will become one of the brightest blue-chips in Europe. They sell surplus electricity all over the EU.

[Tet]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

I don’t recall seeing anything this overbought for a long, long, time, to the point of mania from the look of the chart. The hype being thrown around for this stock is really amazing as well and it looks to me like the set-up is in place for some major, major, major disappointment.

Doesn't look like these I-Phones are getting much of a premium for those who bought 3 or 4 of them and waited in line for hours so they could be sold on E-bay. Looks like plenty of them in stock on E-bay and they seem to be getting about $40 to $60 extra depending on the sales tax in your area the premium includes shipping.

http://cell-phones.search.ebay.com/i...QQsacatZ146487
E-bay I-Phone

[lb]

Re: A Golden Boy Looks Set for a BIG Fall

I have to say this launch doesn't look so great to me, way to reminiscent of the PS3, not the Wii.