Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

[metalman]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

i understand the perceived value of gold. it is sometimes referred to as "the fourth currency".

only one place that gold is referred to that way... here on this other itulip site.

its intrinsic value is limited to jewelry and some electronics, afaik.

you are at the one site that made a buy & hold argument for gold in 2001 when gold traded @ $265.

to avoid the appearance of trolling, read this stuff google site:itulip.com gold

profits on gold trading are taxed at a relatively high level. this level will only increase if gold's perceived value increases. there's no free lunch, as they say.

a point made frequently here since 2001... yet the 400% returns vs loss for the s&p have made up for the difference between cap gains tax advantage of a stock portfolio over the same period.

i say, don't live in fear. put your money to some good, productive use. some people obviously disagree, or feel safer hoarding gold. to each his own.

not either/or. owning stocks over the past 10 yrs has been a loser. fact.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

Some people with substantial savings need to be wary of trying to spend their way into a job.

Yes, I've seen many people spend good money to buy themselves a bad job. Many owner-operated one or two person situations amount to buying yourself a bad job. Some of my friends have also turned a great hobby into a lousy job and eventually discarded both.

[BadJuju]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

:eek:

:eek:

But yes, there are a lot of barriers to entry for people that want to make it on their own. While I can understand some of the regulations, a lot of it just seems to exist to discourage entrepreneurial ventures. A small bakery, like the one I wish to set up in my kitchen, could net me a tidy income. Even if it ended up only being a profit of $50 per week, that is a lot for someone like me.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

Even if it ended up only being a profit of $50 per week, that is a lot for someone like me.

Just be sure it's not minus $50 per week.

[metalman]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

When you buy gold, you're just buying fear.

Even if things are changing, I'm sure there are business which will succeed in such an environment. Make money and help people adjust to the new realities.

speaking for myself & maybe 1345 others here, bought gold in 2001 because it was underpriced when 99.99% were afraid to buy it. how does that fit into your theory 'when you buy gold, you're just buying fear'?

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

speaking for myself & maybe 1345 others here, bought gold in 2001 because it was underpriced when 99.99% were afraid to buy it. how does that fit into your theory 'when you buy gold, you're just buying fear'?

Makes you one of the smartest guys in the room. With the non-inflation adjusted S&P trading at 1999 price levels , the obvious question becomes: Where's the beef ?

Seems your 400% gain is a number the deniers have a hard time explaining , let alone digesting.


"After the March 2009 low the index moved 62% in six and a half months, but only 4% in the last five and a half months. In our view this is all part of a topping formation that will be followed by a substantial decline in the period ahead." - Why the Rally Can't Be Sustained

Why the Rally Can't Be Sustained
Thursday, March 4, 2010

In our view the strong rally off last year's March low is a contra-cyclical move within a secular bear market that started in March 2000. We have been undergoing a major credit crisis, followed by severe decline in income, a collapse in asset prices and record debt. A number of detailed studies have shown that economic recoveries following such events are of short duration and extremely weak at best. Despite massive efforts at stimulation, we see no reason why the outcome this time will be any different, and the evidence so far supports this view. The economy is going through a process of deleveraging debt that is creating strong headwinds against a self-sustaining recovery.

The major drivers of previous economic recoveries in the post-war period have been housing and consumer spending that was spurred by easy credit conditions. Those drivers are just not working this time around. Despite the herculean efforts of the Fed and the White House, credit still remains tight. Bank loans are down 27% from a year earlier while consumer credit is down 4%, the most since World War II. Although the monetary base has soared over the last 15 months, M2 money supply is down 0.3% and MZM money supply is down 4.2% annualized over the last three months. The strong growth of GDP in the 4th quarter was mostly due to a return to more normal inventory levels while real final sales remained weak. Consumer spending has picked up a bit, but only in comparison to the extremely low level of a year earlier. In the period ahead consumers will continue to be restricted by high unemployment, tight credit conditions, sub-par wage increases, lower net worth and the need to raise savings rates and pay off debt.

A number of factors that helped growth in the past year will no longer be operative in the year ahead. The cash for clunkers program temporarily spurred auto sales, which have reverted back to sluggish sales levels. The housing credit for first-time home buyers goosed housing demand for a while, but the extension of the program does not seem to be having the same effect, and, in any event, ends on April 30th. Furthermore the Fed's $1.25 trillion program to purchase mortgages ends on March 31st. As we pointed out in our comment two weeks ago economic momentum already seems to have peaked in the 4th quarter as a number of recent indicators have come in under expectations.

In addition we don't think the sovereign debt problems have ended with Greece any more than we thought the subprime loan problems ended with Bear Stearns. It remains to be seen whether Greece can carry out its promises of austerity and there is no need for us to dwell on the now well-publicized budding financial crises in the rest of the EU's Southern tier. As we previously pointed out the debt problems have not gone away, but are in the process of being shifted from private to public entities.

Some may wonder why we continue to emphasize the global financial and economic problems and what this has to do with the stock market. In our view this has everything to do with the stock market. The entire rally has been based on the belief that we can undergo a V-shaped recovery and that modern governments just will not allow the kind of unraveling that has followed all other major credit crises. However, governments can only try to halt the malaise by increasing their own debt and running up huge budget deficits that cannot be sustained. In the U.S. we are already seeing the backlash as the public, while still demanding that the government somehow create more jobs, is also rebelling against the prospect of ever-increasing deficits.

Therefore if the market, as we believe, is discounting events that will not happen, the disappointment will be severe---and in a market increasingly dominated by trend players, the rush for the exits can be something to behold. The market peaked on January 19th at 1150 intraday on the S&P 500, declined to 1044 and now has bounced back to 1122. After the March 2009 low the index moved 62% in six and a half months, but only 4% in the last five and a half months. In our view this is all part of a topping formation that will be followed by a substantial decline in the period ahead.

Comstock Partners, Inc.

[metalman]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

Makes you one of the smartest guys in the room. With the non-inflation adjusted S&P trading at 1999 price levels , the obvious question becomes: Where's the beef ?

Seems your 400% gain is a number the deniers have a hard time explaining , let alone digesting.

not me... this...

iTulip.com - Questioning Fashionable Financial Advice: Gold 2001

What Gold Bubble? - Janszen - iTulip.com 2006

Gold update: Gold over $1000 and still no gold bubble - Eric ...

Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

not me... this...

iTulip.com - Questioning Fashionable Financial Advice: Gold 2001

What Gold Bubble? - Janszen - iTulip.com 2006

Gold update: Gold over $1000 and still no gold bubble - Eric ...

Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Seems itulip's 400% gain is a number the deniers have a hard time explaining , let alone digesting.

Humility....ah! the smell of it!

-Joaquin-

[metalman]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

Seems itulip's 400% gain is a number the deniers have a hard time explaining , let alone digesting.

Humility....ah! the smell of it!

-Joaquin-

well... someone had to do 78467 hours of research & analysis to figure it out... all i had to do was read it.

[jtabeb]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

Seems itulip's 400% gain is a number the deniers have a hard time explaining , let alone digesting.

Humility....ah! the smell of it!

-Joaquin-

Now, Now, a 400% return on 30% of a portfolio does not make a 400% total return.

To do that you'd have had to have to ignore Itulip's advice about 70% short term UST and 30% gold portfolio allocation, and gone 100% long on bullion. There are very FEW people willing to do this.

But those that do, sleep like babies.:rolleyes:

[skyson]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

Now, Now, a 400% return on 30% of a portfolio does not make a 400% total return.

To do that you'd have had to have to ignore Itulip's advice about 70% short term UST and 30% gold portfolio allocation, and gone 100% long on bullion. There are very FEW people willing to do this.

But those that do, sleep like babies.:rolleyes:

gold is money is money is money is money is money is money is money...

gosh, shall i continue? ;);)

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

I understand the appeal of gold. It seems like this safe and easy way to hoard your wealth and never become poor.

But life is neither safe nor easy. If you aren't out there, putting your wealth to work, you don't deserve to keep yours.


What I'd like to see is a wealth tax and consumption tax take over from income tax. People should be taxed on their great pile of money or their luxury expenditures but should NOT be taxed on their ability to generate wealth.

The other advantage of that change is it would encourage companies to generate dividends which would rapidly rationalize the stock market.

Those dividends would be immediately piled back into the stock market in hopes of generating more dividends.

[skyson]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

"The case for gold as money is the case for cutting the bureaucrats' budgets. It is therefore the case for the restoration of our liberties. "

Gold Money: Power to the People by Gary North

[jtabeb]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

But life is neither safe nor easy. If you aren't out there, putting your wealth to work, you don't deserve to keep yours.


What I'd like to see is a wealth tax and consumption tax take over from income tax. People should be taxed on their great pile of money or their luxury expenditures but should NOT be taxed on their ability to generate wealth.

The other advantage of that change is it would encourage companies to generate dividends which would rapidly rationalize the stock market.

Those dividends would be immediately piled back into the stock market in hopes of generating more dividends.

See, even Blaze thinks we need a consumption tax.

But you are wrong on the wealth tax. Are we supposed to MAKE people USE their wealth for unproductive business purposes? Fuck, we've been doing that for 30 years and look where it's gotten us.

Returns vs Risk should determine when and HOW people deploy capital. Nothing else, and ESP not a freaking MANDATE to do so! Yes let's waste EVEN MORE CAPITAL on UNPRODUCTIVE business or on OVERCAPACITY.

Come on blaze, you have to admit that people will have an incentive to invest when the conditions are supportive. Do you REALLY think people just sit on capital when THERE ARE BETTER USES FOR IT?

History would argue otherwise.

The point is right now, THERE IS NO GOOD PLACE to deploy capital. And if there is no good place to deploy capital, YOU SAVE, for when conditions are right and the risk/reward ratio is in your favor. Mandating that people deploy capital when conditions are poor is just THEFT, either through taxation (your wealth tax) or through business loss.

Capital holders WILL deploy capital when the conditions are right. Right now, conditions AIN'T right. Don't advocate PUNISHING SOUND JUDGEMENT, my God, isn't that EXACTLY what we want businesspeople to employ, SOUND JUDGEMENT?

The Government can BEST HELP to MAKE CONDITIONS RIGHT, through SYSTEMIC REFORM and prosecutions of criminal fraud. (I haven't seen EITHER, have you?).

So until the Government get's off it's ass and get's serious about reform and accountability, Capital Ain't going to be deployed NOWHERE, NOHOW. And if they TRY TO FORCE IT, It will JUST LEAVE! (As in CAPITAL FLIGHT).

I don't think ANY of us are advocating policies that lead to capital flight (seeing how well they have worked in Russia, Argentina, Zimbabwe, etc.)

And I don't think you actually INTEND advocate for policies that would lead to capital flight, but what you just described above, WOULD MOST ASSUREDLY DO SO.

[vinoveri]

Re: Zero Hedge making cases for physical gold

But life is neither safe nor easy. If you aren't out there, putting your wealth to work, you don't deserve to keep yours.

in other words, as you see it, individuals are not entitled to enjoy their personal property however they see fit;

man, it's attitudes like this that make rule of common law and limited government so important. You are scary dude.

what's saddening is that this view is what the Fed holds as well, evidenced by their creation of a negative real interest rate environment, making everyone speculate to preserve their purchasing power.

"Consume and speculate"; don't even think of saving those earnings with the idea of getting free of the wage slave, debt serf system we've created. We the oligarchs need your labor, which we will pay you for of course, but then expect that you will plow all your earnings back into our "free enterprise", level playing field, "everyone can get rich" fantasy system. It's for everyone's best after all, don't you know ....:p